Congressional Candidate Ed Martin (R) will host a New Years celebration and fundraiser in St. Louis this evening.
The festivities at Orlando Gardens begin at 7:30 p.m. and will feature readings of the Bill of Rights by Dana Loesch, Bill Hennessey and David McArthur.
Admission costs $65 per person or $1,000 for ten admissions and a bottle of champagne.
Of the 1,441 invitations sent to supporters via Facebook, just 33 have indicated they will attend. As of 4 p.m. today, Martin's website claims all but 24 tickets have been sold.
Here's the full invitation:
Come Celebrate the New Year with Live Music, Cocktails, Refreshments, Dinner, and a piece of McArthur’s cake for dessert! At midnight there will be a champagne toast! The Chiaband will provide the live music.
There will be a Silent Auction of McArthur’s Bakery cakes that have images of the Bill of Rights and the Constitution on them.
Throughout the night, we will enjoy celebrity readings of the Bill of Rights and founding documents. Confirmed readers include Dana Loesch, Bill Hennessey, and David McArthur.
This New Years Party will be a celebration of the year we elect Ed Martin to the United States Congress where he will fight for our values! Please join us while we celebrate 2010!
This event is: $65.00 per person, $120.00 per couple, or $1,000 for a Patriot Table. A Patriot Table includes ten admissions, a bottle of Champagne, and name recognition as a sponsor of the 2010 New Year’s Eve Celebration.
To reserve your table please contact Jill at Jill@edmartinforcongress.com or by calling 314-256-1776 or register online at www.edmartinforcongress.com/newyears
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Ed Martin to celebrate New Years with fundraising bash
Group backing initiative to eliminate property taxes lacks fundraising committee
No more property taxes -- that's the mantra espoused by supporters of a petition to amend the state constitution.
But the group backing the amendment may soon hear something different from the Missouri Ethics Commission -- campaign finance violation.
In June the Missouri Secretary of State's office approved a petition to collect signatures for a constitutional amendment on the Nov. 2010 ballot to eliminate property and personal property taxes costing state and local government about $8.5 billion annually.
Although the petition does not explicitly say how local governments and school districts would recover lost revenue, supporters say the elimination of property taxes could be a boon for the state's economy which would attract new businesses seeking tax-free status.
The initiative was spearheaded by Angela Basham who developed the proposal over the last two years, according to a website advocating the proposal.
"Our legislatures [sic] have not been able to do anything for you...to limit the tax dollars on your real estate," Basham writes on a website for supporters. "Yes, this is a drastic measure and will require a massive re-do on the part of our legisature [sic] to provide revenue for public schools."
Supporters have not acknowledged that property taxes are generally considered by economists and government officials to be the most stable form of taxes available. During periods of economic downturns, income and sales taxes decrease disproportionate to property taxes, which then form the basis of government revenues. Under this initiative, income and sales taxes would become the primary avenue for government revenues, and thus increase the troughs experienced by governments during economic downturns.
The website for supporters encourages contributions for the initiative to the Campaign for the Elimination of Real and Personal Property Tax whose Treasurer is Judy Messex. As of Dec. 30, the Missouri Ethics Commission does not report that appropriate paperwork has been filed for this committee to collect funds.
Current state campaign finance laws require that any group distributing material about a ballot measure file a statement of organization within 20 days of the group's creation and subsequently file quarterly reports disclosing receipts and expenditures.
Related Links:
nomopropertytaxes.com
Basham on Youtube: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5
Official Petition (via Secretary of State website)
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Missouri, regional exports spiral downward in 3rd quarter of 2009
Analysis of data from the World Institute on Strategic Economic Research shows Missouri's year-to-date exports are down 29 percent from the same period in 2008. In raw dollar terms, exports are down $2.9 billion.
Regionally export activity is only marginally better, with 27 percent declines throughout the Midwestern Region.
Quarterly exports peaked in Missouri during the first quarter of 2007 and generally declined since. The current level of nominal export activity is roughly equal to that last seen during the third quarter of 2004, half a decade ago.
The impact on the state's gross domestic product, the premiere indicator of economic growth, won't be known for some time, but we can expect the result will be significant. In 2008, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated state GDP at $238 billion, meaning exports comprise about 4 percent of the total. So far this year, assuming state GDP doesn't decline in 2009 (an extremely conservative assumption), the export losses in the first three quarters of the year account for a reduction of 1 percent of GDP.
So far this year the hardest hit major industry, that is an industry with greater than $100 million in annual exports, is the petroleum and coal product industry with a 93 percent year-to-date decline in activity. The impact in this particular industry is amplified somewhat due to better-than-expected performance in 2008.
Two other industries that have seen their exports all but devastated include the $750 million Agricultural Products export industry with a 58 percent year-to-date decline, and the $450 million Waste and Scrap export industry with a 51 percent decline.
The only major industry in the state reporting a year-to-date increase was for food, which accounts for just 7 percent of the state's total exports.
Related Links:
WISERtrade.org
Governor calls for ethics reform
The state's executive branch chimed in on ethics reform today as Gov. Jay Nixon (D) sent a letter to legislators calling for comprehensive reform.
In 1994, an overwhelming majority of Missouri voters spoke loud and clear – they want real and meaningful controls on the influence of money in politics,” Nixon said in the letter. “In that election, 74% of Missourians voted for tough campaign contribution limits. …Meaningful ethics reform must begin with contribution limits…”
Nixon's proposal is built on four pillars:
The first component comes as no surprise given the upheaval in the political contribution world since the limits were lifted by the Republican-dominated legislature in 2008. Nixon also successfully presented the state's contribution limits to the U.S. Supreme Court in 1999, which upheld the limits.
The second pillar does come as a surprise, since this is a common practice employed by large political power brokers, including Nixon. During the 2008 campaign, Nixon adviser Chuck Hatfield perfected the transfers and funneled thousands to both Nixon and Attorney General Chris Koster through a committee called the Economic Growth Council. Neither candidate was found to have committed wrongdoing in coordinating these transfers. Koster's case, though, was extensively reviewed by the state Ethics Commission and dismissed only when the 7-member panel failed to approve further action with 3 abstentions.
"Missourians expect and deserve a government that is transparent, accountable and responsive," Nixon said. "Meaningful ethics reform will help make sure that each of us who holds the public trust lives up to that clear standard."
Related Links:
Letter sent by Nixon to General Assembly
Missouri cities rank high in literacy rankings
A new report ranking U.S. cities' literacy rates ranks Missouri's largest cities among the upper tier.
The analysis, conducted by Central Connecticut State University, creates an index for literacy in cities with populations above 250,000 based on newspaper circulation, number of bookstores, library resources, periodical publishing resources, educational attainment, and Internet resources.
"This set of factors measures people's use of their literacy and thus presents a large-scale portrait of our nation’s cultural vitality," university president Jack Miller writes. "From this data we can better perceive the extent and quality of the long-term literacy essential to individual economic success, civic participation, and the quality of life in a community and a nation."
In Missouri, St. Louis gets the top rating coming in at number 11. Kansas City was not far behind, with a ranking of 14.
The high Missouri ratings are driven by public library variables and high newspaper circulation per capita.
The conclusions may be somewhat overstated as the index does not attempt to analyze the outcome factors Miller writes about, but may nonetheless serve as a useful tool to consider which cities fare better than others.
Because the index does not provide data and only rankings, the use is limited. The rankings are provided below, but note that there is no indication on what the differential is in the actual scores. We can safely assume differentials are non-linear throughout the largest cities in the U.S., so this is definitely a shortcoming of the index.
There are more limitations given the combination of variables seem to be put together without a complete rationale or weighting scheme for doing so. The methodology is not transparent, so before the municipalities or statewide officials brag about these ratings, they would do well to dig a litter deeper into this data.
A more useful tool is the literacy rate estimates provided by the U.S. Dept. of Education. The most recent data from 2003 shows Missouri had just 7 percent of the population lacking basic prose literacy skills. Nationally that rate was about 15 percent in 2003.
What drives Missouri's better than average literacy rates? Is it better education? Higher quality libraries? We can't say. But if the CSSU authors would take their analysis one step further and employ advanced statistical techniques to their dataset, they might be able to provide some answers instead of just a ranking system.
Component Rankings
Booksellers: St. Louis (8), Kansas City (56)
Educational Attainment: Kansas City (27), St. Louis (49)
Internet Resources: Kansas City (12), St. Louis (38)
Public Libraries: St. Louis (2), Kansas City (9)
Newspaper Circulation: St. Louis (5), Kansas City (17)
Periodical Publishers: St. Louis (9), Kansas City (21)
Related Links:
CCSU Literacy Rankings 2009
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Large contributions total nearly $1 million to date in December
A lot of campaign committees are enjoying the holidays, thanks to a number of large financial contributions.
As of Dec. 29, a total of 66 contributions greater than $5,000 were reported to the Missouri Ethics Commission, totaling $922,000. And with two days left in the year more contributions are expected to roll in before the close of the fourth quarter fundraising period on Dec. 31.
The contributions were received by 39 different political committees. Advance St. Louis received 6 different contributions over $5,000, the most of any political committee in the month, totaling $60,000.
In terms of raw dollars, the Carpenters District Council of Kansas City PAC reported receiving the most in contributions greater than $5,000 with a total of $125,600 during Dec.
St. Louis developer Rex Sinquefield was the main source of funds for eight different political committees, contributing a total of $150,000 during the month. Recipients include St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley ($50,000), St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay ($50,000), House Republican Campaign Committee ($25,000), House Speaker Ron Richard ($5,001), Rep. Brian Nieves ($5,001), State Senate candidate Eric Schmitt ($5,001), State Senate candidate Mike Kehoe ($5,001), and the 11th Senatorial Leadership Committee ($5,001).
The full campaign finance reports for these candidates and political committees for the fundraising period ending Dec. 31 will be released Jan. 15, 2010.
Related Links:
Missouri Ethics Commission: 48 Contributions Over $5,000 Database
Monday, December 28, 2009
Nixon initiative to target high tech jobs to Missouri
Gov. Jay Nixon (D) recently outlined a proposal to attract science and high-tech jobs to the state.
Nixon outlined the initiative during a visit to the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center in St. Louis.
"We face tremendous opportunities to transform our economy for the 21st century, and it is vital that we not only bolster our existing high-tech and innovative employers, but also bring more of these cutting edge companies and their 21st century jobs to our state," Nixon said in a printed statement. "[This proposal] will help us capitalize on the growth of our existing science and technology companies to reinvest in generating further economic growth in the science and innovation industry sectors, which will be crucial to our future Missouri economy."
Nixon's proposal will be submitted as legislation called the Missouri Science and Innovation Reinvestment Act (MOSIRA). The proposal wold create funding for research and technology ventures using a small portion of growth in state revenues.
Legislation with a similar premise was filed in 2009 by Sen. Tom Dempsey (R) as SB 572 (2009) and by Rep. Shane Schoeller (R) as H.B. 1029 (2009).
The proposal comes weeks after research released by the Economic Development Administration (EDA) cited Missouri's innovative capacity below the national average.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Housing Board approves property tax relief for homebuyers
Gov. Jay Nixon (D) and State Treasurer Clint Zweifel (D) are applauding a recent move by the state Housing Development Commission to provide tax relief to Missouri homebuyers.
The relief, which comes in the form of property tax payment up to $1,250, is expected to benefit 9,000 to 11,000 taxpayers and is in addition to a federal tax credit of $8,000 for first-time homebuyers. Nixon and Zweifel both pushed the proposal which was ultimately supported by a 7-1 vote in the Housing Commission.
The lone vote against the $35 million plan was Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), who will likely challenge Nixon for the governorship in 2012.
The day of the vote, Kinder decried job losses in a Twitter post but provided no explanation for his vote against the measure.
The new program will provide property tax relief for families purchasing homes in Missouri after Jan. 1, 2010, and also includes up to $500 for energy-efficient upgrades including Energy Star appliances.
"When Missourians become homeowners, they achieve a piece of the American dream, while also boosting our state's economy," Nixon said in a statement. "This program will help thousands of Missouri families realize the dream of homeownership by relieving their property tax burden for one year and encourage fiscally sound, resource-saving practices. By offering this tax relief, working Missourians will be able to pump more money into our economy, and I applaud the MHDC for taking this important step today."
Here are highlights from the proposal as presented in Nixon's press release:
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Blunt within statistical margin of Carnahan in Senate battle
U.S. Congressman Roy Blunt (R) lags Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) by only 2 points in a recent poll of a hypothetical match-up between the two for Missouri's open Senate seat in 2010.
The poll showed 44 percent in favor of Blunt, 46 percent for Carnahan, 4 percent for another candidate, and 6 percent unsure. With the number of unsure voters and the margin of error, Blunt and Carnahan are in a statistical dead heat.
"This neck and neck poll by Rasmussen Reports is even more significant considering that Robin Carnahan's liberal special interests have spent nearly $1 million to air false and negative TV and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt for opposing cap and tax and a government-takeover of health care," a message from Blunt's campaign said Monday.
Health care, not surprisingly, is a major difference between the candidates.
"Carnahan leads overwhelmingly among those who favor the health care plan and holds a two-to-edge among those who are somewhat opposed to the plan," Rasmussen Reports indicated in the official release. "Blunt has an overwhelming advantage among those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan."
State Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), who is challenging Blunt in the Republican primary next year, was not included in the poll.
This same poll has been used by some Democrats to show that Gov. Jay Nixon's (D) approval rating -- 63 percent in this poll -- is significantly higher than what other polling firms have reported. Unfortunately the publicly available data from Rasmussen does not make understanding the differences in polls very transparent, but the divergence is likely to do with the smaller Rasmussen sample size (n=500) and variations on ideology and geographic residence.
Related Links:
Toplines from Rasmussen Poll
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Missouri innovation lags country, study says
"Innovation is a key ingredient in an economy’s ability to shift from lower to higher value-added activities, which in turn improve firm profits, compensation and the standard of living for the region’s residents," the study says. "Building on past research, this study developed a new index of innovation derived from a number of individual indicators, some reflecting inputs that enhance a region’s potential for innovation, and others reflecting outputs of innovative activity."
The study was designed to aid economic development practitioners target limited resources and lead regional economies to increased competitiveness in a global, knowledge-based economy. As one component of that study the research team constructed a Composite Innovation Index, comparing geographic units to the national total.
The "Innovation Index presents an overall picture of a region’s capacity to innovate and transform its economy," the authors wrote. "[T]his index helps assess a region’s competitive advantages and weaknesses, and gauges how adept the region may be in exploiting new and emerging industries."
Midwestern states all fall below the U.S. average index of 100. Only Illinois is close to the U.S. average, while all other states are at least 10 points below. Missouri is 14 points below the national average and in roughly the middle of Midwestern states.
These results are similar to the Kauffman Foundation's New Economy report released annually where Missouri's ranking continues to fall, ranking 37th among states in 2008.
So what does all this mean for the state? Missouri has some improvements to make in order to be competitive in not only the global economy, but also the national economy. As the authors emphasize, the topline score is not as important as what lies beneath. In Missouri, the Human Capital index and Economic Well-Being index show Missouri fairs generally well. WHere the state is lacking are the areas of productivity and economic dynamics.
According to the research group's website, productivity is a measure of output. This component's lowest performing metrics include growth in gross domestic product per worker and average patent activity per worker. Both metrics are well below the national average. In the economic dynamic piece, there seem to be sizable variations in research and development funding and venture capital investments in Missouri. These four metrics seem to be things that cannot be directly managed, but through a culture of investment in the Show Me State, could result in tangible and beneficial improvements to the state's economy.
The new EDA research goes one step further than what has been provided by the Kauffman Foundation and other researchers, to delve into county innovation which we can then compare to the state total (see map below).
Only one county in the entire state exceed the U.S. average -- St. Louis County, which has an index of 101. St. Louis County performed particularly well in the Human Capital component of the index, but remained below average in actual economic performance measures, or outputs.
On the other side of the state, the high innovation center of Johnson County resides in Kansas, just across the state line. Obviously this has some spill over benefit for Missouri, but shows a clear loss of innovation to a neighbor in the last couple decades.
And the million dollar question: how can Missouri overcome this innovation gap? The study doesn't offer any clear answers, but we can conclude based on the data that improvements in economic dynamics will translate into increased outputs in terms of productivity and economic well-being. It's not an easy road, but if Missouri is to have any competitive advantage in the long-term, this is an area policy makers should devote some time on over the next legislative session.
The Innovation Index research was conducted by the Indiana Business Research Center. The Rural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri Columbia also contributed to the study by developing a tool to prioritize public investments.
Related Links:
Innovation in American Regions (interactive website)
Innovation in American Regions: Innovation Index
Crossing the Regional Frontier (PDF via EDA website)
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Federal stimulus payments to Missouri exceed $2 billion
The new total, according to Dec. 20th data from Missouri's Map Your Taxes website, doubles total receipts reported by MPNblog.com in mid-October.
The state reported spending $1.66 billion of those funds so far, $580 million more than was spent through mid-October.
The state currently maintains a balance of $405 million left to be spent of currently available funds.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Ethics Commission disqualifies Democrat from Feb. special election
The Missouri Ethics Commission disqualified a Democratic House candidate from being listed on the ballot due to failure to file financial disclosure statements.
The action, reported in the Ethics Commission's minutes from a Dec. 18 meeting, removed Democratic candidate James Rynard from the Feb. 2 Special Election ballot in House District 62.
Now that Rynard is removed from the ballot, Republican Nita Jane Ayres will likely succeed Rep. Dennis Wood (R). Wood vacated the seat after being appointed by Gov. Jay Nixon (D) as the Stone County presiding commissioner.
Libertarian Patty Tweedle will also be listed on the ballot.
Stouffer's holiday message: 'promise of our country is under attack by liberals'
A holiday message from Bill Stouffer, candidate in the Republican primary for U.S. House District 4:
Dear Friend,
It is almost here - the day we celebrate the birth of our Savior in Jesus Christ! A new song says it well:
How many lords have abandoned their homes?
How many fathers gave up their sons for me?
God made a huge sacrifice in the gift of His Son so we can live forever if we make Him the Lord in our life.
It seems this year folks are starting to use the word sacrifice more often. Perhaps it is their home budget, a morning off to drive a neighbor to a cancer treatment, or extra time for a church activity... all over rural Missouri, folks are working hard to make ends meet.
Campaigns are tough - attacks, tireless schedules, and high goals abound. However, I have never been involved in a race like this: Every stop we make, every new friend we meet - all the folks we talk to are sacrificing so much to join us in one refrain - "enough is enough."
You will not hear me claim to be God's candidate in this race. I don't think one party has a monopoly on wisdom and grace, either. However, I pray every day for God's guidance and to seek His will. I will continue to do so as we try to do what we can to restore America's promise to our next generation.
The promise of our country is under attack by liberals in Washington, D.C., including Ike Skelton, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. This includes issues like "cap-and-trade" that will double our electric rates in Missouri, "card check" to bring more Detroit-style union workplaces to the state, a federal healthcare takeover to strip more freedoms from our citizens and higher taxes hidden in every proposal made.
We can make a difference by removing Ike Skelton from Congress, a representative that votes with Nancy Pelosi 95% of the time. If we cannot make a difference here, then where? If not in 2010, then when?
I want to thank you for the sacrifice you have already made in this effort - whether it be financial, volunteer work, or your prayers.
Working together, we can all do our part to restore America's promise right here in Rural Missouri.
To contribute or join our cause, visit www.stoufferforcongress.com.
Merry Christmas!
House District 30: Norris leads fundraising in toss-up district
As of Sept. 30, the close of the most recent fundraising period, Norris reported $18,600 in receipts for the election cycle to date, and no Republican challengers had yet emerged.
Over the last couple weeks two candidates created fundraising committees including attorney Nickolas Marshall and Platte County resident Sherri Plunkett, who already boasts more than 400 Facebook supporters.
The seat is currently held by Rep. Jason Brown (R), who will be term-limited after serving the final year of his term in 2010. This seat is currently rated by Missouri Political News as a toss-up seat in 2010, and a Republican primary may make it all the more competitive for Democrats if no one rises to challenge Norris.
At the close of the last quarter, Norris reported disbursements just under $1,400 and $14,300 cash-on-hand.
That 2002 is the comparison point for Norris to consider since that was a Republican favored year and the last time the seat was open. The closeness of the 2002 race is the reason MPNblog.com has labeled this a toss-up district.
Related Links:
House District 30 Map (PDF)
Norris Campaign Website
Norris Campaign Finance Reports
Marshall Campaign Finance Reports
Plunkett Campaign Website
Plunkett Campaign Finance Reports
Monday, December 21, 2009
Livengood: six figure campaign contributions spur talk of new limits
Are large contributions driving a call for new limits on campaign contributions? The Springfield News-Leader's Chad Livengood says "yes" in his Sunday column:
When then-Gov. Matt Blunt and the Republican-controlled state legislature repealed campaign contribution limits in August 2008, lawmakers promised greater transparency and an end to laundering money through committees to conceal the source.
Read Livengood's full column here.
Since then, the big bucks have flowed into the coffers of politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Five-figure checks to candidates, political parties and political action committees have become the norm -- and six-figure checks are not unheard of.
During last year's election, Republican attorney general candidate Mike Gibbons set the bar high for the largest contribution ever by accepting a $1.1 million lump sum from a Virginia-based political action group.
But it appears some Republican lawmakers are having buyers' remorse.
"It's gotten out of hand in (Jefferson) City as far as I'm concerned," said Rep. Gary Dusenberg, a fourth-term Republican lawmaker from Blue Springs.
Dusenberg has introduced a bill to limit contributions to $10,000 for statewide candidates, $5,000 for Senate and $2,500 for House candidates. The previous limit was $1,375 for statewide, $675 for Senate and $325 for House candidates.
In 1994, Missouri voters overwhelmingly approved campaign contribution limits. But to get around the restrictions, donors would routinely funnel money through multiple PACs and political party committees, which would pass the money to the candidate the donor intended to support.
Supporters say the new system has reduced the amount of legalized money laundering.
"It has slowed it down," said Senate President Pro Tem Charlie Shields, R-St. Joseph. "There's not a perfect system out there."
Missouri Voting Index -- 2008
Missouri Political News is releasing the first iteration of the Missouri Voting Index (MVI), an indexing method that examines competitiveness by county for statewide candidates.
MVI averages official electoral votes for statewide offices and compares the county-level totals to the statewide averages. The index provides an indication of which counties are the most and least partisan in the state, and can be a useful tool to analyze which regions are most important in electoral outcomes statewide.
The MVI is modeled in part after the national Partisan Voting Index developed by the Cook Political Report, however, MVI targets statewide political races instead of Congressional districts. Also, because MVI does not seek to explain national voting trends, the MVI does not need to rely on presidential data for comparison to regions across the country.
A Missouri Voting Index of R+5 means that in 2008, that Republicans received more votes than Democrats and the county performed 5 percentage points higher than the state as a whole, in terms of the total number of votes cast in the Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Attorney General races. In some counties, the majority of voters may have favored one party over the other while still doing so at a rate less than the statewide performance; these states are denoted with an asterisk (*) to indicate that the county has negative, below average performance.
In 2008, Democrats received 55 percent of the statewide votes and Republicans received 45 percent. So if a county cast 60 percent of its votes for Democrats its MVI would be D+5.
Why Index Voting Tendencies?
Often the political punditry claims out-state, rural areas are exclusively dominated by Republicans whereas cities are controlled by Democrats, but that isn't the case at all. Indexing a useful tool to examine where variations in this logic occur.
Over time, population and sentiment shifts may alter a county's voting trends. The MVI enables analysis of these trends over time for an easily understandable reference.
The results of the MVI for 2008 demonstrate that partisanship varies widely across the state. While Kansas City and St. Louis lean strongly Democratic, there are many out-state counties that also have Democratic leanings.
The most partisan area of the state, according to the MVI, is St. Louis City (D+29) followed closely by Barton County (R+26) and Kansas City (D+25).
A handful of counties in 2008 leaned Democratic but had average Democratic support below the state totals (shown in purple on map). This was driven largely by substantial Democratic support in the metropolitan areas of the state as well as popular support for two Democratic candidates -- Gov. Jay Nixon and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan -- concentrated in a small number of counties. For example, in Adair County, Republicans defeated Democrats in the Lt. Gov., Treasurer, and Attorney General races, but not the other two statewide races. The average across races resulted in a net Democratic lean for the district (51 percent of the total vote) whereas the county performed 5 percentage points below the Democratic performance statewide.
These purple counties are perhaps the most interesting to watch over time because they often result in swinging close races, and while traditionally thought of as largely Republican leaning, voters will also support some Democrats.
The number of highly partisan Republican counties (46) greatly exceeds the number of partisan Democratic counties (2). This is important because the two solid blue counties on the map counted for only 10 percent of index votes whereas the solid red counties accounted for 18 percent of the total index votes. In other words, these highly partisan areas are unlikely to swing in favor of the other party and the partisanship statewide tends to favor Republicans. That is, Democrats are forced to rely much more heavily on independents and swing voters than Republicans in major elections.
Related Links:
MVI Methodology
County-by-county results for MVI 2008
Missouri Voting Index (MVI) 2008 -- county-by-county results
COUNTY MVI
COUNTY MVI
ADAIR D+*
LINN D+*
ANDREW R+10
LIVINGSTON R+7
ATCHISON R+15
MACON R+11
AUDRAIN R+6
MADISON D+*
BARRY R+15
MARIES R+8
BARTON R+26
MARION R+10
BATES D+*
MCDONALD R+20
BENTON R+6
MERCER R+19
BOLLINGER R+16
MILLER R+16
BOONE D+2
MISSISSIPPI D+*
BUCHANAN D+1
MONITEAU R+12
BUTLER R+14
MONROE R+7
CALDWELL R+7
MONTGOMERY R+9
CALLAWAY R+7
MORGAN R+9
CAMDEN R+12
NEW MADRID D+0
CAPE GIRARDEAU R+16
NEWTON R+23
CARROLL R+11
NODAWAY R+9
CARTER D+*
OREGON D+*
CASS R+6
OSAGE R+15
CEDAR R+14
OZARK R+10
CHARITON D+*
PEMISCOT D+3
CHRISTIAN R+17
PERRY R+14
CLARK D+*
PETTIS R+7
CLAY D+1
PHELPS R+7
CLINTON D+*
PIKE D+*
COLE R+9
PLATTE D+*
COOPER R+9
POLK R+13
CRAWFORD R+7
PULASKI R+10
DADE R+17
PUTNAM R+22
DALLAS R+10
RALLS D+*
DAVIESS R+8
RANDOLPH R+8
DEKALB R+10
RAY D+4
DENT R+10
REYNOLDS D+4
DOUGLAS R+14
RIPLEY R+9
DUNKLIN D+*
SALINE D+4
FRANKLIN D+*
SCHUYLER R+7
GASCONADE R+13
SCOTLAND R+8
GENTRY R+7
SCOTT R+10
GREENE R+8
SHANNON D+2
GRUNDY R+15
SHELBY R+12
HARRISON R+15
ST CHARLES D+*
HENRY D+0
ST CLAIR R+6
HICKORY D+*
ST FRANCOIS D+2
HOLT R+20
ST LOUIS CITY D+29
HOWARD D+*
ST LOUIS COUNTY D+7
HOWELL R+12
STE GENEVIEVE D+8
IRON D+7
STODDARD R+13
JACKSON (LESS KC) D+0
STONE R+17
JASPER R+20
SULLIVAN R+9
JEFFERSON D+4
TANEY R+17
JOHNSON D+*
TEXAS R+9
KANSAS CITY D+25
VERNON R+8
KNOX R+11
WARREN R+7
LACLEDE R+14
WASHINGTON D+7
LAFAYETTE D+*
WAYNE D+*
LAWRENCE R+16
WEBSTER R+12
LEWIS R+6
WORTH R+11
LINCOLN D+*
WRIGHT R+16
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Nixon approval recovers in December, ticks up to 49 percent
A SurveyUSA poll released last Friday shows Nixon's approval climbed 4 points in the past month, from 44 percent in Nov. to 49 percent this month.
A total of 42 percent disapproved of Nixon's performance and 9 percent of respondents were unsure.
The increase, within the survey's statistical margin of error, may be due in part to an increase in the number of Democrats surveyed. In Nov., 30 percent of the respondents were Democrats and 57 percent of those approved of Nixon's performance. This month, the number of Democratic respondents increased to 36 percent (+6%) and 63 percent of surveyed Democrats approved (+6%).
Regionally Nixon's approval climbed in the Southwest (+14%) and Southeast (+28%) regions, but note the regional data has a margin of error of more than 10 percentage points. Nixon's approval actually declined in St. Louis, a Democratic stronghold, from 61 percent in Nov. to 55 percent in Dec.
SurveyUSA surveyed 600 likely Missouri voters on Dec. 14. The topline numbers have a margin of error of +/-4.1 percent; crosstabs have larger margins of error.
Related Links:
SurveyUSA Crosstabs for Nixon in Dec. 2009
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Skelton: in 2010 Congress must work to 'bolster rural economies and spur job growth'
U.S. Congressman Ike Skelton's (D) weekly column:
On December 16, 2009, the first session of the 111th Congress came to a close in the House of Representatives. With America suffering from the worst economic recession in decades, this session has faced extraordinary challenges. Much of the good things accomplished this year were built around bipartisan consensus and common-sense logic. Yet other legislative efforts, although well intentioned, have not upheld the interests and values of rural Missouri.
One new law that will have a profound impact on the health of children in the Fourth District is the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act. This legislation, which passed with the support of Republicans and Democrats, extends health care coverage to over 81,000 Missouri children whose parents earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but who cannot yet afford private insurance. Ensuring the health of our children will yield positive results for the health of every family and for our economy.
For women and families, the Congress enacted and the President signed into law the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which will reduce workplace discrimination and ensure that women receive the same compensation as their male counterparts. Equal pay is not simply a women’s issue; low wages for women tend to decrease family incomes and limit access to daily essentials like groceries and adequate childcare. This new law will increase rural incomes, help rebuild the middle class, and strengthen the economy by promoting fair pay and job stability for women.
For our nation’s military personnel, I worked as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to pass a strong, bipartisan National Defense Authorization Act. This bill increases military salaries by 3.4 percent, expands funding for the medical care of our warriors, and includes over $400 million in family support funds. And, I helped to write and enact an important new law to crack down on wasteful Defense Department cost overruns that the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office had said were costing taxpayers nearly $300 billion. For veterans, the 111th Congress ensured quality, affordable health care by limiting TRICARE fee increases, increasing the numbers of military health clinics nationwide, and funding the VA in advance to guarantee timely care.
To strengthen Missouri families, the 111th Congress enacted broad tax relief and has worked to blunt the impact of the recession on as many working Americans as possible. Legislation has been passed to stimulate economic activity and create jobs. In Missouri, we have seen teachers and other public servants retain jobs that may have otherwise vanished because local tax revenues have diminished in the recession. The House recently voted to extend assistance to help teachers, police officers, and firefighters retain work and to spur additional job creation.
The 111th Congress has also enacted key measures to strengthen security at U.S. ports and along our border with Mexico; to invest in science, technology, innovation, education, and health research; to improve community safety; and to strengthen tourism and rural economies. Action has been taken by Congress to promote the interests of agriculture, too, as dairy farmers secured $350 million in emergency funds and an international trade dispute with China, harmful for American farmers, was fixed. This year, I also hosted Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and the Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee in the Fourth District.
Much work remains on other issues taken up by Congress, like energy legislation, health care, financial regulatory reform, and a chemical security bill. And, when Congress returns in January, it must continue working to bolster rural economies and spur job growth. As always, I remain committed to joining Republicans and Democrats as we find common sense solutions to America’s pressing challenges.
Follow your favorite candidates -- and their opponents -- on Twitter
Over the next several weeks MPNblog.com will release a series of posts with websites and links to candidates' Twitter feeds.
The first in the series of these releases is for candidates in the Missouri 2010 U.S. Senate Campaign. Click here for the links.
2010 Senate Campaign Websites and Twitter Accounts
Democratic Candidates | Republican Candidates |
David Jefferson (D) [No Twitter Feed] [No Website] | Chuck Purgason (R) |
Davis Conway (R) [No Twitter Feed] [No Website] | |
Mark Memoly (R) [No Twitter Feed] |
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Hartzler employs chain letter tactics to garner support
Former State Sen. Vicky Hartzler (R) is encouraging Facebook followers to forward a message to friends, a classic chain letter technique.
"I challenge you to forward [this message] to 20 of your friends as well," Hartzler says in a letter sent out on Facebook. "We need all the help we can get right now to continue to put the Dems on the defensive and establish our campaign as the only right choice in 2010..."
Hartzler doesn't proclaim forwarding the letter will result in luck or a longer life, but it would of course increase name recognition, which will be crucial to winning the Republican primary next year in the 4th US House District.
Hartzler is currently involved in a five-way Republican primary that includes active campaigns from Roy Viessman, Bill Stouffer, Brian Riley, and Jim Scholz. The winner of that campaign will face conservative U.S. Congressman Ike Skelton (D), the incumbent who has represented the 4th District in the U.S. House since 1977.
Here's the message from Hartlzer in its entirety:
Subject: Congressman Ike Skelton Sent Me A Christmas Gift
Good morning!
I am sending you a letter that recently went out to our mailing list about a new tactic the Democrats are trying against me. Please enjoy, and I challenge you to forward it to 20 of your friends as well. We need all the help we can get right now to continue to put the Dems on the defensive and establish our campaign as the only right choice in 2010, and every little bit helps! If each member of our group gave only $20, for instance, that would be nearly $14,000! If you or anyone you know are able to contribute in any way, please do so by December 31 to help make a strong year-end statement of support for the Missouri heartland values we hold dear. And thank you so much in advance.
You can send your contribution to P.O. Box 531, Harrisonville, MO 64701 or at http://www.facebook.com/l/40887;www.vickyhartzler.com
_________________________________
You have heard me say this campaign is about “WE,” not me. Well, let me tell you about Mike, our new Democrat tracker who followed us from rally to rally in the recent kickoff blitz throughout the district.
Mike the Tracker, who seems to be a nice young man, trailed us to videotape every word I said about my conservative positions, our campaign to put the people back in charge of our district’s vote, and Mr. Skelton’s very liberal party-line voting with Nancy Pelosi and the President.
I know sometimes we all wonder if we are being heard in Washington, D.C. We can stop wondering. We are being heard but not in a way to change things for the better. Their solution is not to stop advancing their radical agenda; it is to spy on the opposition. The Democrats sent a fellow out here for the tacky work of taping my every word … me, a farm girl from Archie, a year before the election!
Why is a 33-year incumbent Member of Congress so worried? I feel honored that they’re scared, and you should be honored, too. The liberals who dominate the other party are engaged in this race so early because of you and your vital and continuing support.
When Congressman Skelton and his political consultants watch Mike’s movies, they will hear from you and me about the common sense, conservative ideas the incumbent has been ignoring for so long. (Despite his job, Mike is a polite young man. Please join me in the hope that some Missouri common sense will rub off on him!)
It’s sad that Mr. Skelton wouldn’t listen to the people BEFORE he gave Nancy Pelosi his voting record of 97% support for her radical liberal agenda. He is voting over and over not for the values, prosperity, and positions of his constituents, but for Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco values. I’m letting the truth be known and offering a plan that will work, but I need your help.
I need your generous financial help in this cause, right now. We can see that the Washington, D.C. liberals will go as low as they think it takes to hang onto a supporter of the Pelosi-Obama agenda.
I know the incumbent does not want us talking about the reckless spending of his broken Congress. He does not want people to know his record of job killing new taxes and his virtually total support for the extreme Pelosi-Obama program.
Perhaps the incumbent thinks his liberal voting does not matter to us. It matters! The Skelton-Obama jobless rate of 10.2 percent represents daily hardship and anxiety for families throughout our district. Their plan of reckless big spending, taxes and debt has failed. It is time for a better plan and we have it! It starts with lower taxes for small businesses (where real jobs are created) working families, and our seniors.
On the recent kick off tour, I met local business leaders who are unable to hire new employees due to an ever higher tax burden imposed by Washington. They reported that even more layoffs are inevitable if Congress forces even more taxes.
I met one business leader that is being forced to shut down because “Government Motors” refuses to sell him any more cars. The dealership was profitable, but “Government Motors” decided it needed to be shut down. Congressman Skelton voted to give government bureaucrats this power over free enterprise.
We know better. America and the Fourth District need more freedom, less government control, and lower taxes--not more.
With your support we can take back this district for the ideas we believe in and the values we hold dear. We have an opportunity to move America toward the right direction for a bright future of freedom, opportunity, and prosperity.
I would be deeply honored to have your support. I humbly ask for your prayers and your financial investment to help us succeed. If we stand together in 2010 we can bring home a mighty victory. We can do it!
Will you sacrificially join with me and send a contribution of $1000, $500, $250, $100, or even $50 by December 31? Any amount you can send would be appreciated and go a long way towards helping us stand up to the campaign tricks of Congressman Skelton!
I will stand up for you. Will you stand with me?
Thank you for your most serious consideration and for your support. I look forward to fighting alongside you again for the values we hold dear.
Fighting for you—
Vicky
Post-Dispatch: Keep streets safe, even if it means using red light cameras
The growing use of red light cameras in Missouri hasn't gone unnoticed, but just like the tickets issued by municipalities that use the cameras, the outrage was a little delayed.
The Post-Dispatch's Editorial Board now weighs in:
If car owners are worried about traffic citations for red-light violations, they should abide by the traffic laws — and lend their vehicles only to people who are careful drivers. Common sense is the best way to protect constitutional rights — and promote public safety.Read the full editorial here.
Responsible municipal officials, meanwhile, should be held accountable for how they enforce the law. But they also should be permitted to pursue promising technologies for keeping our streets safe — including through use of red-light cameras.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Hartzler declares climate change a 'hoax'
Updated
Twitter has become former State Sen. Vicky Hartler's (R) favorite medium to post short blips against the issue of the day.
Today, Hartzler, a former home economics teacher, texted 136 characters to vocalize her opposition to ongoing efforts in Copenhagen to address anthropogenic carbon dioxide production.
"Enjoying another beautiful global warming day in Missouri!" Hartzler proclaimed in the Twitter update. "Rep. Skelton and the UN Summit need to quit their [distribution] of wealth for a hoax."
Earlier this month Hartzler criticized President Barack Obama's jobs summit by referring to it as a "PR summit" in a Twitter post.
Hartlzer, the self-proclaimed leader in a five-way primary contest, is vying for the Republican primary nomination in Missouri's 4th Congressional District. The other contenders include Roy Viessman, Bill Stouffer, Brian Riley, and Jim Scholz.
The winner of that contest will face U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton (D) in Nov. 2010.
Koster takes action to enforce environmental statutes
One month ago MPN criticized state Attorney General Chris Koster's office for lackluster enforcement of environmental statutes. Last week, Koster's office took notable action in teh environmental arena.
In fact the only press releases issued by Koster's office during the week were for environmental enforcement actions.
Taking care of our environment is a responsibility we all share," Koster said in one press release. "This office takes that responsibility seriously and will continue to vigorously enforce the laws governing the use of our natural resources."
Those actions include
Monday, December 14, 2009
Yates says Jeff City lawmaking a 'scam'
The Kansas City Star's Steve Kraske has a piece from the weekend highlighting some major problems in Jefferson City, according to one former lawmaker. It's definitely worth a quick read:
Former Missouri state Rep. Brian Yates couldn’t hold back.Read the full story here.
Having resigned his seat Dec. 1 midway through his final term, the Lee’s Summit Republican let loose this week with a no-holds-barred assessment of the state of Jefferson City.
Yates, who served seven years and had more than a few run-ins with leaders of his own party, didn’t call the Capitol a political cesspool. But he came close.
Serving in the General Assembly, he said, had become a “scam.”
Sunday, December 13, 2009
State foreclosure rate shows improvment from one year ago
In Oct. 2009 the company identified 3,218 foreclosure filing in Missouri, a 12 percent decline from Oct. 2008. The rate is now one in about every 800 homes across the state, the 30th highest rate nationwide. That rate is well below the national average foreclosure rate which is one in 400 homes.
“Foreclosure activity...remained well below the level reported for this time last year,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “The number of default notices reported dropped 75 percent during the month. The state’s unemployment rate also dropped to 9.3 percent during the month. Both are factors that can help slow the pace of foreclosure activity.”
The state Dept. of Economic Development noted last Friday that the unemployment rate ticked back up in Nov., which will likely mean a marginal increase in foreclosures for Nov. as well.
RealtyTrac's methodology does not include all 84 Missouri counties, but incorporates the 50 most populous in the state. RealtyTrac includes all phases of foreclosure -- Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Auctions, and Real Estate Owned properties. Only the most recent filing per property is considered to avoid double counting.
Related Links:
RealtyTrac Oct. 2009 Missouri Foreclosure Report
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Nixon Administration buries negative economic report; unemployment ticks up in Nov.
The day and time of the economic release alone indicate what may be a growing and concerted effort by the Nixon Administration to control media on the economy, especially when the news isn't rosy.
Typically negative news is released on Fridays because many reporters do not work over the weekend and Saturday readership tends to be the lowest in the week (including this site). The official release of this data from across the country by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for late next week.
There are two distinct differences in Nov. from previous months. The first is that the national and Missouri trends moved in opposite directions. Unemployment declined nationally in Nov. to 10 percent. While the Missouri rate is still lower, the increasing trend suggests the state may be losing a comparative advantage in the current labor market.
The second difference is that last month, when the unemployment rate marginally improved, the press release was loaded with Nixon quotes and references to a study that called Missouri's economy "emerging." This month, just the bad news.
MPN reviewed all economic releases from DED since the Nixon Administration took office, and the only one to include a quote from Nixon was for Oct., when the rate decreased slightly.
Before anyone starts criticizing the timing of releases, we should note that this year 3 came on Mondays, 4 on Tuesdays, 1 on Wednesday and 2 on Fridays. That's actually a pretty good distribution considering the news has been largely negative in 2009.
It's also noteworthy that under the previous Administration there was a much more concerted effort to control economic news by releasing positive trends from the Governor's office and negative trends from DED. The Nixon Administration has opted to have DED release all the reports.
So what is it that politicians in Jefferson City want Missourians to take away from these reports? That governors should only be associated with improvements in the economy, declines in employment must be someone else's fault.
The reality is that governor's have little to do with the ebb and flow of the labor market, despite what opposing parties tend to assert when things aren't going well. Economists knew eventually the business cycle would dip again, and unemployment rates would go northward. What wasn't known in advance was when precisely the next dip would occur or how long it would last.
Of course we now know we're in that dip, but Gov. Jay Nixon can only credit Missouri businesses for creating jobs. Former Gov. Matt Blunt (R) was always clear to assign credit where the credit was due.
At the same time, it's businesses that remove jobs, not the state and certainly not the governor. Politicians often lose sight of this because the negative perception doesn't help increase approval ratings. And Nixon's low approval rating at present is partly indicative of the current economic climate.
That economic climate, according to the DED report, resulted in payroll employment declines of 3,600 in Nov. Decreases fell in the retail trade sector (-2,600), manufacturing (-2,000), and accommodation and food services (-900). Increases were observed in the construction (+1,800) and health care and social assistance (+1,100) sectors.
Related Links:
DED Nov. Jobs Report (PDF)
DED Oct. Jobs Report (PDF)
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Senate Vote Analysis
Lafayette County Republicans are citing our Senate Vote analysis from 2008 to bolster state Sen. Bill Stouffer's conservative credentials. Our analysis found in 2008 Stouffer never voted against the Republican party line when votes were contested between Democrats and Republicans.
Stouffer is currently a candidate in a four-way Republican primary to challenge U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton (D) in Nov. 2010. The other Republicans include Vicky Hartzler, Brian Riley, and Jim Scholz.
To view all of our legislative analyses click here.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
House District 159: Wright announces re-election campaign
"There is still work to do and I am asking District 159 constituents to allow me to once again serve them in a final term as their representative so that I might be granted the opportunity to finalize several plans that remain in the works in the House," Wright said.
Wright, who if re-elected will be term-limited in 2012, will likely face perennial challenger Bill Burlison (D) who recently filed paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to begin fundraising for the 2010 election cycle.
Burlison and Wright faced off previously in 2008, but Burlison was defeated by a 24-point margin. In 2010, a year likely to favor Republicans, the same outcome is to be expected.
In Wright's two preceding races, he won by slightly smaller margins of 10-points in 2004 and 13-points in 2006 against former Dexter High School football coach Boyce Wooley (D).
Wright's 42 itemized contributors in the third quarter, included 12 political committees donating $4,675 total, or 28 percent of Wright's total itemized fundraising during the period. He also received 27 itemized contributions from donors in the Southeast Region of the state, at an average of about $400 each.
Burlison will file his first full finance report in mid-January.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Jetton: 'In politics if you're going to be successful, you've got to manage your data"
Background on Jetton and Associates, where "we like helping good conservatives get elected to office." Hosted by Rod Jetton (a.k.a. Jedi Jetton):
Jetton's website pulled offline, consulting business to close
One day after former Missouri House Speaker Rod Jetton's (R) was arrested and charged with second-degree assault, a spokesman confirmed Jetton would close his political consulting business.
Jetton's former campaign website, turned official consulting website, was no longer active Tuesday evening at RodJetton.org. That site, managed by Dave Green of the Creative Design Group in Malden, MO, is registered through Oct. 2011 according to WhoIs.net. An archive is still available here or cached here.
Also, the alternate domain for Jetton's official consulting website is shut down. That site was registered to his consulting firm's number two, Eric Brooks.
Jetton's lawyer, Stephen Wilson, released the following statement Tuesday making the announcement official:
Rod Jetton is announcing that he will be closing Rod Jetton & Associates, his consulting firm.
He will be leaving politics to deal with false allegations and spend time with his family. He is confident that when the facts of this case are heard,he will be found innocent.
Jetton feels that right now he can best help his clients, former employees and family by closing the doors of his consulting company.
He expects to finalize his business dealings by the end of 2009.
A full list of Jetton's clients in 2009 is available here.
Former House Speaker accused of felony after signing legislation in 2006 to amend law
Former House Speaker Rod Jetton (R) was accused Monday of a Class C felony in a complaint filed with Scott County Circuit Court. The law Jetton is accused of violating -- second-degree assault -- was amended while Jetton served in the Missouri House and even signed by Jetton.
A probable cause affidavit, filed by Scott County Prosecutor Paul Boyd (D), claims 42-year-old Jetton assaulted the victim repeatedly after she lost consciousness and reported "blank spots in her memory." Jetton reportedly supplied the victim a glass of wine that resulted in the victim "fading," after which she reported being hit and choked by Jetton.
The affidavit also says Jetton and the victim established a "safe word" to stop sexual intercourse. That word: "Green balloons." The affidavit goes on to say "Mr. Jetton stayed the night with [the victim] and when he woke up he gave [the victim] a kiss and said, 'You should have said green balloons.'"
A warrant was issued for Jetton's arrest Monday with a $2,500 bond, according to Missouri CaseNet. Media reports, however, indicate he was not in custody.
From 2001 to 2009 Jetton represented Missouri's House District 156, which includes portions of Bollinger, Madison and Wayne counties. From 2005 to 2008 he also served as the Speaker of the House, controlling which pieces of legislation proceed to the floor for votes.
Jetton currently runs a political consulting firm called Rod Jetton & Associates. During the first three quarters of 2009, Jetton's firm reported receipts of more than $60,000 from 10 Republican candidates and two other political committees. The candidates include Sen. Rob Mayer, Rep. Brian Nieves, Rep. Steve Tilley, Rep. Tim Jones, Rep. Dwight Scharnhorst, Rep. Jason Smith, Rep. Michael Schoeller, Rep. Don Ruzicka, Rep. Sue Allen, and Rep. Shelley Keeney (who now holds Jetton's former seat).
Court records indicate Jetton divorced his wife, Cassandra, in Oct.
An editorial slated to run in the Kansas City Star Tuesday says this may be the nail in the coffin for Jetton's political career.
"The Legislature should have curbed Jetton's power with ethics legislation," Barb Shelly writes. "Now, a woman's allegations may accomplish that feat."
Related Links:
Jetton Probable Cause Affidavit (via KY3)
Missouri CaseNet
S.B. 872 Legislative History
Prime Buzz Link (first reported)
Monday, December 7, 2009
Cash for Clunkers a hit in Missouri, results in 14,000 trade-ins
More than 14,000 Missourians took advantage of a federal program to trade-in older vehicles for newer ones that were generally also more fuel efficient. The program was at one point or another supported by Missouri's entire Congressional delegation, Republican and Democrat.
The Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), known less formally as Cash for Clunkers, ended back in Sept. Data to measure the program’s impact was just recently released by the U.S. Dept. of Transportation.
Nationally the program resulted in 677,000 vehicle trade-ins valued at $2,850 million in federal rebates.
"There can be no doubt that this program drummed up more business, for more people, in more places, at a time when our economy needed help the most," U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said.
In Missouri, a total of 14,415 trade-ins were reported at 390 dealerships, with a cost to taxpayers of $60.8 million, according to MPN’s analysis of the data.
On average, cars purchased under the program in Missouri were 56 percent above the average fuel economy of cars that were traded in, an average increase in fuel economy of almost nine miles per gallon (MPG).
The most common trade-ins in Missouri were for Ford and Chevy makes. Of those trading in 4,582 Fords, 62 percent bought new cars from U.S.-owned car companies. A surprising 28 percent purchased cars from Honda or other Japanese-owned multi-national manufacturers. (Note that many of these cars are actually manufactured in the U.S.) A slightly lower proportion of those trading in Chevrolets opted for foreign-makes in their new vehicles.
Altogether of the 14,415 vehicles traded-in, they were replaced by cars from U.S. manufacturers 55 percent of the time for an average increase in fuel economy of 7.6 MPG.
There were, however, instances where fuel economy didn’t improve but only two identified in Missouri. And in both of those cases, fuel economy declined by only one MPG. In both cases, the cars traded in were more than a decade old, thus the estimated fuel economy impact may have been understated since fuel economy is a function also of engine maintenance – the older the car, the more likely the fuel economy is to decline with time.
So what does all this mean for Missourians? In general the program met its aims locally benefiting car state manufacturers and auto dealers. The incentive spurred immediate consumer behavior, which is more than can be said for much of the federal government's other stimulus programs.
Of course the real gains were for those individuals who opted to take advantage of the incentive. And over time, we will all theoretically experience some nominal benefit from the improved fuel economy.
Even though Missouri's Congressional delegation supported the program in round 1, when it came time to reauthorize or extend the program, there were no takers.
“We simply cannot afford any more [taxpayer dollars] to extend cash for clunkers,” McCaskill said via Twitter. “Idea was to prime the pump, not subsidize auto purchases forever.”
The program officially ended at the close of Sept. when the federal government said all available funds had been expended.
Related Links:
CARS website
OpenCongress Vote History for H.R. 2346
Related Blog Posts:
FiredUp Missouri: Blunt stands by Cash for Clunkers vote
AIP: Clunkers and (Russ) Carnahan: How a Missouri Congressman junked his constituents
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