Rep. Brian Yates (R) will resign from the Missouri House Tuesday, becoming the fifth state legislator to do so this year.
Yates, who represents Lee's Summit, cannot seek re-election due to legislative term limits. Instead, he will devote his time to QC Holdings, a company that owns nearly 600 payday loan stores.
"Term limits are going to force a large group out of the House next year," Yates told the Independence Examiner last week. "Major turnover is looming for the House again next year, and I feel for our area that it might be advantageous for a new member to get a start on that new class."
In 2008, Yates won re-election by a 25-point margin, slightly below the 28-point margin when he initially won the seat in 2002.
Related Links:
Independence Examiner Story
Monday, November 30, 2009
Yates to resign from House
Ethics Commission quiet as Campaign Finance violator list rapidly grows due to 48 Hour Reports
EXCLUSIVE MPN ANALYSIS
Chalk this analysis up as a win for transparency and a loss for the reliability of some elected officials. An analysis of campaign finance data by MPN identified a large number of violations resulting from a new law, for which no action has been taken.
In 2008 Missouri lawmakers revised the state's campaign finance law to remove caps on contributions. In exchange for the removal, lawmakers claimed to increase transparency of now limitless contributions by requiring recipient committees to report the contribution to the Missouri Ethics Commission within 48 hours of receipt. The law provides no exceptions for this requirement since reports are filed online.
MPN's analysis identified 54 violations of campaign finance law since the beginning of 2009 from 31 different political committees.
Candidate and Party Delinquent Filers
Since the beginning of 2009, campaigns reported receiving 475 contributions greater than $5,000 totaling $9.3 million. A total of 54 of those contributions, amounting to $992,000, were reported after more than 48 hours. The most egregious violations came from committees reporting large hauls up to 3 months after the statutory deadline.
Late filing committees include 9 candidates, 2 party committees, and 20 others. Half of the violations, though, came from candidate and party committees.
Candidate violators include 4 state Republicans, 2 state Democrats, 1 St. Louis County Republican, and 2 St. Louis City Democrats.
The Republican violations—Rep. Ron Richard, Sen. Larry Wilson, Rep. Mike Parson, and Sen. Kevin Engler— account for 5 errors and $125,000. There was also one error from former Republican spokesman Rich Chrismer's St. Louis County Director of Elections committee.
The violations from Democratic officials include Gov. Jay Nixon and Rep. Michael Corcoran. Nixon had three errors, all reported in the complete submission for the first quarter of 2009, but still more than two months behind the statutory requirement. Corcoran's filing, in contrast, was just one day late.
Democrats elected to positions in St. Louis also reported errors including Mayor Francis Slay and Alderwoman Michelle Ingram Lawrence.
The Party committee violations are exclusive to Democrats and include 10 contributions reported late by either the Democratic State Committee or the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Other Committee Delinquent Filers
Half of the errors MPN identified were from a variety of Political Action Committees designed to bundle contributions for candidates, or for ballot initiatives. In all, 20 of these committees logged 27 violations so far this year. MPN will provide a more detailed analysis of these violations in the near future.
Problems with Early Filers
MPN’s analysis also identified a number of contributions reported to the Ethics Commission before they were apparently received. Many of these errors are likely data entry mistakes, such as the contribution to Life Sciences Fund reported on 1/15/2009 but apparently received on 1/15/2008, before the new finance law was even filed for consideration in the state legislature. The House Republican Campaign Committee also reported a contribution from Rep. Ron Richard (R) on 2/12/2009 that his campaign says was received on 2/12/2008. Former Rep. Same Page (D) and Rep. Mike Parson (R) reported similar mistakes.
By far the most entertaining error is a contribution reported a millennium in the future by the Citizens for Crime Reduction Committee. A contribution received from Kansas City-based Taxpayers Unlimited was reported from the year 3009. Let’s hope that’s a typo, otherwise someone has figured out how to manipulate democratic elections through time travel.
But there are also a number of contributions that the discrepancy in dates is less obvious. For instance the Lewis and Clark Regional Leadership Fund reported two separate contributions received one day after they were reported to the Ethics Commission. It could be the filer was a little confused on the date, but according to Missouri’s campaign finance laws these are technically violations since receipt of a contribution is required prior to reporting. Thus knowing a large contribution will be received in the future doesn’t trigger the reporting requirement in RSMo 130.044. (Note we didn’t actually include these contributions in our counts of violators).
These errors are the easiest to identify because they are logically and temporally inconsistent. The Ethics Commission could establish a simple data check when reports are submitted to minimize confusion and increase accurate transparency.
What the public can do
One potential solution for the public to this problem: file complaints with the Ethics Commission.
The panel of three Democrats and three Republicans has often been called “toothless” by Missouri politicos due to lax enforcement and orders akin to slaps on the wrist. Take for instance the 2008 violations of now Attorney General Chris Koster (D), where Koster and his staffers knowingly circumvented Missouri campaign finance law by funneling thousands through political committees back to his campaign’s war chest (documented first by MPN, then the AP and the Kansas City Star).
After dragging the case out for eight months from the time of the violation, the Ethics Commission ultimately dismissed the case because only three of the six members voted in favor; four votes are required for action to be taken. Further complicating that case was that Koster’s former co-worker, Michael Kilgore, was chairing the Ethics Commission at the time the complaints were being ushered through.
Will the Ethics Commission have the teeth to pursue the most influential politicians in the state, and perhaps even the Governor, for violations of state law? Don’t hold your breath, but that still doesn’t mean it isn’t worth a shot.
Related Links:
RSMo 130.044
Missouri Ethics Commission 48 Hour Reports
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Nixon approval falls to 44 percent in Nov. SurveyUSA poll
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Nixon's approval at 44 percent, a 6-point drop over the last month.
Last week, we offered some criticism of another polling firm which generally offers less statistically valid results, but it seems that poll, which showed Nixon's approval at 42 percent, was not far off.
What may be amiss in the new SurveyUSA poll is the proportion of Democrats included. Although the preceding eight approval surveys included approximately 40 percent Democrats, the current one included just 30 percent, a major change in the underlying survey population. This difference alone likely captures the bulk of the decrease in Nixon's approval, perhaps more than actual changes in approval.
Among Republicans, Nixon approval didn't show much movement, although the number of Republicans surveyed did marginally increase.
The Independent numbers may cause some alarm for Democrats in Missouri. The number of Independents greatly increased in the survey, but the approval for Nixon in this crucial voting bloc declined by 9-points (±7.3%).
There is one bright note for Nixon's team to compare to, at this same point 11 months into the Administration of Nixon's past political rival, former Gov. Matt Blunt (R), Blunt had just a 34 percent approval rating.
For Nixon, the current six month approval average is 52 percent. Blunt averaged just 35 percent over the same time period. So in a relative sense, Nixon does seem to be doing better than his predecessor.
The SurveyUSA poll surveyed 600 likely Missouri voters on Nov. 23 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
Related Links:
SurveyUSA Polling Data
Friday, November 27, 2009
Bill pre-filing to begin Dec. 1st
Pre-filing, which officially begins Dec. 1, offers legislators an opportunity to make their priorities known before the session begins, and perhaps even set the tone for the entire session.
In 2009, of the 1,983 bills and resolutions filed in the state legislature, 367 (19%) were pre-filed. Of those, 141 (7% of the total) were pre-filed on Dec. 1.
And pre-filed bills do turn out to be pretty significant. Of the 91 bills approved by the legislature in 2009, nearly one-quarter were filed before the session convened.
In the House, the first 25 bill numbers are typically reserved for appropriations bills, with the remaining numbers assigned based on the order in which bills are filed. In the Senate, members can typically select high priority bills for number assignments as the session opens.
The legislative session convenes on Jan. 6, 2010.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Who does your turkey support?
Your turkey may have a partisan flavor this year, because at least one poultry company is coming out with early investments for Missouri's 2010 election cycle.
Arkansas-based Tyson Foods, one of Forbes' 100 largest corporations in the U.S., donated $5,800 to three candidates, including $5,000 to Gov. Jay Nixon (D), $300 to State Sen. Rob Mayer (R), and $500 to State Rep. Billy Pat Wright (R).
Tyson also contributed to many of the same candidates in 2008, plus Attorney General Chris Koster (D) who received $1,350 last year. The contribution to Koster is especially noteworthy since as Attorney General, he is responsible for enforcing environmental statutes, and Tyson's environmental record in Missouri isn't exactly perfect.
Tyson operates several plants in the state, including one in Noel, Missouri recognized by the Bush Administration's Environmental Protection Agency several years ago for outstanding environmental performance. A few years before that, Tyson's Sedalia plant settled with the state for violations of the federal Clean Water Act. Even with a tarnished environmental record, one study estimates Tyson is responsible for 2,600 jobs in Pettis county alone.
If you're eating a Butterball, don't worry, your turkey isn't supporting any other turkeys. According to the Missouri Ethics Commission, Butterball made no political contributions to Missouri candidates this election cycle.
And regardless of what kind of turkey you're having, Happy Thanksgiving.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
McCaskill attends Obama Administration's first state dinner
Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) attended the Obama Administration's first official state dinner for the Prime Minister of India Tuesday night.
McCaskill, an outspoken supporter of Obama during the 2008 campaign, was one of just a handful of Congressman invited to the event, according to the official White House invitation list.
The Hill reported Tuesday afternoon on McCaskill's dilemma today about whether to become the first politician to Tweet during a state dinner.
"Trying to figure out if it's tacky to tweet from State dinner? What do you think? I think Mom would say yes,it's definitely tacky," McCaskill said in a Twitter message.
She opted to avoid doing so.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Senate District 24: Large contributions to Lamping far exceed Plocher's 3Q fundraising
Three Democrats and two Republicans are currently fundraising for primary contests in Missouri Senate District 24.
This open Democratic-leaning seat is being vacated by term-limited Sen. Joan Bray (D). When Bray was first elected in 2002, she won by only a 5 point margin. Given what some analysts are calling a growing anti-Democratic mood in Missouri, this seat will be one to watch closely if the mood swings to heavily favor Republican candidates.
Of the two Republicans in the contest, it's not exactly clear who the fundraising leader is because one of the candidates formed a fundraising committee after the close of the last fundraising period.
Republican Candidates
John Lamping (R) is a Senate candidate many Republicans are ecstatic about. Lamping has a background as a brokerage manager and hedge fund partner, and is the cousin of former St. Louis Cardinals president Mark Lamping.
And so far in the fourth quarter his fundraising power is evident. Lamping already pulled in two large contributions since forming a fundraising committee on Oct. 27. One of the contributions for $5,500 comes from State Sen. Kevin Engler (R). The other is $25,000 from Massachusetts-based venture capitalist Tom Roberts, who also happens to be the same Roberts Princeton University's new soccer stadium is named after.
Lamping will likely face St. Louis attorney Dean Plocher (R) in the Republican primary next year. Plocher reported just $7,744 in receipts during the last quarter and $1,405 in debt. At the end of the period, Plocher had just $5,643 cash-on-hand. Unless Plocher raised some serious cash in small increments during the past couple months, it's likely that the two large donations Lamping already received in the 4th quarter will trump his receipts.
One thing is certain, if Plocher is going to stay in this contest, he needs to show he's serious about fundraising and capable of raising the funds on the same level as Lamping.
Democratic Candidates -- click here for earlier analysis
Related Links:
Plocher Campaign Finance Reports
Plocher campaign website
Lamping campaign finance reports
Monday, November 23, 2009
St. Louis Rep arrested for bizarre 'robbery'
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke a story this morning about the arrest of State Rep. Don Calloway Jr. (D), from St. Louis County.
Calloway, who is currently serving his first-term in the state House, apparently grabbed a checkbook from officials at a Northeast fire district board meeting Sunday. Calloway reportedly took the checkbook only to determine which bank payments would be coming from to fund severance payments to two fire district officials.
Read the full Post-Dispatch coverage here.
SurveyUSA pegs Nixon approval rating at 50 percent
Both surveys are phone-based and neither provides a response rate, but that's where the similarities diverge.
What then explains the difference between these polls taken just two weeks apart?
For starters, SurveyUSA has a smaller sample size (n=600) and thus a larger margin of error than PPP (n=763). This generally means the results are less statistically precise for SurveyUSA.
Then there's the fact that SurveyUSA respondents are not necessarily likely Missouri voters, as is the case for PPP respondents.
And of course the elephant in the room is that SurveyUSA weights respondents' opinions to create a demographically-representative sample.
These differences make the surveys slightly incomparable. But on top of these factors are other inherent methodological differences that result in variation from accurate estimates. This variation was estimated by FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver for all political polling firms nationally. Both SurveyUSA and PPP ranked comparatively low, but there was a three-quarter-point difference in their estimates, with SurveyUSA being slightly more accurate.
So which poll is more trustworthy? Silver would likely back SurveyUSA which has had more reliable predictions nationally, especially since the two polling firms' estimates aren't even within each other's margin of error. Given that the geographic sampling from PPP doesn't quite jibe with where the majority of voters live, we're inclined to back the SurveyUSA numbers as more likely a description of the state of Missouri voters' opinions.
One thing is certain, Nixon's popularity isn't what it once was. Both polls show sizable declines between Jan. and Nov., and that's something you can believe.
PPP Respondents by Missouri Area Code
314............21%
417............21%
573............17%
636............15%
660............6%
816............20%
Related Links:
SurveyUSA Approval Ratings for Nixon
SurveyUSA Methodology
SurveyUSA Regional Definitions
Senate District 24: Page maintains extensive fundraising lead for Democratic primary
Three Democrats and two Republicans are currently fundraising for primary contests in Missouri Senate District 24.
The seat, open in 2010, is being vacated by term-limited Sen. Joan Bray (D). When Bray was first elected in 2002, she won by only a 5 point margin. Given what some analysts are calling a growing anti-Democratic mood in Missouri, this seat will be one to watch closely.
If fundraising is an adequate proxy in this senate district, former Lt. Gov. candidate Sam Page (D) is taking an early lead among his challengers with more than twice as much cash-on-hand and three times as much in receipts as the other Democratic candidates.
Former State Rep. and Lt. Gov. candidate Sam Page (D) hauled in $100,524 during the last fundraising quarter, and just 2 percent came from political committees. Of the itemized totals, 85 percent, or $79,530, came donors in Missouri. The majority of the funds (67%) were based in the St. Louis region. In all, Page had 171 itemized donors in Missouri during the quarter. Page reported raising $350,524 in total for the election cycle to-date and has $202,028 cash-on-hand.
Former State Rep. Barbara Fraser (D) reported raising $39,625 during the third fundraising quarter of 2009 bringing total fundraising for the election cycle up to $106,967. Of Fraser's itemized totals for the quarter, 97% of the total funds ($25,875) came from individuals within the state of Missouri through 85 separate contributions. Those contributions were concentrated almost exclusively in the St. Louis Region. At the end of the period Fraser reported $86,967 cash-on-hand.
Rep. Michael Corcoran (D-St. Ann) reported raising $42,273 so for this election, $7,626 of which came in during the fundraising quarter ending Sept. 30. Roughly one-third of Corcoran's contributions came from political committees, although the original filing with the Missouri Ethics Commission mislabeled these contributions. Of the non-political committee contributions amounting to $4,274, 75 percent came from 32 donors inside Missouri. At the end of the period, Corcoran's committee reported $17,695 cash-on-hand and $42,273 total receipts during the current election cycle.
Republican Candidates -- Part 2 coming soon...
Related Links:
Corcoran Campaign Finance Reports
Page Campaign Finance Reports
Fraser Campaign Finance Reports
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Nixon approval rate at 42 percent
Gov. Jay Nixon's approval rating sits at 42 percent, according to a recent poll conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).
Respondents who approve of Nixon include 36 percent of John McCain supporters in the 2008 election, 25 percent of self-described conservatives, and 23 percent of Republicans.
"It's been a pretty successful first year for the state's new Governor," PPP analysts said. "42 percent of voters approve of the job he's doing to 25 percent disapproving. In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers."
A total of 33 percent of voters had no opinion of Nixon, which is considerably high.
PPP surveyed 763 likely Missouri voters between Nov. 13 and 15. The margin of errors is +/-3.6 percent.
In Sept., SurveyUSA pegged Nixon's approval at 51 percent with a disapproval rating of 38 percent.
Related Links:
PPP Missouri Approvals
PPP Survey Results (PDF)
Ed Martin attacks wrong website in stimulus critique
Update: As of Nov. 23, Martin's campaign had updated its website to correct the mistake cited in this post.
Congressional candidate Ed Martin (R) is offering his own critique with one problem -- he's targeting the wrong website.
The statement on Martin's website says: "Statement on Recovery.org Scandal" (see screenshot). The official federal government website to track stimulus spending, however, is Recovery.gov. The .org website Martin referenced is run by Onvia, Inc.
Martin's press release goes on to state "that same web site shows that Carnahan and the Obama government spent $86 million dollars to 'create' only 73 jobs in Missouri - at a cost of more than a million dollars per job."
That much is true, although Martin omits some of the context.
First, recipients of federal stimulus jobs reported 73.7 jobs (which rounds up to 74 not 73) created or saved during the first 8 months of federal stimulus spending, through Sept. 30th. That figure also doesn't capture jobs created by state agencies, which are reported to Jefferson City zip codes instead of their respective locations throughout the state.
Second, just because funding was reported by recipients doesn't mean it was actually spent, or outlaid in budgetary jargon. Missouri recipients reported $2.3 billion in awards, but at of the close of the reporting period had spent only $0.4 billion.
In Missouri's 3rd Congressional district, where Martin is competing for the Republican nomination to challenge incumbent Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), recipients received $86.2 million but didn't spend it all by the time recipients were required to report, at least not yet.
We admit the data can be confusing, and that various websites out there have similar names, but it behooves candidates for public office to make an attempt to present accurate information. Martin failed to do so in this case just as fellow Congressional candidate Vicky Hartzler has done in her own critique.
Martin is facing Chris Sander (R) for the Republican Party's nomination next year in Congressional District 3. The winner of that contest will face off against Carnahan next Nov.
Related Links:
Recovery.gov (official website)
Recovery.org (private website)
Ed Martin Screenshots
Ed Martin Press Release
Friday, November 20, 2009
Missouri taxes generally regressive, study shows
That's according to a new report released this week by the Washington D.C.-based Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP).
Nationally the study found middle- and low-income families tend to pay higher shares of taxes than their wealthy counterparts. That regressive trend also holds for Missouri.
“The harsh reality is that most states require their poor and middle income
taxpayers to pay the most taxes as a share of income,” Matthew Gardner of ITEP said in a press release.
In Missouri, just one of six states to offer deductions for federal taxes paid, the wealthiest one percent of taxpayers pay an estimated 6.6 percent in taxes. The lowest 20 percent of taxpayers, however, pay 9.6 percent.
“Fairness is in the eye of the beholder.” noted Gardner. “But virtually anyone would agree that this upside-down approach to state and local taxes is astonishingly inequitable.”
ITEP is a think-tank that has focused on distributional tax issues since the 1980s.
Related Links:
ITEP's 'Who Pays' Study
ITEP's Missouri Fact Sheet
Thursday, November 19, 2009
State GOP candidates lead Dems in contributions greater than 5k in Nov.
Republican Party candidates in Missouri reported more contributions greater than $5,000 than their Democratic Party counterparts so far in Nov.
According to data from the Missouri Ethics Commission, GOP candidates and party committees received 10 contributions greater than or equal to $5,000, totaling $81,500. The Democratic Party, in contrast, has received just $25,002 in 4 contributions.
Contributions span all levels of races including statewide, state representatives and state senators.
Issue campaigns are also gearing up for the next election cycle. A total of 5 committees received 7 large contributions totaling $121,659. The committees include Citizens in Support of E-911, Missouri SOS Ballot, Our Children-Our Future-Our Decision, PAC of the Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, and Supporters of Health Research and Treatments.
Of those committees, just one -- Missouri SOS Ballot -- received the large contribution from outside Missouri. On Nov. 17, that committee received $30,000 from Las Vegas-based Save Our Secret Ballot, Inc.
Related Links:
Ethics Commission Contributions > $5,000
Hartzler misses forest in critique of stimulus job creation
Congressional candidate Vicky Hartzler (R) showed a level of ignorance Thursday with comments criticizing federal stimulus jobs reporting.
Hartzler issued a press release that hops on a conservative bandwagon aimed at criticizing reported job estimates in misidentified congressional districts. Hartzler immediately jumps to the conclusion that government can't do anything right.
"What this tells us above all is that it's time to change from the failed policies of big spending, borrowing and debt favored by Rep. Skelton," Hartzler said in the press release.
But the jobs Hartzler referenced are also geocoded by zip code, for which no broad errors have been identified. Apparently people can identify where they work, which is more than can be said for identifying their political representatives.
More importantly, the misidentification of congressional districts is a problem with recipients reporting data, not with the federal bureaucracy overseeing reporting.
Sec. 1512 of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (P.L. 111-5) requires recipients of federal stimulus funds to report data quarterly to federal agencies. According to the White House Recovery Board, recipients are ultimately responsible for the data, not federal agencies. Although federal agencies scoured through the data to identify mistakes prior to its public release, even the White House acknowledged minor errors would remain.
Does that mean taxpayer funds were flagrantly wasted? Not at all, says Vice President Joe Biden (D).
"Every single solitary penny that got sent out there to a state, a construction company, a nonprofit had to be accounted for," Biden told Daily Show host Jon Stewart earlier this week. "And it all got put on Recovery.gov. What happened was, out of 130,000 people reporting in what they did with the money...There was bad civics classes for those [who misreported districts.] They had to fill out a form, what district are you in, and there was no such district."
So what does it mean that recipients are misidentifying congressional districts? It does not mean the jobs are fake or the reports are inherently flawed, but it does show a level of political ignorance among Americans. And with Congress' approval rating of 27 percent, it's no wonder Americans are tuning out what's happening in Congress.
Perhaps that's the same ignorance Hartzler and others have expressed in misidentifying the owners of the data being criticized.
As for Hartzler's perpetuation of the notion that jobs are being misreported, we say show us. There would be nothing better for our readership than some hard proof of government waste. Show us the cases where folks misidentified their city.
Yes Congressional districts might be off a bit here and there, but where's the meat to show government waste? Where is the example of 50 jobs created in a zip code with 10 people?
So far, we haven't found problems of significant note either.
Our advice to Hartzler: move away from the talking points that lead you to focus on the trees instead of the forest. There are much bigger problems to talk about in the 2010 campaign. For starters, perhaps you could focus on reducing voters' ignorance.
And for the record, the mistakes on jobs reporting go both ways. A number of projects have been identified where recipients discussed new jobs in the summaries but didn't add the totals in the jobs created field.
According to Government Executive's analysis: "Repeatedly, recipients of grants and contracts discussed jobs created or saved in the narrative column but failed to include them in the total."
Hartlzer is campaigning for the Republican nomination in Missouri's 4th Congressional District (not to be confused with the nonexistent 14th district). Three other Republicans are also vying for the nomination. The winner of the primary will face 16-term Congressman Ike Skelton (D).
Related Links:
Hartzler's Press Release (PDF)
Recovery.gov
Blunt and Carnahan in statistical dead heat
Congressman Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) are in a statistical dead heat for the 2010 Missouri Senate race, according to a new poll released this week.
The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, shows that in a race between Blunt and Carnahan, it's Carnahan that leads by 1 percentage point. In other words, both candidates are within the statistical margin of error, 3.6%. However, 15% of voters haven't decided yet which candidate they will vote for.
The results showed 40% of the 763 likely Missouri voters had a favorable view of Carnahan, but just 30% had a favorable view of Blunt. That same question was even more revealing for one of Blunt's primary opponents, Chuck Purgason, where 79% of respondents weren't sure whether they had a favorable opinion or not. Purgason, who obviously isn't well known across the state, has had a tough time getting his campaign off the ground.
The survey's crosstabs reveal some truly interesting tidbits. For instance, Blunt picks up 5% of Barack Obama's supporters, but Carnahan picks up 10% of respondents who voted for John McCain in 2008. But independent voters are making an early swing to Blunt (44%) as opposed to Carnahan (32%), with 24% of independents undecided.
Missouri respondents also reported low approval for Obama, at 43 percent. That approval included the majority of liberals (83%) and moderates (57%) but few conservatives (14%). Statistical margins of error were not provided for sub-components of the survey.
The low approval of the president may have lingering effects on the Senate race next year, when Republicans are expected to generally have favorable electoral outcomes. If moderates and independent undecided voters swing toward Blunt, the race is over for Carnahan.
"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," Dean Debnam of PPP said. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."
PPP's pollsters also identified the race was already defined rigidly on partisan lines, no suprise to close watchers of the race.
Despite the presentation in the poll, Blunt must first win the Republican primary next summer before becoming the official nominee. Currently two other candidates--Purgason and Mark Memoly--are registered with the Federal Elections Commission to raise funds for the race.
The PPP poll was conducted between Nov. 13 and 15.
Related Links:
PPP Poll Results
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Smith successor sworn into state senate
Just one day after his predecessor was sentenced to federal prison, State Sen. Joe Keaveny (D) was sworn in to represent Missouri's 4th Senatorial District.
53-year-old Keaveny had the oath of office administered by Supreme Court Judge Michael Wolff.
Keaveny, a longtime banking official, was elected in a special election on Nov. 3rd. and will serve the remainder of former state Sen. Jeff Smith's (D) current term, which ends on Jan. 5, 2011.
Smith plead guilty to federal conspiracy charges earlier this year and was sentenced to federal prison yesterday.
Related Links:
Missouri Senate Press Release
Baker tapped as regional HHS director
Federal Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius (D) appointed former state Rep. Judy Baker (D) as a regional director yesterday.
Baker will represent HHS Region VII which covers the states of Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. Baker's responsibilities will include coordinating federal health policy with state and local entities.
"HHS welcomes...Judy...and we look forward to working with [her] to achieve HHS' mission to protect the health of all Americans and provide essential human services," Secretary Sebelius said in a press release. "Their individual experience and knowledge of our department's most important issues, as well as local understanding of the people and institutions in their respective Regions make them a welcome addition to HHS."
Baker previously represented the 25th House District, which includes part of Columbia. She is currently a partner at Cura Advantage, a consulting firm that focuses on health care system improvements.
Related Links:
HHS Press Release
Nixon proposes tuition freeze for second consecutive year
Missouri college students won't have to pay more for tuition next year thanks to a plan announced by Gov. Jay Nixon on Tuesday.
Under Nixon's proposal, state colleges and universities that agree not to raise tuition will receive only a 5.2 percent reduction for the next fiscal year. Schools this year agreed to do the same and in exchange received stable funding.
"To turn this economy around, Missourians must be trained, educated and ready to work, and that's why it was vital that we kept tuition flat for Missouri families," Nixon said in a prepared statement. "As tuition skyrockets by double digits in other states, university leaders, faculty members and my administration have worked together to put Missouri students first and protect them from tuition spikes for the second year in a row. By helping keep higher education affordable, we are taking bold steps to prepare the workforce that will move Missouri forward."
Total higher education funding will be reduced by $42 million, according to estimates provided by the Governor's office. The plan will require approval of the state legislature and each education institutions' governing board.
The freezes of tuition increases for two consecutive years show Nixon's commitment to Missouri students. The freezes follow average annual tuition increases of 7.5 percent over the past decade.
"The governor's action today strikes the best balance in a difficult and fiscally challenging time for our state," University of Missouri President Forsee said in a press release. "This agreement mitigates the magnitude of the cut that higher education would otherwise have received and enables us to hold undergraduate tuition flat for one more year."
Related Links
Governor's Press Release
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
More Missourians going hungry, increase in insecurity alarming
The Show Me State reported a 14 percent rate of food insecurity, which represents 340,000 households in the state. Missouri's rate is the highest among adjacent states and well above the national average of 12.2 percent.
Compared to the 1996-98 average, Missouri's food insecurity rate jumped by 3.9 percentage points, the largest increase of any state. Even more alarming is that the increase was in fact statistically significant at a 90 percent confidence level (t > 1.645).
The results also worsened nationally compared to one year ago. According to USDA's report:
In 2008, 85.4 percent of U.S. households were food secure throughout the year. Food-secure households had consistent access to enough food for active healthy lives for all household members at all times during the year. The remaining 14.6 percent (17 million households) were food insecure. These households, at some time during the year, had difficulty providing enough food for all their members due to a lack of resources. The prevalence of food insecurity was up from 11.1 percent (13 million households) in 2007 and was the highest observed since nationally representative food security surveys were initiated in 1995.
The results show households most likely to face food insecurity are headed by a single parent. Surprisingly, there is little distinction between rural and metropolitan areas. Thus this is an issue that spans geographically to areas often generalized in the political spectrum.
The report is compiled by USDA's Economic Research Service in coordination with the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.
Related Links:
USDA Food Insecurity Report 2008
Two former state Democratic lawmakers sentenced for felonies
Two former state Democratic lawmakers were sentenced today after pleading guilty to federal conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges back in Sept.
The charges stem from a cover-up in former State Sen. Jeff Smith's (D) 2004 congressional campaign against Congressman Russ Carnahan (D). Smith coordinated a negative attack ad campaign against Carnahan with a political committee, then lied to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) about his involvement.
Smith was sentenced to 366 days in federal prison on two separate charges while former state Rep. Steve Brown (D), who worked on Smith's campaign, received two years of probation due to his cooperation with federal investigators.
“Our justice system doesn’t work very well when people interfere with it,” U.S. District Judge Carol Jackson reportedly told Smith during sentencing.
Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster (D) even went to bat for Smith, submitting a letter to Jackson requesting a lessened sentence for Smith. Smith was one of three Democratic state senators who endorsed Koster's campaign during the Democratic primary in 2008.
Hartzler plans campaign announcement tour this weekend
Former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) announced twice today that she will officially announce her congressional campaign this weekend.
The first email sent out by the Hartzler campaign didn't include the list of stops on the tour. The campaign noted the mistake with a follow-up message to supporters two hours later.
As a point of irony, the 22-stop tour begins in the city of Peculiar where Hartzler is surely counting on the town slogan--"where the odds are with you"--to help her campaign.
Hartlzer is one of four Republicans currently registered with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to raise funds in Missouri's 4th Congressional District. The others include Bill Stouffer, Brian Riley, and Jim Scholz. The winner of the Republican primary will face moderate Congressman Ike Skelton (D) who has represented the district for 32 years.
Here's the full list of stops planned by the Hartzler campaign:
Friday, November 20
8:00 AM Branaman Cabinets, 22701 S Peculiar Dr, Peculiar
9:15 AM Gazebo by the Courthouse, 100 W Franklin, Clinton
10:15 AM Landmark Restaurant, 301 S Main, Lowry City
11:15 AM Senior Center, 102 W Tilden, Humansville
12:30 PM Crossline Center, 120 N Main, El Dorado Springs
2:00 PM Brown Rentals, Hwy 60 and Hwy 39, Greenfield
3:15 PM Blue Top Restaurant, 57 SE 1st St, Lamar
4:15 PM Morefew Community Room, 901 S. Adams, Nevada
5:15 PM Corner Hardware, 107 W Ohio, Butler
7:15 PM Embree Electric, 111 N State Fair Blvd, Sedalia
8:30 PM Cadle McGrew Chevrolet, 701 N Monroe, Versailles
9:30 PM Worship Center, 511C South Oak, California
Saturday, November 21
8:00 AM Dunn Bros Coffee, 3218 W Edgewood Dr #1300, Jefferson City
9:30 AM Lake Area Clinic, 948 E Hwy 54, Camdenton
10:45 AM Dairy Queen, 912 S Ash St, Buffalo
12:00 PM Ziggie's Café, 1321 Spur Dr, Marshfield
1:30 PM Dr. Benny Thomas' office, 215 North St, Waynesville
2:30 PM Radio Shack, 430 S Jefferson Ave, Lebanon
4:15 PM Tator’s Family Restaurant, Hwy 54 and 254, Hermitage
5:30 PM Rick's Lincoln Inn, N Hwy 65, Lincoln
7:30 PM City Centre Suites, 123 E. Gay, Warrensburg
8:45 PM Broadway Grill, 111 SW 12th St, Oak Grove
Missouri unemployment plateaus as national rate continues to climb
In Missouri, the unemployment rate last month declined to 9.3 percent, down two-tenths of one point from Sept.
The Missouri Dept. of Economic Development released the new figures Monday, ahead of the full release of all states by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday.
“The October unemployment percentages suggest that Missouri’s job market continues to stabilize while demonstrating what independent economic sources have already been reporting about the health of our state’s economy,” Gov. Jay Nixon said in a prepared statement. “We are encouraged by these improving indicators and determined to move forward in creating good-paying jobs and continuing to work to secure investment in Missouri.”
Total employment also increased by 4,000 last month, with sizable gains in manufacturing and private educational and health services sectors.
Related Links:
DED Press Release
Monday, November 16, 2009
Missouri pays out $1.26 billion in federal stimulus funds to date
The state of Missouri has paid out a total of $1.26 billion in federal stimulus funds since the beginning of 2009, according to state data.
The largest chunk of that funding passed through the Dept. of Labor and Industrial Relations, which has outlaid 37 percent of the state total. In all, that Dept. paid out $460 million in unemployment benefits since January paid for elusively by the federal stimulus funds.
The Dept. of Revenue paid out 22 percent, mostly in tax refunds and other stabilizations for counties.
The Dept. of Higher Education and Dept of Elementary and Secondary Education also paid out 22 percent of the state's total to-date outlays. Education funding spans from free school lunches for low income students to vocational rehabilitation and adult workforce education programs.
The remaining 19 percent of spent funds is spread among 13 other state agencies.
The state has received $1.6 billion in funds to date from the federal government since President Obama signed the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act. Missouri currently has $363 million on-hand to spend.
According to Recovery.gov, Missouri will receive an additional $1.2 billion in payments from the federal government in the future, money that has been allocated but not yet transferred from federal to state agencies.
In addition, numerous individuals have received contracts directly from federal agencies not included in these totals.
Related Links:
Map Your Taxes Stimulus Tracking
Recovery.gov
Koster allows environmental law blog to become obsolete
Environmentalists expressed concerns in 2008 about then candidate Chris Koster's (D) environmental record. Now, there may be cause for concerns to resurface.
At the center of the 2008 debate was Koster's stance on controlled animal feeding operations (CAFOs), which Koster says pose no risk to human health. Environmental groups obviously disagree.
Now that Koster is the state's attorney general there may be yet another sign of his lackluster defense of the environment: the Attorney General's Environmental Law Blog, begun under his predecessor's tenure, is now defunct.
The law blog began operating in April 2008 and saw its last post on April 29, 2009, four months after Koster was sworn in.
The blog previously covered topics ranging from federal stimulus funds for the Leaking Underground Storage Tank cleanup program to announcing EPA actions in Missouri.
MPN's review of press releases issued by Koster since the beginning of Sept. further suggests environmental defense may not be a priority under Koster's leadership. Just 2 of the 24 releases in the past two-and-one-half months acknowledge investigations or cases involving violations of state and federal environmental protection laws -- and both were for federal Clean Water Act violations unearthed by state Dept. of Natural Resources investigators.
The majority of the press releases issued by Koster's office focus on consumer issues such as telemarketers and consumer fraud.
Koster announced John "Jack" McManus as the chief counsel for the Agriculture and Environment Division of the Attorney General's office earlier this year. McManus previously served as an Assistant State Attorney General.
Related Links:
AGO Environmental Law Blog
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Feeling under the weather? Chances of catching flu decrease in Missouri
Google scholars developed a model that links flu queries from their search engine to actual influenza incidence rates.
In Missouri, and nationally, Google predicts flu symptoms peaked in mid-Oct. and are on the decline, at least for now.
The Oct. spike was reportedly due mostly to the outbreak of H1N1 -- and that's why there were lower intensities reported in Florida where the high number of retirees weren't impacted as much, since H1N1 targets the younger crowd.
Another spike may be reported at the beginning of 2010, similar to 2008 when flu intensity peaked in Feb.
So how accurate is Google's model? The results of a study Google's researchers published in Nature shows the results very closely align with actual data collected by the Centers for Disease Control (R^2>0.9).
Related Links:
Google FluTrends
FluTrend Method in Nature
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Democrats hammer Hoskins for payment of back taxes
One Republican state representative in a targeted Missouri House district is learning the consequences of not paying taxes, and definitely the hard way.
Rep. Denny Hoskins (R-121) announced earlier this week he owed nearly $20,000 to the Johnson County collector in back taxes for a business he co-owns. On Thursday, Hoskins declared he had paid the amount in full. That was after issuing a statement saying he was on a payment plan.
The House Democratic Campaign Committee issued a statement Friday morning condemning Hoskins' conflicting statements that he didn't have the funds to pay off the taxes and fees and that he was on an allegedly non-existent payment plan with the county. Here's the Democrats' statement:
The $20,000 Question: Questions Surround Hoskins Payment
After being caught red handed Hoskins Couldn’t Give a Deadline, Less Than 24 Hours Later He Cuts a $20,000 Check?
Jefferson City, MO—According to media reports, yesterday just before the collector’s office closed, State Rep. Denny Hoskins turned in a $20,317.89 check, less than 24 hours after being caught delinquent on his taxes. In a statement after being caught red handed Hoskins stated he didn’t have the money “due to the recession” and stated he was on a “tax installment plan” that never actually existed and is not available for delinquent amounts owed under Johnson County statute.
Today questions surround Representative Hoskins, who until yesterday refused to pay over $20,000 in taxes he was legally required to pay 11 months earlier.
“Yesterday morning Hoskins didn’t have enough money to pay a delinquent $500 invoice let alone the other $20,000 he owed; even going so far as to claim he was on a fake “tax installment plan” that isn’t even allowed by law. However by yesterday afternoon, he’s cutting a $20,000 check? Where did the money come from? Who did he get it from and were special favors requested in the terms of this loan?” asked Chris Moreno, Executive Director of the Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.
According to documents verified by media outlets, Denny Hoskins was given 5 separate invoices he was delinquent on since Dec. 31, 2008. Those invoices ranged from $500 to $9,637, all of which Hoskins knew about and stated he could not pay 24 hours ago. Instead, Hoskins tried to hide that he was on a “tax installment plan” when Johnson County doesn’t permit such plans for delinquent taxes. However, according to the Collector’s office, Hoskins could have paid any of those invoices in full, but chose not to.
“If he had it all along, why did he shortchange Johnson County for an entire year? Hoskins is on record being extremely dishonest throughout this process. The citizens deserve to finally have honest answers to these questions,” said Moreno.
###
Friday, November 13, 2009
Lawmaker pays off $20,000 in back taxes
A central Missouri lawmaker who said he owed the government $20,000, through a company he owns with his brother, has paid the amount in full.
First-term Rep. Denny Hoskins (R-121) told the Warrensburg Daily Star Journal this that he owed nearly $16,100 in back taxes and $4,200 in penalties. As of Thrusday evening, the full balance of the debt was paid off.
Hoskins' 6-year-old business, Hos Properties LLC, is registered in the Secretary of State's office with Brian Hoskins as the agent.
"It's not something my brother and I are proud of, but our rental property business is struggling just like other...businesses," Hoskins told the Star Journal of the debt. "[W]hen our tenants are struggling to pay their rent due to the economic recession, we struggle to pay our mortgage payment and property taxes."
Hoskins' Democratic challenger in the district, Cortney Cole, told local press she paid her taxes.
"Of course I did," Cole said, according to Warrensburg media reports.
The House Democratic Campaign Committee chimed in Thursday with a critique of Hoskins.
"Hoskins claims that as a CPA, he will protect tax dollars, all while failing to pay his own taxes. So not only is he not paying his taxes but he is lying about protecting yours. That's pretty bad," House Democratic Campaign Committee executive director Chris Moreno said.
Hoskins announced Thursday evening that the balance was paid in full. The payment was confirmed by The Kansas City Star with the Johnson County collector's office.
Related Links:
Hos Properties LLC Registration
Daily Star Journal Story
Thursday, November 12, 2009
House District 110: Three Democrats establish fundraising committees, including current Rep's son
The race to replace term-limited Rep. Belinda Harris (D) in House District 110 so far includes three Democrats, including Harris' son.
So whether Democrats are able to hold the seat in 2010 will depend on the viability and credentials of the Democratic nominee.
The Missouri Ethics Commissions shows three Democrats with reports filed from the most recent fundraising period, all with the 2010 race on their mind.
The Democratic candidates include Belinda Harris' son, Ben Harris, Jefferson County Commissioner Ed Kemp, and Franklin County building inspector Joe Detter.
Campaign Finance Reports
None of the campaigns had particularly strong fundraising support to report at the close of the last quarter.
Kemp didn't actually report any receipts during the period, but did have the greatest disbursements totaling $3,184. At the end of the period Kemp reported $3,863 cash-on-hand and no debt.
The third candidate, Detter, reported $550 in receipts including one itemized contribution and an unreported number of other donations. At the end of the fundraising quarter Detter had $333 cash-on-hand and no debt.
District History
In the last two election cycles, Republicans didn't even field a candidate in this district, following a significant loss in 2004 and a sizeable margin of 11-points in Belinda Harris' first election in 2002, after she won a four-way primary.
Before Belinda Harris was elected, the district was represented by Francis Overschmidt (D), who was first elected in 1992.
This will be a race to watch as primary season heats up early next year. Presumably Republicans will field a strong candidate here, although none have yet filed paperwork with the Ethics Commission. For a year that's not likely to be generous to Democrats, this will also be a race to watch in the general election.
Related Links:
Ben Harris Campaign Finance Reports
Detter Campaign Finance Reports
Kemp Campaign Finance Reports
Year-to-date casino revenues down, tax receipts up
Tying eduction funding to gambling is a gamble of sorts, especially during times of economic turmoil. However, despite declining casino revenues, taxes are up for the 2010 fiscal year.
According to the latest report from the state Gaming Commission, casino revenues and patrons are all down compared to the same point in the last fiscal year.
In the first four months of the 2010 fiscal year, casinos had 8.2 million patrons, an 8 percent decline from 2009.
In terms of year-to-date gross revenues, Missouri casinos reported $555 million so far in FY 2010, a decline of $30 million, or 5 percent, from this point in FY 2009
In most industries, when base industries decline so too do receipts. In this case, however, receipts are actually up. So far casinos collected $35.8 million in admissions fees and paid $122.7 million in gaming taxes. In all, gaming tax receipts are up 10.6 percent, or $11 million. Admission fees are up just 3 percent, or $1 million.
90 percent of the state gaming tax goes to fund state education programs; the other 10 percent benefits activities in home dock jurisdictions. The admissions fees are split equally between the State Gaming Commission Fund and home dock jurisdictions.
Related Links:
Missouri Gaming Commission Monthly Financial Reports
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Gas sales show signs of travel recovery
In Missouri, gasoline sales dropped by 4 percent in 2008 compared to one year earlier. While the percent may not initially seem large, it represents a loss of 157 million gallons of taxable gasoline.
To be clear, the loss in 2008 was a sign that Missourians traveled less than the preceding year, which cost firms beyond retail gas stations money and resulted in a loss of state revenue (those state revenues, by the way, are largely earmarked for highway construction).
Year-to-date, sales are down another 35 million gallons in 2009. But the trend is showing positive signs of recovery.
Sales tend to peak annually in June and September. In June 2009, peak sales were down, but followed in July but a sizable surge above the proportion of typical monthly sales.
In Sept., sales were only slightly below the pre-2008 average. In fact, the three month period from Jul. to Sept. saw year-over-year increases in sales.
At this point last year, just one month had year-over-year increases in sales. So far this year, four months are up.
We won't go as far as to say gas sales can accurately predict changes in other economic indicators, especially since the correlation between sales and employment is relatively low (r=0.13). But the trends are promising that recovery is on its way. As more people travel in the state, benefits are accrued not only by the retail gas sector, but also fast food firms, hotels, and other travel-related firms.
Related Links:
DOR Gasoline Sales Report
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Politico says Blunt faces uphill battle against Carnahan
Politico is calling Missouri's 2010 Senate race one of the top 10 to watch in the country. According to Politico's analysis today:
The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond offers Democrats one of their strongest pickup targets, as Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is almost certainly the strongest Democratic recruit of the cycle. Carnahan — the daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — has already taken in more than $3 million for the contest. Rep. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP whip, avoided a tough primary against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, but he still faces an uphill general election battle.
FiveThirtyEight.com, written by sports statistician turned political analyst Nate Silver, lists Missouri as the number two race to watch. Per Nate's analysis:
Rasmussen has the race tied which is not bad news for Robin Carnahan considering that they've generally had pessimistic numbers for Democrats in this cycle. Not sure that Roy Blunt says "change" in what might be a fairly anti-establishment election. Then again, neither does Carnahan -- but you'd rather be a credible state-level official in this election than a member of Congress.
Related Links:
Politico Analysis
FiveThirtyEight.com Analysis
House District 121: Cole outraises Hoskins in last quarter
Because just 122 votes separated the candidates in 2008, this is yet another race to closely watch in 2010.
Hoskins will be facing off for the chance to return to Jefferson City for a second term. Jackson, who ran for the seat several times before, has clearly indicated he's backing a political neophyte to replace him on the ballot. The newcomer to the race is Courtney Cole (D), a Warrensburg school teacher.
Cole is already proving a formidable candidate, outraising Hoskins in the last fundraising quarter.
District 121 Campaign Finances
Over the last quarter Hoskins reported receipts of $13,673. Of the itemized receipts, 57 percent came from an assortment of political committees including a $5,000 contribution from the political arm of the Missouri Society of Certified Public Accountants. Hoskins received 40 percent of the total itemized funds from individuals in Missouri through 27 individual donations, largely concentrated in the Kansas City region.Hoskins reported total receipts for the election cycle of $16,723, $2,874 in debt, and $14,407 cash-on-hand.
Hoskins' likely challenger, Cole, formed a campaign fundraising committee one month into the last quarter. And that's why her fundraising totals are really surprising. Cole reported receipts of $16,045 during the quarter. While 32 percent of the total funds originated with political committees, the remaining funds came from 133 itemized contributions.
Cole has already picked up support from former candidate Jackson, Rep. Mike Talboy, Rep. Mary Still, and the Johnson County Central Democratic Committee. Countless other contributors are linked to the University of Central Missouri, where Cole's husband is a communications professor.
Cole's committee reported no debt and $2,503 in expenditures during the period.In total, Cole reported $2,300 more in receipts for the period than Hoskins, not including newly incurred debt. This fundraising report is certain to invigorate the Hoskins campaign, which may have thought re-election was guaranteed. In the bellweather state of Missouri, nothing is certain -- especially in this district.
Historically the District has jumped between Democratic and Republican control. Prior to former Rep. David Pearce's (R) election in 2002 the district was represented for 10 years by former Rep. Deleta Williams (D).
For 2010, this is a race to watch.
Related Links:
Hoskins Campaign Website
Hoskins Campaign Finance Reports
Cole Campaign Website
Cole Campaign Finance Reports
Monday, November 9, 2009
Video: Bond promotes 'The Next Front' with Jon Stewart
U.S. Sen. Kit Bond (R) is leaving the Senate in 2010, and like so many other retiring politicians these days, he wrote a book.
Bond's book, The Next Front, identifies southeast Asia as the next front in the war on terrorism. On Monday night Bond light-heartedly discussed the book on Jon Stewart's "Daily Show."
The discussion moved to several other issues, including healthcare.
Here are the clips:
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Exclusive - Kit Bond Extended Interview Pt. 1 | ||||
| ||||
Part 2
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Exclusive - Kit Bond Extended Interview Pt. 2 | ||||
| ||||
Dips in state employment show signs of steady improvement
Missouri lost 86,000 jobs over the last 6 quarters, and, yes, that's a lot by anyone's standard.
Total cumulative losses during the current recession already exceed those from the downturn at the beginning of the decade. That recession in 2000 resulted in a 13 quarter trough in Missouri employment, during which 73,000 jobs were lost.
But here's some good news: the current declines do not look like they will go on for as long as the last recession. That's because the kurtosis of the distribution is greater.
So what is kurtosis? In it's Greek origin, the term means "bulging", and in statistics it refers to the peakedness of a distribution.
Compare that to today: after just 4 quarters employment losses peaked at 34,000 and are quickly declining, indicating we may expect to see short tails on the distribution. That was certainly the case, at least, for the time between first job losses and the distributional peak in the first quarter of 2009.
MPN's employment projections, based on current economic conditions, are that Missouri can expect steadily slowing rates of job losses through the next three quarters. After the second quarter of next year, job losses should be negligible. Job reports for a few months may intermittently reveal good news, but the best news would be consistently improving trends rather than sporadic improvement that politicians will likely herald as an end to the recession.
Some economists, like Creighton University's Ernie Goss, predict the unemployment rate will increase further in Missouri during the last quarter of 2009. It may. But that's also not necessarily bad news. The unemployment rate is a measure of those in the labor force actively seeking employment. In other words, an increase in unemployment that corresponds with declining job losses means job seekers are optimistic that jobs are available.
Unfortunately the measure doesn't denote underutilization of workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates Missouri's total underutilization rate average from the last quarter of 2008 through the third quarter of 2009 is 14.5 percent, just below the national average of 15.2 percent.
The underutilization rate will be a number to track closely in coming quarters, because if the number of discouraged workers increases, changes in the unemployment rate will be largely capturing this effect. In other words, if the unemployment rate seems to good to be true six months from now, it probably is -- even if the governor's office says otherwise.
Related Links:
BLS Employment Underutilization Rates
Sunday, November 8, 2009
U.S. House passes healthcare overhaul by 220-215 vote
After months of partisan bickering and fiery town halls, and hours after President Obama exhorted lawmakers to approve a healthcare overhaul, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed landmark healthcare reform legislation by a 220 to 215 vote late Saturday night.
Democrats say the legislation will expand health coverage to millions otherwise unable to get assistance, while also placing restrictions on the insurance industry.
39 conservative Democrats joined nearly all Republicans in opposing the measure. From Missouri, Congressman Ike Skelton (D-4) was among the conservative Democrat coalition not in favor of the legislation.
“At the end of the day, the American people should be able to look at this bill and say that Congress has done a good job,” Skelton said in a statement last week announcing he would not support the bill. “This legislation does not accomplish that goal...it does not represent the right balance for the people I represent and I do not intend to support it.”
Skelton faces serious opposition in 2010 from former State Rep. Vicky Hartlzer (R), who managed to criticize Skelton even for opposing the bill.
"House passed [government] takeover of health care last p.m.," Hartlzer said today via Twitter. "The 4th can stop [Nancy Pelosi] by electing a Republican 2010."
What Hartzler failed to acknowledge, however, was that Skelton did not vote for the bill, thus electing a Republican in the 4th would not have made a difference in the final vote.
The rest of the Missouri delegation was split along party lines, with the three House Democrats supporting the bill and five Republicans opposing.
Related Links:
Washington Post Vote Database for Roll Call #887
Health Care Bill text from Library of Congress
House District 17: Contributions add up for rematch between Schneider and Biermann
In 2008, Rep. Kenny Biermann (D) defeated three-term incumbent Vicki Schneider (R) by just 73 votes. That was just a slightly larger margin than by what Schneider won her first term by in 2002, which was a margin of 65 votes against Aaron Staebell (D).
Both Biermann and Schneider are already raising funds for the race, according to quarterly reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission, and Biermann maintains a lead in total contributions and cash-on-hand.
Schneider, on the other hand, had just $6,600 in receipts over the past quarter, bringing total receipts this election cycle to $73,50 and leaving $7,400 cash-on-hand.
This is certain to be a close race in 2010, but the early fundraising results show Democrats are serious about maintaining control.
Related Links:
Biermann Campaign Finance Reports
Schneider Campaign Finance Reports
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Carnahan to release new Blue Book this week
On Tuesday Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's (D) office will unveil Missouri's 2009-2010 Official Manual, known more commonly as the Blue Book.
Carnahan also announced last her office has made old Blue Books available online, and ultimately plans to make nearly the full collection of some 40 books printed since 1889 available through the internet.
“The Blue Book stands out from similar publications in other states in the amount of information it provides and in the level of access it gives our citizens,” Carnahan said in a press release. “I'm pleased to provide Missourians with another resource to research the history of our state as we prepare to release the 2009-2010 edition of the Official Manual.”
The state spends about $500,000 every two years to print the books, a practice that has come under fire among state lawmakers. Despite the criticisms, lawmakers continue to fund the printing under a separate line item in the budget and have not seriously considered repealing a state law that requires every lawmaker to receive between 100 and 200 printed copies.
State Sen. Kevin Engler (R), the Senate majority floor leader, says that especially with increased internet usage, ceasing printing would not inhibit the public's access to information on government. In 2008 he filed legislation to change the practice (see S.B. 908 from 2008).
“It is ridiculous that we spend a half a million dollars on these advertisements for elected officials while the governor cuts healthcare and lays off workers,” Engler said in a press release. “All of this information is either available or can be made available online. We should not be spending this much money on them, especially in these tough economic times.”
Engler is reportedly declining to receive printed copies of the Blue Book, technically speaking a violation of state law, a law Rep. Mark Parkinson (R) tried to change in 2009 with H.B. 1009. The bill would have replaced printing of Blue Books with compact disc distribution, unless recipients paid for a printed copy up front. The bill was estimated to save $384,000 annually. Parkinson's bill advanced through committee but never made it to a floor vote in 2009. Parkinson indicated he intends to re-file the legislation for the 2010 legislative session.
A contingent of Democrats filed legislation in 2008, as H.B. 2305, that would have reduced the printing schedule to once every 4 years.
Related Links:
Carnahan Press Release
Engler Press Release
Recent Blue Books
Historical Blue Books
Friday, November 6, 2009
KC Star Editorial: contribution limits 'must be reinstituted'
Recently the state of Illinois approved campaign contribution limits, two years after Missouri did away with them.
But now there's growing talk of returning to some level of limits in Missouri after allegations of some Missouri officials offering favors to donors.
On Thursday, The Kansas City Star's editorial board chimed in to call for reinstated campaign contribution limits.
"Missouri moved into dangerous territory by lifting caps on donations," the editorial board writes. "Big donors bring big expectations. Why put taxpayers at risk of favors going to deep-pocket contributors? Or put politicians at risk of appearing to favor those donors? Reasonable caps on individual donors must be reinstituted to avoid even the appearance of benefits flowing to the highest bidder."
Read the full Kansas City Star editorial here.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Majority of Missourians find global warming a 'serious threat', survey says
The majority of Missourians identified global warming as a serious threat, according to a survey released today by the Pew Environment Group.
A total of 61 percent of the 600 likely Missouri voters surveyed indicated global warming is a serious threat, while just 17 percent said it's not a problem at all.
When it comes to whether government should take action to reduce carbon emissions, the margin increases even more, with 68 percent favoring action and 21 percent opposing. Among those that favor action, 52 percent of respondents who identify themselves as Republicans support some action.
And the real question -- should emissions be capped and would you be more inclined to support a politician that favored a cap? 58 percent of respondents said yes, they would think more favorably of such politicians including 79% of Democrats, 50% of independents, and 39% of Republicans.
According to Pew, the survey identified "overwhelming support for a two-part plan to reduce global warming emissions and to require use of clean energy sources."
The survey was conducted between Oct. 20 and 29 by Public Opinion Strategies, with results analyzed by the Mellman Group, a Democratic consulting firm. Responses have a reported margin of error of 4 points.
Conservatives are seizing the opportunity to denounce Pew's survey based on the lack of transparency in the public results. To be fair to critics, there are a number of elements typical to survey disclosures and ethics that are missing, including distinctions between results from the total sample versus subsamples, response rates, and the eligibility criteria used for respondents.
The majority of the date encouraged by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, however, is included in Pew's public survey results.
Related Links:
Pew Environment Group: Missouri Survey Results
AAPOR Survey Disclosure Standards
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