Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Ashcroft throws weight behind Tom Schweich

Former U.S. Attorney General and Senator John Ashcroft (R) will back state auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R) in the Republican primary.

Schweich's campaign announced the endorsement in an email to supporters this afternoon, just one day after Ashcroft's announcement during a high profile fundraiser in St. Louis Tuesday night.

According to Schweich's campaign, the fundraiser that featured former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) last night attracted some 500 Republicans who gathered in support of Schweich. During that event, an endorsement letter from Aschroft was read.

"As a former law enforcement official and Missouri State Auditor, today I join Gov. Mitt Romney, Amb. John Bolton, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, Sen. Jack Danforth and so many others in endorsing Tom Schweich to be Missouri’s next State Auditor," Ashcroft said in the letter. "Tom has the investigative, audit, legal and management experience for the job. Please express my appreciation to all who support Tom. Convey my respect to Mitt Romney, a great national leader."

Schweich has also been endorsed by Romney, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), and Missouri State Senate Republican Leader Charlie Shields (R), among others.

Schweich's campaign did not say how much was raised at the fundraiser, although we expect a number of large contributions to be reported to the Missouri Ethics Commission on Thursday.

Schweich is currently challenging Missouri House Budget Chairman Allen Icet (R) in the party primary in August. The winner of that primary will likely face incumbent auditor Susan Montee (D).

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Monday, April 26, 2010

Graves Update: Enforce Our Immigration Laws

From Congressman Sam Graves (R):

It is important to remember that almost all of us are the children of immigrants. Our parents or grandparents or great- great-great grandparents came to America because it was and still is a land of opportunity. America as a nation is great because of immigration, not in spite of it.

Even today, America continues to welcome immigrants who come here legally. It is not legal immigration that upsets Americans, it is illegal immigration. Our country has become far too tolerant to those who have broken the law.

This month, I’ve been discussing solutions to our illegal immigration problem; including securing the border and implementing a better procedure for employers to verify that job applicants are legal citizens.

Another solution is to enforce the laws we already have and to make sure that illegal immigrants do not receive taxpayer-funded benefits. According to Numbers USA, for every $1 that illegal immigrants contribute to Social Security, they receive $10 in government-funded benefits. We have to make sure that we are not rewarding people who have broken our laws.

The crowd in Washington wants to do nothing about illegal immigrants because they think it’s impossible to find the millions that are already here illegally. That is like saying that we cannot stop everyone who speeds so we should just stop trying.
This is a nation that was founded on the rule of law. We have to send the message that we are serious about illegal immigration by enforcing our laws. Otherwise, we will never solve the problem.

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Sunday, April 25, 2010

Big political names head to Missouri this week

The coming week will be fairly exciting for political activists on both the left and right as big political names come to events in the Show-Me State.

On Tues., Apr. 27, former Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) will be in St. Louis to campaign for former Ambassador and state auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R).

Tues. evening, Republicans are sponsoring an opposition rally against President Barack Obama's (D) policies in Macon.

On Wed., Obama is scheduled to tour an ethanol plant in Macon. It's not yet clear whether Obama will be making public remarks while in the state.

The White House says Obama's visit is intended to "talk to workers about what they are experiencing during these tough economic times and share ideas for rebuilding our economy in the long term."

Then on Sat., former Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R) and former Republican Presidential candidate Fred Thompson (R) will head to Kansas City for an event sponsored by the Preserving American Liberty PAC. 

"This event will address important topics that the mainstream media usually ignores," PAL PAC's website says. "Whether it is the growing deficit, broken promises from politicians on both sides of the aisle, health care reform that is full of backroom deals, or the inability of Washington to ’stimulate’ and ‘create/save jobs,’ this is an event you will not want to miss!"

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Saturday, April 24, 2010

Obama to visit Northeast Missouri next week, GOP plans opposition rally

President Barack Obama (D) is slated to swing through Macon, Missouri during a series of stops for his "White House to Main Street" tour next week.

Obama is rumored to be planning a visit to an ethanol plant run by POET on Wed., Apr. 28.

Poet's facility in Macon was the first operational ethanol plant in Missouri that now has a capacity of 46 millions per year. According to Poet, the plant currently employs 45 people.

The Missouri Republican Party is planning a rally in opposition to the visit the night before. Although the website Stand Up 4 Freedom indicates the state GOP is sponsoring, a Facebook event invitation encourages Tea Party activists to attend as well. Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) is among those listed as attending the opposition rally.

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Schweich pulls in $80,000 in large contributions so far this April

As April quickly comes to a close, state auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R) managed to pull in another $80,000 in large contributions during the month.

As we reported earlier this month, Schweich currently has a significant fundraising lead over his Republican primary opponent, House Budget Chairman Allen Icet (R). But it looks like Schweich has no plans of slowing his fundraising pace.

According to reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission on contributions over $5,000, Schweich received 8 separate contributions of $10,000 each this month.

Contributors include Anheuser-Busch, C Hager & Sons Hinge Manufacturing in St. Louis, Hunter Engineering Company in Bridgeton, John Mahaffey of Springfield, Access Health Solutions in Sunrise, FL, Maritz, Inc. in Fenton, Mark Burkhart of St. Louis, and Don Musick, III of St. Louis.

During the same time period Icet received one contribution greater than $5,000, from Anheuser-Busch.

Incumbent State Auditor Susan Montee (D) has not reported any contributions over $5,000 so far this month.

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Skelton Weekly Column: Supporting Veterans a Duty and Honor

From Congressman Ike Skelton (D):

As I have often said, our veterans and service men and women are national treasures. They put everything at risk to protect us and the freedoms we hold most dear. Although we owe these men and women, the veterans of wars past and present, a debt that can never fully be repaid, Congress must continue to improve and expand veterans' health services. That is why I supported important veterans measures last week in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The first bill, S. 1963, or the Caregivers and Veterans Omnibus Health Services Act, includes a cluster of bills to expand the scope of several health programs currently available to veterans. The legislation would expand the Veterans Administration's capabilities to serve female patients, provide funding for many expansions of veterans health services in rural areas, and support - both financially and with additional training - the caregivers of disabled and recovering veterans.

Due to the rural nature of Missouri's Fourth Congressional District, many veterans that I know have to travel long distances to receive the care they need and deserve. By setting aside funding specifically for rural health clinics and increasing the mileage reimbursement for those that have to travel, S. 1963 makes health care that much more accessible to those living in Missouri's small towns and farm communities.

I am also pleased with the provisions of the legislation that impact the caregivers of our veterans. Oftentimes, the day-to-day care of a seriously injured or ill veteran is provided by a spouse, child, or parent. These individuals give of themselves gladly, but many are forced to take time off of work or school, leave their jobs, or stop pursuing higher education altogether. And, many caregivers do not have the experience or training to provide the most effective care for their loved one.

The bill I helped pass expands training and education for caregivers, provides access to them for counseling and mental health services, and, for those caring for veterans of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom, provides a monthly stipend and health care through the CHAMPVA program. These caregivers provide a vital service for our veterans, and S. 1963 gives proper consideration for their needs. Last week, the House and Senate unanimously approved this legislation and the President is expected to sign it into law.

The second bill, H. Res. 855, would designate May 1 as "Silver Star Service Banner Day." This resolution, which I cosponsored and was written by fellow Missouri Congressman Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), brings further recognition to those who have been wounded or become ill while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. The resolution passed by voice vote.

These measures illustrate my continued commitment to care for the men and women in uniform - both during and after their military service. They have sacrificed so much for every American and deserve no less.

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Missouri Votes Conservation says outlook for state water regulations is 'grim'

A recent update from a state environmental interest group Missouri Votes Conservation declared the outlook on Missouri's regulations of polluters "Grim" due to what the group calls "clean water foes" in the state legislature.

The legislature is considering a bill, HB 2109, that would continue state water quality permit fees after their authorization expires in 2010. The group cites budget shortfalls as the primary reason these fees must be continued.

"HB 2109 is slated to be heard soon by the full Senate but sadly, key Senate leaders vow to kill it," MVC wrote in a legislative update. "If this happens, Missouri’s water permit program might be subject to a federal takeover."

The last time these fees were increased was 2000, and many find current funding levels inadequate to support the existing regulatory program.

The legislation passed the House by a bipartisan vote of 141-8 and is now being handled by state Sen. Brad Lager (R) in the Senate.

Related Links:
Bill Summary for HB 2109 [2010]

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Cleaver: A very happy Earth Day

From Congressman Emanuel Cleaver (D):

EnergyWorks KC gets $20 million grant for green!

We had a very good Earth Day as a community. As the Kansas City Star reported: “Imagine an energy-efficiency program that helps you figure out the best improvements to make to your home or business, then lines up financing for the work.” Wednesday, I was pleased to join the Vice President at the White House to announce that Kansas City has been awarded $20 million to do just that.

The announcement kicked off five days of Administration events around the 40th anniversary of Earth Day. $452 million in Recovery Act funding was awarded nationally to “ramp-up” energy efficiency building retrofits as part of the announcement. Under the program, communities, governments, private sector companies and non-profit organizations will work together on pioneering and innovative programs for concentrated and broad-based retrofits of neighborhoods and towns – and eventually entire states. These partnerships will support large-scale retrofits and make energy efficiency accessible to hundreds of thousands of homeowners and businesses. The models created through this program are expected to save households and businesses about $100 million annually in utility bills, while leveraging private sector resources, to create what funding recipients estimate at about 30,000 jobs across the country during the next three years.

As a result of our $20 million award, EnergyWorks KC will assist property owners throughout Missouri’s Fifth District to navigate the complex maze of tax credits, rebates, incentives, and low cost financing needed to improve energy efficiency. The Metropolitan Energy Center will host a one-stop shop that will assist home and business owners to identify and select the appropriate improvements, figure out how to pay for those improvements and ensure that the improvements actually reduce their bills over the long term.

At least 2,500 residential, commercial, industrial, educational, non-profit and civic buildings will be retrofitted in our community.

This grant was perhaps the most competitive grant we have yet to be awarded, and leveraged the success of the Green Impact Zone project to increase funding for other neighborhoods. Over 170 applications were received and only 25 were awarded.

The grant required a tremendous 5-to-1 local match, which area private and public organizations committed to further the project. In fact, our local match went far beyond what is required. This $20 million award could leverage nearly $250 million in already agreed upon match.

This is not just more money to do the same old thing. These dollars will put our community in the forefront to fundamentally change the equation and sustain these important energy-efficiency efforts long beyond the span of the Recovery Act. The Vice President’s announcement makes it clear in the eyes of the Department of Energy and the Obama Administration we have moved into a league with some of the most aggressively environmentally conscious cities in the country. The nation is looking to us to lead the way. The work will be hard and the hours long, but the rewards are extremely exciting.

That hard work to be done in our neighborhoods will range from adding insulation to installing more efficient heating and cooling equipment.

What is perhaps even more impressive is the company we will keep among the awardees: Portland, Seattle, New York, Phoenix and Austin — all leaders of the environmental movement. Now, because of the efforts of so many to refocus our attention on creating a green future, we join the list of leaders. Out front is a very good place to be.

In brief, this grant will:
• Retrofit thousand of residential, commercial, industrial, institutional, and public buildings during the project period and additional buildings in the two years after the grant project period;
• Reduce 216 million kWh/year in electricity, 570 million cubic feet/year in natural gas, and 60 million gallons/year in water use, and associated utility bills;
• Develop workforce and job creation/retention of an average of 455 jobs;
• Advocate state and local public policy changes to lower or eliminate barriers to energy efficiency efforts; and
• Create a replicable model for energy efficiency that could be adopted across the region.

The grant asked for “game-changing” ideas. Friends, I think we have delivered.

Full list of awardees:
Austin, Texas - $10 million
Boulder County, Colorado - $25 million
Camden, New Jersey - $5 million
Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning - $25 million
Greater Cincinnati Energy Alliance, Ohio - $17 million
Greensboro, North Carolina - $5 million
Indianapolis, Indiana - $10 million
Kansas City, Missouri - $20 million
Los Angeles County, California - $30 million
Lowell, Massachusetts - $5 million
State of Maine - $30 million
State of Maryland - $20 million
State of Michigan - $30 million
State of Missouri - $5 million
Omaha, Nebraska - $10 million
State of New Hampshire - $10 million
New York State Research and Development Authority - $40 million
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - $25 million
Phoenix, Arizona - $25 million
Portland, Oregon - $20 million
San Antonio, Texas - $10 million
Seattle, Washington - $20 million
Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance - $20 million
Toledo-Lucas County Port Authority, Ohio - $15 million
Wisconsin Energy Conservation Corporation - $20 million

Retrofit By the Numbers
• Residential and commercial buildings consume 40 percent of the energy and represent 40 percent of the carbon emissions in the United States. Building efficiency represents one of the easiest, most immediate and most cost effective ways to reduce carbon emissions and save money on energy bills while creating new jobs:
• Existing techniques and technologies in energy efficiency retrofitting can reduce energy use by up to 40 percent per home and lower total associated greenhouse gas emissions by up to 160 million metric tons annually.
• Residential and commercial retrofits also have the potential to cut energy bills by $40 billion annually.

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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

McCaskill aims to end secret holds on political nominees

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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Stouffer Report: Paying Teachers for Work Completed

From Congressional candidate Bill Stouffer (R):

The Missouri Legislature is facing the toughest economic situation in our state’s history. However, because of tough decisions made in the last decade, Missouri is one of only seven states in a good financial position for the future.

Addressing these challenges has required a great deal of time, patience and understanding. As I have mentioned before, your input and prayers have provided lawmakers with a firm ground to stand on during these turbulent times.

We are in the process of putting together a balanced budget for Missouri’s next fiscal year, which will start on July 1, 2010. Unlike the federal government, we are not able to spend more than the state brings in from revenues — your tax dollars.

To understand Missouri’s budget, it is important to know the biggest two expenditures: Social services and K-12 education. It is these two departments where we have to do the most work to balance our state’s budget this year. Currently, our budget is $1 billion behind where we were in revenue one year ago.

This year, the Legislature has put a priority on classroom funding for Missouri’s students, which means keeping the funding for classroom instruction through the state’s formula at the same rate as 2010.

Not decreasing funding to Missouri’s classrooms has led to cuts to state government and other types of education spending like Career Ladder, a program that reimburses teachers for extra work they do to educate children outside of the classroom.

Some legislators believed we could cut funding to Career Ladder. Fortunately, we were able to reverse that decision in the current budget that I voted for. It is only right and honest to compensate teachers for work they have completed.

In addition to Career Ladder, there has also been a lot of controversy surrounding changes in teacher retirement. Unfortunately, special interest groups have led current and retired teachers to believe their retirement would be affected by a common sense solution to reform state employee retirement by changing benefits for all new employees. The retirement legislation passed (Senate Bill 714), but as promised, it did not and will not include teachers.

This session has provided lawmakers with an opportunity to reconsider all of our state’s spending, as we are all doing in our homes, and improve state government. This is all being done without a tax increase. Times like these remind me why I became involved in state government and it remains my honor to serve you in the Missouri Senate.

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Monday, April 19, 2010

Senate candidates in 2010 races top $5.5 million in receipts for election cycle

EXCLUSIVE MPNblog.com ANALYSIS

Editor's Note: This post covers 1Q-2020 campaign finance reports for candidates that have filed with for the Aug. 2010 primary with the Missouri Secretary of State. Totals and averages are not directly comparable to our report from 4Q-2009 which relied solely on races candidates intended to run for, as reported by the Missouri Ethics Commission, and included races not up for election until 2012.

Candidates running for Missouri's 17 state senate seats this year raised a total of $5.5 million so far this election cycle, according to reports filed for the first quarter of 2010.

On average, the 41 candidates reporting fundraising, raised an average of $134,588. Republicans averaged slightly more than their Democratic counterparts, $155,795 and $11,183 per candidate, respectively.

An additional 10 candidates are filed for races, but either didn't create fundraising committees until after the close of the period or have not yet begun fundraising. This includes four Democrats, one Republican, and three third-party candidates.

Currently House Speaker Ron Richard (R) leads all state senate candidates with the most receipts for the current election cycle. Richard, who is running unopposed in either the primary or general election for District 32, reported raising $620,806 to date.

Not far behind Richard in terms of total receipts is former State Rep. Sam Page (D), running an a highly contested primary in District 24. Page reported $553,321 in receipts for the current election cycle.

Even though Republicans have raised more, Democrats reported a slightly higher average for expenditures so far this election cycle. Democrats averaged $42,894 per candidate whereas Republicans averaged about $40,734.

Those totals, however, don't include contributions to other candidates. If those numbers are factored in Republicans clearly lead again in terms of expenditures. Republicans averaged $17,920 per candidate in contributions to other political committees; Democrats averaged just $6,785.

Average contributions to other candidates were boosted for Republicans by Richard, whose campaign alone accounted for more than 60 percent of the candidate contributions from all political parties' candidates ($328,410).

Republicans also led Democrats in terms of cash-on-hand, averaging $110,989 per candidate compared to Democrats who averaged $72,801 per candidate.

Finally, in terms of debt, Republicans averaged $6,601 per candidate compared to Democrats who averaged $2,406 per candidate.

The largest amount of debt held by candidates was a tie between Jack Jackson (R) in District 26 and Bryan Pratt (R) in District 8, both with $50,000 in debt. During the previous quarter's reports, candidate John Lamping (R) had held the greatest amount of debt at $75,000, but Lamping repaid his loan in full on Feb. 22.

The full details of State Senate candidates' reported receipts, expenditures, contributions to candidates, cash-on-hand, and debt is available here. Note that all totals were reported by candidates' committees and full reports are on file with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

Related Links:
MPNblog.com 1Q-2010 Filed Senate Candidates Campaign Finance Summary

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Sunday, April 18, 2010

Herzog Corporation chips in another $150,000 for Show-Me Better Courts campaign

Just four days after contributing $100,000 to the Show-Me Better Courts campaign, the Herzog Contracting Corporation donated another $150,000 to the same political committee, according to records filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

Show-Me Better Courts is a political committee set up to support an initiative petition that would allow for direct elections of Missouri judges.

Herzog also has a history of contributions to Republican candidates.

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Saturday, April 17, 2010

Political mood not good predictor for state auditor contests

Actually, we've learned there really aren't any good predictors for the outcome of Missouri's state auditor contests.

Conventional wisdom suggests that state auditor candidates are at the mercy of higher profile elections since candidates are generally not well known, mostly since their election cycles in Missouri -- mid-terms for Congressional elections -- do not coincide with better known presidential and gubernatorial contests.

Let's consider the auditor elections over the last quarter century:

  • 2008 -- Susan Montee (D) defeats Sandra Thomas (R) by 10.6 points in an open race as Claire McCaskill wins the U.S. Senate race by a 2.3 point margin. For national contests though, the state's national mood leaned slightly Republican (R-3.6).*
  • 2002 -- Incumbent auditor Claire McCaskill (D) defeats Al Hanson (R) by 23.4 points, a 9.7 point marginal gain over her 2000 margin. Meanwhile, Jim Talent narrowly won the U.S. Senate seat by a 1.1 point margin. The national mood leaned Republican (R-5.5).
  • 1998-- Claire McCaskill (D) defeats Chuck Pierce (R) by a 3.9 point margin in an open auditor contest as Kit Bond (R) handily defeated Jay Nixon (R) in the U.S. Senate race by a 8.9 point margin. The national mood slightly favored democrats (D-1.4).
  • 1994-- Margaret Kelly (R) wins her third election as state auditor by a 19 point margin. Meanwhile, John Ashcroft (R) defeated Wheaton (D) by a 24 point margin. All that while the national mood strongly favored Democrats (D-10).
  • 1990 -- Incumbent Margeret Kelly (R) defeated Connie Hendren (D) by 12.2 points without the help of a senate contest. The mood leaned slightly Republican (R-2).
  • 1986 -- After serving two years as an appointee, Margaret Kelly (R) ran in her first election and won by a 2.4 point margin. In the U.S. Senate race Bond (R) defeated Woods (D) by a 5.3 point margin. The national mood strongly favored Republicans (R-12.4).

While we can't run a statistical analysis of this information due to the lack of a suitable dataset, this information does provide a couple of interesting insights:

  1. The winner of the auditor's race often bucks either the national mood or the mood favoring a winner in the senate contest. In the four most recent contests, the candidate bucked one of these moods.
  2. Incumbency results in gains of winning vote shares. Kelly added 4.9 points to her vote share in her second election, and another 1.7 points in the third contest in 1994. Likewise, when McCaskill ran for reelection in 2002, her vote share increased by 9.7 points (although some would argue this margin was largely due to the fact the Republican candidate was not widely appealing). Thus we can reasonably infer that incumbency plays a significant role in auditor's races.

What does this mean for state auditor candidates facing off in the 2010 general election?

Montee has an advantage with her incumbency, although it's not clear how much. In recent terms though, incumbency could add 5-10 points to her margin. If that's the case, Republicans will have to whittle away at that lead to stand a chance at taking back this office in the fall.

And with a close Senate race that currently favors Republicans, don't think that automatically means Republicans will also win the auditor's office. It doesn't. Just ask former State Auditor turned U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D) who twice won the auditor's office (1998 and 2002) when Republicans handily defeated Democrats in the Senate contests.

All that to say, the auditor's election this year could turn out to be an exciting race to watch.

* National mood is measured as the point difference between the percentage of votes won by each major political party in the preceding presidential contest (t-2) and the contest following the auditor's election (t+2).

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Friday, April 16, 2010

Cleaver: The spit is unimportant, but what it represents is dangerous

Congressman Emanuel Cleaver (D) elaborates on an incident in Washington DC in which he was spit on by protesters:

It is hard to imagine what future generations will make of the last few weeks in American history. Certainly they will evaluate the effectiveness of a health care overhaul bill now only days old. My colleagues and I have stood behind podiums to declare that it will be transformative legislation. History will judge whether we were right.

Of far greater concern is that without a change in course, my granddaughter will read in her history books that these were the days the basic fabric of our tenuous relationship with our own republic began to fray and tear.

What will she think as she reads of the ill-mannered ending to the House health care debate and its untidy aftermath? Certainly the incident that befell her grandfather should not warrant writing or recalling. But what will it say about us and our time, that on the heels of a monumental achievement so many were transfixed on the transgression of one yelling protester who unapologetically splattered my cheek with saliva?

For some, blinded by partisan fervor, nothing I can say here will thwart their own conspiracy theories of the unfortunate episode. For those looking for a play-by-play account of the day, it won’t happen. There is no benefit to me or the nation.

The incident was trivial; the anger it represents is not. These are trying and serious times and call for thoughtful and serious people of all political persuasions to build our national community rather than tearing it apart.

Some pundits and politicians suggest that a higher degree of bipartisanship is needed. While I agree that bipartisanship has its value, it is not our problem. Partisanship is a vital component of a democracy. There is a difference between healthy partisanship and disingenuous rancor. Neither party has the market on truth. Our nation and its laws are made better by active and aggressive minority opposition.

However, we in Congress have gone too far. We have abandoned any pretense of civility. Both sides are guilty. No responsible parent would instruct their child to watch Congress in action on C-SPAN to learn the American art of debate without debasement.

Some blame the 24-hour news cycle and talk radio for politics turned ugly. That’s the cheap way out. Our behavior is our choice. Accountability used to be a watchword. Now, elected officials claim righteousness while their campaigns simultaneously push smut and lies.

The President and Members of Congress are supposed to lead the band, not just blame them for the shrill sound of the music. We must become the national example of decorum.

Democratic Members of Congress must retreat from the notion that all Tea Party members are crazed hooligans. To accept and push that view is not only divisive, it is diabolical. As an African American, I have been caught in the net of the, “They all are” mentality.

Republican Members should stop accusing Democrats and the President of laying the foundation for a socialist take over. That is not true and they know it. Their constituents, however, may not.

This is not the first time in our history that our heated rhetoric has threatened to tear us apart. But, in this age of instant gratification, gain without sacrifice and perpetual victimhood, our political parities and leaders are fanning flames of frustration and turning genuine fears into bonfires. Americans should be able to disagree with one another without painting the other side as un-American.

The rage is real. I have felt it first hand. The risk to our republic is real as well. Members of Congress from both parties would be much more towering and statesmanlike if they would present more vision and fewer nightmares. We are a better, more compassionate and caring nation than our current behavior portrays. Our nation’s strength is completely dependent on our ability to conduct civil conversations about our shared future. That starts with Congress, and I will do my part.

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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Schweich fundraising in last quarter quadruples Icet, doubles Montee

He's a former ambassador who recently starred in a rock video that raised some eyebrows, but now that the fundraising reports are in for the first fundraising quarter of 2010, State Auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R) can also be called the Republican front-runner.

Schweich more than quadrupled the fundraising of his primary opponent, House Budget Chairman Allen Icet (R), over the last quarter.

In total, Schweich reported receipts of $225,401 while Icet pulled in just $50,063 during the period. Icet's campaign, which hasn't formally issued a statement on the fundraising yet, will likely indicate that since Icet has been involved in finalizing the state's FY 2011 budget in the General Assembly, he did not have time to fundraise over the last quarter. Even with that reasoning though, Schweich's performance is impressive. Especially considering incumbent State Auditor Susan Montee (D) received only $104,438 in contributions during the period.

For the election cycle so far, Schweich has another advantage relative to Icet -- he's burning through his cash at a much slower rate. Schweich's burn rate for cash is just 20 percent while Icet's is 65 percent.

Just like in the last quarter of 2009, even though Schweich outraised both Icet and Montee during the period, it is Montee that still maintains a slight edge in total receipts for the entire election cycle due to a $515,000 personal loan to her campaign.

Although even with that loan, Montee actually has less cash-on-hand than Schweich who has roughly twice the amount currently held individually by both Montee and Icet.

Schweich (R) Fundraising Report
During the period  Schweich reported $225,401 in receipts, none of which came from political committees. In fact, so far this entire election cycle, the only contribution Schweich accepted from a political committee in the last two quarters was a $100,000 donation from Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R).

"After developing a strong grassroots network, building a top flight campaign and earning the trust of small, medium and large donors, I believe I have proven I am the candidate who can win in November,” Schweich said in a press release Thursday night. “A lot is at stake for the taxpayer. This race is not about partisanship, it is about protecting Missourians' hard earned tax dollars. More than ever we need a strong, independent watchdog for the taxpayers of our state.”

Of the contributions itemized in Schweich's 1Q-2010 finance report, $185,501 came from donors in Missouri (83%) and $36,800 (17%) came from outside the state. The strongest region for Schweich inside Missouri was St. Louis, which accounted for the majority (87%) of his in-state contributions. Of the 78 line items reported in Missouri, 65 were in St. Louis. Among the more notable contributors during the period was Peter Herschend, owner of Silver Dollar City, who chipped in $10,250.

The only regions of the state Schweich reported no contributions from were the Northeast and Northwest. Schweich also lacked fundraising support from these two regions in 4Q-2009.

In terms of expenditures, Schweich spent just under $5,000 for the Republican Lincoln Days festivities. Other major expenses included  $14,000 in consulting fees to Laurus, Inc., $17,000 for staffers Paul Mouton and Tyler Holman, and Matt Beckman, and $6,170 for media and printing.

Icet (R) Fundraising Report
Icet reported raising $50,063 during the quarter. Nearly 20 percent of that amount ($9,450) came from political committees. The political contributions included two health care PACs -- Long Term Car Leadership PAC and Missouri Pharmacy PAC, as well as contributions from committees belonging to Reps. Stan Cox (R), Walt Bivins (R), and Robert Mayer (R).

Of the remaining itemized contributions from individuals and businesses, 97 percent ($39,388) came from donors inside Missouri and just $1,200 came from outside the state.

Regionally, Icet received non-political committee contributions from every part of the state. The largest concentrations was in St. Louis, but the contributions were disbursed fairly evenly in most regions. This was progress from the previous quarter when Icet's fundraising was almost exclusively from the St. Louis region.

Icet's expenditures during the period of $58,043 actually exceeded receipts. Major expenses included $9,000 in consulting fees to Keith Kirk, $12,742 to Iowa-based Victory Enterprises for grassroots campaign activities, $12,965 for fundraising expenses, and $4,560 for staffer Ross Branson.

Montee (D) Fundraising Report
Montee raised $104,438 during the most recent quarter, twice as much as Icet but  slightly more than Icet but less than half of what Schweich raised. The distribution across contribution sources is largely unchanged from the previous quarter. Montee received 17 political committee contributions that account for 14 percent ($14,591) of her total during the period. Political committees contributing include the Missouri National Education Association, IUPAT, and a number of other labor unions.

Montee also received 380 itemized contributions from individuals and businesses, the majority of which came from inside Missouri. Just 5 percent of Montee's total receipts ($5,225) came from outside the state.

Although Montee didn't provide zip codes in the report (which is how out geocoding algorithm functions) we manually assessed each contribution to determine it's region. While in teh last quarter of 2009, 55 percent of Montee's in-state total came from St. Louis, this quarter her total was just 38 percent from St. Louis. Kansas City was also a major source of funds ($23,400) this quarter. Montee was one of the two major candidates who received contributions from all seven Missouri regions.

Montee's major expenses during the period include $12,500 for fundraising support,  $2,973 in payroll taxes, $15,098 in payroll for staffers Jared Madison and Sean Spence, and $606 in ActBlue processing fees.

Akram (D) Fundraising Report 
Montee's primary opponent Abdul Akram (D), of Kansas City, did not report any receipts or expenditures during the first quarter of 2010.

Related Links:
Schweich Campaign Finance Reports
Icet Campaign Finance Reports
Smith Campaign Finance Reports
Montee Campaign Finance Reports

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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Billy Long announces $89k raised in 1Q-2010 for Congressional campaign

On a new website created to follow the 7th Congressional District contest this year, candidate Billy Long (R) announced his campaign raised $88,906 during the first fundraising quarter of 2010. Long says at the end of the fundraising period, his campaign had $506,851 cash-on-hand.

Long is one of the nine Republican candidate in Missouri's 7th Congressional District, hoping to replace long-time Congressman Roy Blunt (R) who is currently running for Missouri's open U.S. Senate seat in 2010.

The other Republican candidates include Gary Nodler, Jeff Wisdom, Bob Schanz, Mike Moon, Darrell Moore, Jack Goodman, Michael Wardell, and Steve Hunter.

Whoever wins the nomination for this district will face opposition from one of two filed Democrats -- Tim Davis and Scott Eckersley. However, the district leans strongly Republican. MPNblog.com's Missouri Voting Index (MVI) identifies the 10 county region that makes up the 7th Congressional District as R+14 in 2008. That was only a slight improvement from 2004 when the MVI was R+16.

Libertarian Kevin Craig also filed for the contest.

Related Links:
Secretary of State 2010 Candidate Listing: US House District 7

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Scwheich launches new 'outsider' radio spot

State Auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R) launched a 60 second radio spot today touting his background in rooting out waste in government spending.

Here's the audio via YouTube, followed by a transcript:



If there's waste fraud and abuse, fiscal hawk Tom Schweich has a record of finding it and stopping it.

For decades he oversaw internal investigations and audits of some of Missouri's largest companies.

As a U.S. Ambassador, Tom Schweich was charged with eradicating the Taliban's drug trade. As a law enforcement official, Tom fought corruption in dozens of countries around the world.

Working with conservative leader Ambassador John Bolton, Tom helped expose corruption at the United Nations.

Tom Schweich is a staunch believer in the second amendment, and is one hundred percent pro-life.

Now, Tom Schweich wants to bring his unparalleled investigative, law enforcement and audit experience to the Missouri state auditor's office.

We need an experienced, fiercely independent, outsider in Jefferson City. A true watchdog for us -- we need Tom Schweich.

Paid for by Tom Schweich for Auditor.

And for the record, YouTube's new transcribe feature apparently doesn't understand "Missouri's" and interprets that term as "miseries".

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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Missouri unemployment ticks up to 9.5 percent

Even without reading the press release, we knew it wasn't going to be good news. That's because Gov. Jay Nixon's Dept. of Economic Development (DED) released the press release on a Sunday.

That report showed that even though Missouri businesses added 7,200 jobs in Mar. 2010, the state's unemployment rate increased by one-tenth of one percentage point. The state's unemployment rate now sits at 9.5 percent, just two-tenths of a point below the national average.

When national unemployment peaked in Oct. 2009, the differential between the national rate and Missouri's was nearly a full point. With that difference gradually getting smaller, the notion that Missouri is faring better than the rest of the country is quickly fading. In fact, it seems that in terms of unemployment Missouri is among the worst states in the region.

In Mar. 2010, the job gains provide at least a bit of good news and may in fact be what is driving the unemployment rate higher. That is, as Missourians perceive the job markets being stronger they are more likely to re-enter their job searches which means they are again counted in this statistic.

New jobs in Mar. were mostly in the construction (+4,100) and hospitality (+3,000) sectors. DED also reported that federal employment contributed to the gains with addition of 1,900 Census workers and tax processors for the IRS.

Related Links:
DED Mar. 2010 Jobs Report

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Monday, April 12, 2010

Herzog dumps $100,000 into coffers of ShowMe Better Courts campaign

The Herzog Contracting Corporation donated $100,000 to the Show-Me Better Courts campaign, according to a report filed today with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

Ethics Commission records show a history of contributions from the company to Republicans such as Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and former gubernatorial candidate Sarah Steelman. The Show-Me Better Courts campaign seems to be the first foray into petition initiatives for Herzog.

Show-Me Better Courts campaign is supporting an initiative petition to require direct elections for Missouri judges.

State records for Herzog show the St. Joseph-based company's primary agent is Jeff Davison, who is also listed as the primary agent for seven other companies.

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Exclusive: What factors impact 2010 primary filings in the Missouri House? -- Part 2 of 2

EXCLUSIVE MPNblog.com ANALYSIS

Last week I wrote that the Associated Press penned a strikingly incomplete portrayal of candidate filings and what they meant for Missouri's 2010 general elections. My last analysis dissected candidate filings in the Missouri house from 2008 by constructing a descriptive regression model to account for the major factors in determining whether democrats or republicans would have a primary in a given district.

First, my apologies for the delay in making part 2 of this series available. This is an analysis that requires bridging several datasets, so even though the models employed are relatively simple, the datasets are still quite complex.

Now, on to the 2010 data.

For the 2010 elections there are a total of 384 House candidate from the two major political parties. Of the 163 House Districts, 73 will have a primary among either Republicans or Democrats, while just 8 will have both Democratic and Republican primaries. Incidentally, the 8 districts with primaries in both parties do not have incumbents running.

For 2010, 79 Democrats will head into primaries in 27 House districts. That's actually one candidate more than involved in Democratic primaries in 2008 (a Democratic-favored year). Republicans, on the other hand, will have primaries in 53 districts involving 130 candidates. Compare that to 2008 when Republicans had just 18 House primaries involving 41 candidates.

In 2010, 12 Republican incumbents will face primaries while just 7 Democratic incumbents will face primaries.

The next question, though, is how many of those races involving Republican or Democratic primaries actually involve competition between the parties.

In 2010, 33 of the 53 Republican races have Democratic competition whereas 18 of the 28 Democratic races will have Republican competition in the general election.

As I indicated in the post last week, all these figures are interesting, but we really need models to explain how the complex data interacts between races and across parties.

2010 Primary Descriptive Models
For the sake of comparison, I've kept the models identical to those employed to describe the 2008 primaries. Here's a brief recap of the main variables:

* Is there an incumbent in the 2010 race? While term limits have an impact, there are also more than 10 sitting representatives that for one reason or another chose not to seek re-election this year, even though they are eligible.

* Is there opposition from the other party? If Republicans are involved in a primary, it may be because no serious Democratic challenger exists. Alternately, parties may try to minimize primary contests when they face opposition from the other party. Thus, controlling for whether the race was contested could be an important descriptive variable for whether a primary occurred or not.

* Does the party with a primary control the seat for the preceding two year period? That is, if Democrats are holding a primary, did they also control the seat from 2008 to present? This variable incorporates a sense of party entrenchment for a seat such that if a party currently holds a seat, they will fight harder to keep it than to win a potential open or toss up seat.

* What was the margin between the Democratic and Republican candidates in the last election? This variable measures the raw percentage difference between the candidate with the maximum votes from a major party and the candidate with the minimum. This information provides some context about the degree to which certain districts may clearly favor one party over the other such that it may be more likely no candidate from the opposing party would run, let alone engage in a primary contest. There's some introduced error in using this measure since uncontested races show up as 100% margins, which may indicate greater support than practical in the district.

* Finally, I incorporate a dummy variable to capture which districts were won in 2008 by significant margins, or those greater than five percentage points. This cutoff could be set at many levels, but I found a five point margin to generally be sufficient to distinguish districts that had either certain characteristics or candidates that resulted in fairly wide margins. Note that districts with these five point margins were not that likely to shift dramatically based on national electoral outcomes.

As I indicated last week, these models have only limited explanatory ability and with more time and data we could employ some pretty extensive and informative data mining with this particular dataset. In the absence of more complete information, this approach is both reasonable and useful in explaining at a basic level what is going on with Missouri's House primary filings.

2010 Primary Descriptive Models -- Results
The model results are substantially similar to those observed in 2008.

For Democrats the most significant factor in determining whether a primary would occur was whether Democrats won the seat in the last election cycle (p<.001). Second, incumbency was likely to reduce the likelihood of a primary (p<.001). For Democrats, there's also some evidence that the 2008 margin and whether that margin was greater than 5 percent were important, but with different effects. When margins were greater, the likelihood of a primary was decreased (p<.15). But if the margin was greater than 5 percent in the last election, the likelihood of a primary contest among Democrats increased (p<.15). For Republicans the results were substantially similar except greater significance was placed on incumbents in deterring primaries (p<.001), whereas Republican control was less likely to result in a primary than in the Democratic model, but still had a statistically significant impact (p<.001). As with the 2008 model for Republicans, margins do not seem to play an important role in determining whether a primary will result.

Conclusions from this exercise

Overall for both 2008 and 2010 we can infer that incumbency -- not necessarily term limits though -- drives down the likelihood of a party primary whereas previous control by one of the respective political parties is likely to increase the likelihood of a primary contest. Both factors are statistically significant across models for both parties and in both years. The unanswered question is how does this compare to the last mid-term cycle -- 2006, or better yet, the last time the mood expectations leaned in favor of Republicans -- 1994. Unfortunately, I'm not going to try to answer those questions here.

It's also important to note that the likelihood estimates we can derive from these models are not substantially different. That is, there is not a major difference in projected likelihood of a Democratic primary based on incumbency or party control between the 2008 and 2010 models. What that indicates is that while the raw number of candidates may have shifted, when we control for other variables the overall mood of the country does not likely play a role as major as incumbency and party control.

So what does all this mean for 2010? Democracy is healthy in Missouri. Democrats will still face off against Republicans in 93 House districts this Fall.

The total number of candidates is up (+60). The total number of primaries in districts that will face competition between parties is up (+21). Even the total number of primaries in uncontested districts is up (+2).

But keep in mind the total number of uncontested districts is an important factor in determining the impact for the general election, and can often be more telling than the primary candidate counts. In 2008, there were 77 uncontested seats. Democrats held 50 of them and Republicans held 27. The reason for this phenomenon was likely just that it was a good year to recruit Democrats, perhaps even if their actual probability of defeating the opposing party was not substantially higher. In contrast, for 2010 the story is inverted such that there are still about the same number of uncontested seats -- 70. But Democrats will get only 28 of those with the rest (42) headed to Republican control.

Also bear in mind that primaries don't necessarily bode well for the parties engaged in them. Sure in some districts the primaries occur and won't likely impact the incumbent party, but often primaries can be more bitter and divisive than the general election contest between Democrats and Republicans. When this occurs, the party engaged in the primary can be in a precarious position for the general election.

And it's that precarious position that Republicans are hoping to avoid. Because if that happens, and they avoid knock down drag out primaries, the shear numbers are in their favor for a strong performance this November.

Finally, for the benefit of all those speculating out there on what's happening with primary competition this year versus 2008, here's a brief series of summary tables:

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Saturday, April 10, 2010

Business conditions in Missouri continue to improve, for 9th straight month

Business conditions are steadily improving in Missouri, according to new data released this month from Creighton University. That finding is from a survey of supply managers across the state in March that indicated expectations for economic growth in the next six months are now substantially improved from just one year ago.

Overall business conditions expanded above growth neutral in June 2009 and have hovered only slightly above that position since. But the March 2010 data shows a significant improvement in the data series, indicating the best conditions since July 2007.

While producer confidence remains shaky, with recent monthly oscillations more than 20 points, confidence in March remained strikingly positive.

Compared to the rest of the region, Missouri's anticipated overall growth is slightly below average while confidence fell below the region-wide average in March after picking up momentum in February.

“I expect job gains [in Missouri] for the first and second quarters of 2010," said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss. "However, the increases will be modest with unemployment rates remaining above 8.5 percent for the rest of 2010 as discouraged workers re-enter the work force."

Goss also noted that the gap between Missouri's index and the national average has increased in recent months, but at least for the last two that gap has been almost completely closed. In coming months, Goss expects that gap to stabilize even more.

The Creighton Business Conditions Index is compiled by surveying supply managers in the state, using the same methods as the National Association of Purchasing Management's monthly survey.


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Thursday, April 8, 2010

Blunt over Carnahan, Nixon approval strong according to new Rasmussen poll

A new poll released by Rasmussen this week shows Gov. Jay Nixon's approval rating at 59 percent, somewhat surprising given the tumultuous budget situation currently facing the state.

The same poll shows Congressman Roy Blunt (R) continues to lead Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) in a likely match-up for Missouri's open Senate seat this Nov.

Rasmussen reported Blunt up by 6 points, but still within the statistical margin of error. According to the poll, Blunt has the backing of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to Carnahan's 42 percent.

While the margin was unchanged from Rasmussen's Mar. poll, the number of unsure voters declined, as did those reporting they would vote for another candidate.

In what may be a sliver of good news for Carnahan's team though, the favorables are virtually identical for the two candidates with 47 percent reporting a favorable view of Carnahan and 49 percent for Blunt.

"This is the fourth Rasmussen poll in a row showing Roy Blunt leading outside the margin of error," Blunt's campaign said in an email today. Technically, however, Blunt's team is inaccurate because the margin of error really means that Blunt's support could be as low as 43.5 percent and Carnahan's as high as 46.5, not to mention Rasmussen's house effect, which tends to favor Republican candidates.

The phone survey of 500 likely Missouri voters has a margin of error of 4.5 percent and a confidence interval of 95 percent.

Related Links:
Rasmussen Toplines: Missouri

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Stouffer Report: Pray for Missouri

From State Sen. Bill Stouffer (R):

More and more each day, folks are getting involved in government and we are starting to see the results of this at the Missouri Capitol.

Hundreds of folks came to Jefferson City at the end of March to ask everyone to pray for our state, our leaders and our budget. People like you and me stood outside legislators’ doors and prayed for them. We have tough decisions ahead of us and consulting our Creator is the perfect place to start.

Missouri’s budget is in a tight spot. When there was a panic over budget shortfalls nearly 10 years ago, we were about $250 million short. Now, the figure is closer to $1 billion, and growing. The folks in the Missouri House cut as much as they could from the governor’s proposed $23 billion budget for fiscal year 2011. Now, it is in the hands of the Missouri Senate.

The Missouri Family Network sponsored the effort to get folks to pray for lawmakers. They have been around for 26 years and have never put together such an enormous event at the state Capitol. They realize, just like the rest of us, government can only go so long before it has to re-examine how it spends taxpayer dollars. Leaders from every denomination came together to quietly rally lawmakers in our offices to drive home the importance of passing a balanced budget which will continue to provide only the necessary services for our state and its citizens.

The timing of the 40 days of fasting and the day the General Assembly has to have the budget finished coincides with the National Day of Prayer. As I said earlier, the budget has to be finished and on the governor’s desk by 6 p.m. on Friday, May 7. The National Day of Prayer falls one day before this deadline. The theme for this year’s National Day of Prayer follows suit with not only the challenges we are seeing in Missouri, but all throughout the country.

The Missouri Family Network is asking folks to be creative with getting friends and neighbors together. Churches throughout rural Missouri are hearing about the efforts and are ready to accommodate everybody who wants to take part or pray for their leaders. This comes at a time when we hear so many news stories about church membership declining and fewer people believing in God. However, this is far from the case, especially in rural Missouri, where folks’ deep-rooted beliefs go hand-in-hand with their day-to-day values.

I was able to take the time to pray with citizens who stopped by my office this week during session. They believe strongly in the power of prayer, and so do I. As I have said before, we have a tremendous opportunity in Missouri to make government work better and spend less money. Getting to this stage will take some time and will not be easy. With your help and with all the prayers that are being offered, I have no doubt we will make it through this challenge and leave a better future for the next generation of Missourians.

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Skelton Weekly Column: College Bound Students Should Consider U.S. Service Academies

From Congressman Ike Skelton (D):

As Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, I have worked hard to ensure that American military personnel are the best educated in the world. I continue to believe that our military’s strength comes from the ingenuity and dedication of the men and women in uniform as well as their superb training.

High school students planning to attend college have a broad range of options today. As a graduate of Wentworth Military Academy Junior College and of the University of Missouri, I can attest to the outstanding schools that Missouri has to offer. But as students consider their higher education options, I would like to encourage them to take a look at the opportunities available at the U.S. Service Academies B the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, the Naval Academy, the Air Force Academy, or the Merchant Marine Academy.

Each of these institutions offers something unique: a first class education and, upon graduation, a commission into the most powerful military in the world. Today’s students are tomorrow’s military leaders, and, whether planning to make military service a career or not, these academies impart the knowledge and life skills needed to succeed both in the military and civilian worlds.

Young people in Missouri=s Fourth Congressional District interested in attending a U.S. Service Academy should contact me. In order to apply, a student must first be nominated by his or her member of Congress, and my office is now accepting applications from students interested in entering an academy in June 2011.

Basic application requirements are as follows: the applicant must be a U.S. citizen, a legal resident of the Fourth Congressional District, between the ages of 17 and 23, and unmarried without legal obligation for support of children or dependents.

Each nominee is examined through a “whole person” evaluation format dependent on seven specific criteria: depth of character, scholarship, leadership, aptitude, physical and medical fitness, personal goals, and motivation. All of these qualities are required to meet the challenges encountered at the academies and as professional officers in the United States Armed Forces.

Those wanting to apply for a nomination to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, the Naval Academy, the Air Force Academy, or the Merchant Marine Academy should write to my Blue Springs office at the following address: Congressman Ike Skelton, 514-B NW 7 Highway, Blue Springs, Missouri 64014. If you would like to call my office regarding the application process, please ask for Kyle Wilkens of my staff at (816) 228-4242. More information on U.S. service academies is also available through links on my web site at http://house.gov/skelton/academy.shtml.

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Joe the (former) Plumber to stump for Allen Icet's auditor campaign

Sure Auditor candidate Tom Schweich (R) has a list of prominent Republicans backing his candidacy, but his opponent, House Budget Chairman Allen Icet (R), is the only one that can boast the backing of Joe Wurzelbacher (I).

Wurzelbacher is better known across the country as Joe the Plumber, a nickname picked up during the 2008 presidential campaign when he questioned President Barack Obama's (D) tax policy on the campaign trail in Ohio. The campaign of Obama's opponent John McCain (R) would later pick up the title to describe the entire American middle class.

“The Auditor’s office is the last line of defense when it comes to the fight against government waste and fraud, and it takes someone with experience handling a budget like Allen to watch out for the taxpayers,” Wurzelbacher said in a press release issued by Icet's campaign. “And no matter what office it is, I’m sure the people of Missouri want their watchdog to be principled, and to share the same values they do. That is why Allen Icet is the man for the job and why I’m proud to support him in his campaign.”

Since the 2008 campaign thrust Wurzelbacher into the national spotlight, he has since quit his job as a plumber and told Time magazine in 2008 that he was also quitting the Republican Party.

Wurzelbacher will speak in support of Icet at a Ballwin event scheduled for May 22. Incidentally, tickets for the event are slated to cost $21, just above Missouri's mean hourly wage rate of $18.55, but just below the average hourly wage for plumbers -- $23.65.

Related Links:
Icet Campaign Website: Joe the Plumber

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Sinquefield contributions top $2.3 million for current election cycle

Since the last time we reported on Rex Sinquefield's contributions to Missouri political campaigns this election cycle, his total has topped $2.3 million.

Sinquefield, founder of the Show Me Institute think tank, donated more than $1,765,000 this year alone in contributions greater than $5,000. Most of those funds -- $1.75 million -- went to Let Voters Decide, a committee formed to support ballot initiatives seeking to amend earning taxes across the state.

Here are the latest totals in addition to those reported as of Feb. 1 here:, which do not include any contributions under $5,000 that may have gone to candidates during the first fundraising quarter of 2010:

MECID  COMMITTEE NAME  DATE  AMOUNT
C101013 LET VOTERS DECIDE 2/15/2010 $500,000
C101013 LET VOTERS DECIDE 4/1/2010 $750,000


2010 TOTAL  $1,765,003



ELECTION CYCLE TO DATE
(as of Apr. 1, 2010) 
$2,307,016

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Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Ethics Commission launches official Twitter feed

The Missouri Ethics Commission has set up a feed Wednesday to share information via Twitter. And why not, everyone else is doing it these days?

So far MoEthics has posted just three notes with links to documents on their website, and has just 8 followers (including MPN).

We can reasonably infer the Commission will use the feed only to provide notices for releases of meeting minutes and opinions, and major filing deadlines.

Related Links:
MoEthics Twitter Feed
MEC Apr. 2010 Newsletter

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Graves Update: Build an Actual Fence

From Congressman Sam Graves (R):

The old adage of putting the ‘cart before the horse’ seems pretty relevant to the on-going debate about immigration reform in Congress. No plan for immigration reform will work until we control the border. The fact is though; we don’t control our own borders.

Just this past week, the Department of Homeland Security announced that they would cut funding for a project along the southern border called the virtual fence. After spending over a billion dollars in taxpayer money, federal bureaucrats finally came to the conclusion that a virtual fence simply doesn’t work.

I have long advocated that the best solution along our porous southern border is an actual fence. I voted for 700 miles of fence along the border and in 2007, I introduced legislation that called for a real fence across the entire border. Only a fraction of that fence has been completed.

Controlling our border is not only a matter of fairness; it is also a matter of national security. We can never be truly safe until we control who comes into this country.

A fence is not the only answer to our immigration problem. But having the ability to enforce our laws is a good place to start. While our country is great because of immigration, it must be legal immigration.

We need to regain control of our borders and enforce the laws on the books. Until we control our own border, any other plan is simply putting the cart before the horse.

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Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Schweich Rock: Gimme back my freedom

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Skelton Weekly Column: Misguided Animal Rights Bills Could Hurt Missouri Farmers

From Congressman Ike Skelton (D):

Having lived my whole life in rural Missouri, I learned at a very early age the importance of agriculture to our state. Farmers throughout Missouri personify many of the Midwestern values we hold most dear – hard work, dedication to family and community, faith, and patriotism.

Farmers and agriculture-related businesses throughout Missouri also contribute greatly to the state’s economic well-being. A 2009 report by the Missouri General Assembly highlights that agriculture adds over $12.4 billion annually to the Show-Me State economy and employs more than 245,000 people in our state.

Because Missouri benefits greatly from agriculture, it is important that Congress not consider misguided animal agriculture legislation that is pending in the House of Representatives. Two bills – one to ban antibiotic use in farm animals and one to extend radical animal welfare privileges to farm animals – are particularly troubling to me. These measures pose serious risks to America’s animal agriculture industry and to Missouri’s agriculturally driven economy and should not be considered in Congress.

The animal antibiotics bill, H.R. 1549, would amend federal law to restrict the use of FDA approved antibiotics in farm animals. This bill would tie the hands of farmers and veterinarians by limiting their ability to make the best possible decisions on the health and welfare of farm animals. It would also increase farm operating expenses and reduce livestock herds in the United States, as similar laws in foreign countries have done. Experts have said that there is little scientific evidence to reinforce this drastic change in U.S. animal health policy and any attempt to push a bill like this during such a tough economy would be particularly misguided.

The other measure, H.R. 4733, is modeled after California’s radical animal welfare law that deemed special privileges to certain caged farm animals. H.R. 4733 would require American farmers who supply food to the federal government to provide certain pinned farm animals with “enough room to turn around and stretch their limbs.” This legislation is ridiculous. It would be impossible to implement and costly to producers.

Those of us from rural America – and particularly our farmers – understand that animal health and welfare is a top priority. After all, a farmer’s livelihood depends upon raising strong, healthy livestock to sell on the market. But, the approach to animal agriculture recommended by these two bills is not the right way forward. That is why it will be important for those of us from rural America to stand united against these legislative proposals. I will work with my colleagues in the House, both Republican and Democratic, to ensure they are not considered during the 111th Congress.

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Exclusive: AP analysis of candidate totals by party significantly flawed -- Part 1 of 2

EXCLUSIVE MPNblog.com ANALYSIS

Actually, significantly flawed would be a generous description of the Associated Press's latest analysis of candidate filings by political party. In a story that has been picked up by various newspapers and radio stations across the state, the AP asserts that the greater number of Republican candidates that have filed for races in 2010 may signify either a term-limit effect or a "general frustration with the path of government." Actually, both hypotheses are flawed, as is the Republican leadership's assertion that the increased number of filings is a backlash against Democrats stemming from the last election.

Rather than simply comparing the total number of filings as the AP did, the following analysis dives into the data to reveal some fairly interesting relationships. For simplicity, we'll focus on data from the Missouri House of Representatives since it offers a sizable dataset to examine without introducing various confounding factors to our models inherent to specific types of races, not to mention it accounts for a fairly large chunk of the overall candidate filings.

2008 Primary Descriptive Models
First, lets go back in time. Using data from the Secretary of State's election archives we know that in 2008, 324 Democratic and Republican candidates filed to run in the Aug. primary election.

In 2008, 78 Democrats in 34 races found themselves involved in primaries as did 55 Republicans in 24 races. For Democrats, only 12 of the primaries involving some 28 total candidates were actually in races where at least one Republican also filed. We call these contested races. In contrast, 41 Republican candidates faced of in 18 primaries for contested races.

In total, including races with no primaries, 180 Democrats filed in 2008 and 144 Republicans filed for state House races.

This data shows that in 2008, which was widely considered a Democratic year, more Democratic candidates filed overall and in primary contests. The filings also resulted in more total primaries than Republicans (10 more). However, Republicans faced primaries in a larger number of contested races (6 more than Democrats).

So what does this tell us? Nothing. That's right, this information doesn't actually tell us a darn thing because there are lots of factors underlying the statistics above. A simple presentation of counts for data such as this, while interesting, lacks context about incumbencies or perceived probability of winning.

To incorporate these factors we constructed two descriptive models, one for democratic primary contests and a second for republican primary contests. The dependent variable, or what we're measuring, is simply whether or not there was a primary contest in 2008. We then incorporate five independent variables to help explain whether or not a primary contest occurred:

  • First, was there an incumbent in the 2008 race? Obviously term limits have a major effect on whether a primary could occur, since incumbent parties are likely to discourage primaries that challenge an incumbent candidate for reasons that may include wasting resources prior to the general election or even that primary battles can leave candidates bruised for general election contests. There is, of course, also the mere fact that incumbents have name recognition that can be crucial for these lower profile races where candidates infrequently run television commercials.
  • Second, was there opposition from the other party? If Republicans are involved in a primary, it may be because no serious Democratic challenger exists. Alternately, parties may try to minimize primary contests when they face opposition from the other party. Thus, controlling for whether the race was contested could be an important descriptive variable for whether a primary occurred or not.
  • Third, did the party with a primary control the seat for the preceding two year period? That is, if Democrats are holding a primary, did they also control the seat from 2006 to 2008? This variable incorporates a sense of party entrenchment for a seat such that if a party currently holds a seat, they will fight harder to keep it than to win a potential open or toss up seat.
  • Fourth, what was the margin in the last election? This variable measures the raw percentage difference between the candidate with the maximum votes from a major party and the candidate with the minimum. This information provides some context about the degree to which certain districts may clearly favor one party over the other such that it may be more likely no candidate from the opposing party would run, let alone engage in a primary contest.
  • Finally, we incorporate a dummy variable to capture which districts were won in 2006 by margins greater than five percentage points. We could establish this cutoff at many levels, but we found a five point margin to generally be sufficient to distinguish districts that had either certain characteristics or candidates that resulted in fairly wide margins. Note that districts with these five point margins were not that likely to shift dramatically based on national electoral outcomes.
We acknowledge these models have only limited explanatory power and will caveat them by saying that if we had more time, data, and funding to support an extensive and perhaps exhaustive data mining effort we could pinpoint the factors most crucial to determining whether a party will have a primary in a given contest. In the absence of those ideal circumstances though, we think the model results we will present shortly provide a fairly straightforward and unbiased reflection of what happened in 2008.

2008 Primary Descriptive Models -- Results
For Democrats in 2008, it turns out, our model is pretty good. The specification accounts for more than 40 percent of the variance in House districts with primaries and reveals four statistically significant variables. The most significant of those factors was whether an incumbent was running (p<.001). In races with incumbents Democrats were about 50 percent less likely to have a primary.

The second most significant factor was whether Democrats controlled the seat in the previous election cycle (p<.001). Unlike with incumbency, previous control actually increases the likelihood of a primary.  Also significant in the model were the cutoff for margin of victory (p<.01) and the margin itself (p<.15).

For Republicans, the model accounts for far less of the variance but the two statistically significant variables are consistent with those of greatest significance in the Democratic model. In the Republican model the significant factors included incumbency (p<.01) and whether Republicans controlled the seat in the previous election (p<.01). For both the interpretation is the same as with Democrats. That is, incumbency tends to decrease the likelihood of a primary whereas previous control increases the likelihood.

Conclusions to Draw from 2008 Models
Here's what we can reasonably infer from our 2008 models: incumbency is important. The AP article led readers to believe open seats are due mainly to term limits. In reality there are a number of reasons legislators choose to not seek re-election. Take, for example, State Rep. Roman LeBlanc (D) who's relationship with a teenager ultimately led to his decision not to seek re-election and former State Rep. Steve Brown (D) who left the House after being sentenced on a felony. Some state lawmakers, like former State Rep. Dennis Wood (R), vacate their seats early for other opportunities and political appointments.

As for the general frustration with government assertion from the AP, we'll get more into this in Part 2. But, at least for now rest assured that the polling data hasn't actually changed much at all since 2008. According to Gallup, in Aug. 2008, 17 percent of Americans said they were satisfied and 80 percent unsatisfied with the way things were going in the U.S. Today, however, that estimate is statistically identical, with 19 percent saying their satisfied and 79 percent unsatisfied in early Mar. 2010.

If overall frustration was having an impact on candidate filings we would expect it to drive overall candidate filing rates up for both parties since the dissatisfaction rates have changed very little between 2008 and today. Unfortunately, we realize our point here doesn't cleanly fit into the mainstream media's narrative.

In other words, the AP was not exactly on the money for either of their primary assertions about candidate filing in Missouri -- it's not term limits that impact filings the most and there's little evidence that dissatisfaction drives candidate filings.

To be continued...

Tomorrow we'll reveal our 2010 model to come full circle on the AP analysis and discuss what the results really mean for this year.

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Monday, April 5, 2010

Ariz. Republicans enact independent campaign expenditure disclosure law

Politicians in Arizona are getting serious about campaign finance disclosures. On Apr. 1, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) signed legislation requiring labor unions an corporations report campaign expenditures.

The legislation is in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling earlier this year in Citizens United v. FEC, where the court ruled that spending in electoral contests for corporations and labor unions could not be limited.

That same decision, by the way, is overwhelmingly opposed across the country. A recent poll found that more than two-thirds of Americans opposed the Supreme Court's ruling.

The Arizona legislation is supposed to address the unlimited spending by forcing organizations to register with that state's Secretary of State and report on statewide races where expenditures exceed $5,000 and on legislative races where expenditures exceed $2,500.

The measure, sponsored by Republicans, unanimously passed the Arizona House (55-0) and Senate (30-0) in Mar. 2010.

As legislators in Missouri consider various amendments to the state's campaign finance laws, no legislator -- Democrat or Republican -- has yet officially proposed to improve disclosure requirements as a result of the Supreme Court ruling.

Related Links:
AZ HB 2788 [2010] -- campaign finance and independent expenditure law

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Sunday, April 4, 2010

Dan Quayle urges tea party activitists to stay off ballots in Nov.

Former Republican Vice President Dan Quayle has a prominently featured op-ed in The Washington Post today calling for tea party activists to stay off the ballot this Nov.

Quayle writes that tea party candidates would likely only succeed in skimming votes from Republican Candidates, much as Ross Perot did in his now infamous run in the 1990s.

Here's a snipit from Quayle's op-ed:

Many remember the Reform Party of the 1990s, which formed around the candidacy of Ross Perot. I sure do, because it eliminated any chance that President George H.W. Bush and I would prevail over Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992. What started as a grass-roots phenomenon ended with 19 percent support at the ballot box -- and a majority of those voters would probably have gone Republican in a two-party race. Speaking on behalf of the Bush-Quayle campaign, to this day we firmly believe that Perot cost the Republican Party the White House. The 1992 election was the best showing for the movement Perot started, and whatever national influence it retained kept working to the benefit of Democrats.

According to recent polling, a similar scenario could unfold this year: Voters would slightly favor a Republican over a Democrat in a two-person congressional race in November, but the presence of a tea party candidate would split the vote on the right and hand victory to the Democratic candidate.

If real influence is the goal of the tea party movement, there's a much better example for its mostly Republican-leaning members to bear in mind, this year and beyond. In the late 1970s, the tax revolt movement that began in California quickly gained a national following and could easily have become a third party for the 1980 elections. But instead of fielding its own candidates, the movement exerted enormous influence on races across the country. In the end, rather than drawing votes away from the winning coalition, it helped elect Ronald Reagan and a Congress that promptly brought down federal tax rates for all Americans.

Quayle will be answering questions on the opinion piece Monday, Apr. 5th at 12:00 p.m. (information here). For the full op-ed, head to The Washington Post here.

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Friday, April 2, 2010

Missouri foreclosure activity down 4 percent from last year

Foreclosure activity in Missouri fell four percent in Feb. 2010 relative to one year earlier.

New data released this week from RealtyTrac Inc. says Missouri's total foreclosures in Feb. were 3,014, or one in every 884 homes. The national average over the same period was one foreclosure for every 418 homes.

“Missouri reported a slight increase in foreclosure filings in February, though activity remained below the level reported for this time last year,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While unemployment within the state remains high at 9.4 percent, it has consistently fallen below the national level month-after-month for the past year and is holding relatively steady.”

Missouri's foreclosure rate is the 20th lowest in the country among states.

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Thursday, April 1, 2010

Do Missouri's red counties lag in Census participation? Maybe.

EXCLUSIVE MPNblog.com ANALYSIS

Even though the outcome of the U.S. Census will determine how Congressional districts are apportioned throughout the country and how much money many federal programs will allocate to regions throughout the state, some Missourians are still fairly apathetic when it comes to answering questions from the federal government.

Of course the back story here is that nationally some Republicans, like Congressmen Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul, have fueled an anti-Census sentiment.

Fortunately in Missouri, the hype last year that Missouri would likely lose a Congressional district highlighted the importance of Census participation -- although it's not clear what the impact will be of the recent announcement that Missouri's ninth Congressional district doesn't appear to be at risk of being reapportioned to another state. So far, though, the anti-Census mood doesn't seem to be taking hold among Republican masses in Missouri. Only 22 of the state's counties currently have a lower percentage of households who have mailed back their Census forms than the national average, and those counties include a mix of Democratic and Republican leaning countries.

Using MPNblog.com's Missouri Voting Index for 2008, we conducted a simple statistical analysis determine if there's any evidence of a statistically significant difference between participation rates of red counties and blue counties.

A simple F-test indicates that the variances of county-level participation rates are not statistically significant (F=0.73, p=0.12), so we ran the data through a standard t-Test assuming equal variances. The results of this simple test suggest that, in fact, the mean participation rates are statistically different (p<.01). However, this statistical result is actually somewhat misleading. In reality, red and blue counties from 2008 both currently have an average Census participation rate of 55 percent, the variance among Republican counties just happens to be slightly less (and technically red counties are also 0.35% below blue counties). The maximum values -- 66 percent -- are represented by both red and blue counties. The minimum in each range is 34 percent for red counties and 36 percent for blue.

The graphic above, which shows 2008 MVI on the x-axis and Census participation on the y-axis, also helps us visually understand what the current data shows. Note especially that the mass of red counties actually create a hump of participation with higher participation rates in roughly the R+10 to R=15 range. Also, although probably complete coincidence, the six most partisan Republican counties in the state form a fairly linear line where as partisanship increases, so to does Census participation

When we ran the same statistical procedure with the 2000 participation rates (F=0.97, p=0.45), the results were also suggest significant difference in the means (p<.01). Using the 2000 participation rates, red counties averaged 69 percent participation while blue were 70 percent. The major difference here is that in 2000 the lowest reported red county participation rate was 38 percent while for blue counties it was 51 percent.

And for those wondering, the red county with the lowest participation rate in 2000 is also the one with the lowest participation rate currently -- Camden County.

So is there statistical evidence of a difference in participation rates? It appears so. However, is there a practical difference? Probably not, unless you live in Camden. Maybe Camden County's residents like the Feds knocking on their doors after all.

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