Friday was a Day of Transparency for the White House. In addition to releasing
data reported by recipients of funds under the federal stimulus package, the White House also released scores of names from visitors logs.
Norm Eisen, a Presidential adviser, noted that as many as 100,000 people visit the White House each month, and that the records released include names that may coincidentally match famous or controversial individuals, but are in fact someone else.
"In September, requests were submitted for the names of some famous or controversial figures (for example Michael Jordan, William Ayers, Michael Moore, Jeremiah Wright, Robert Kelly ("R. Kelly"), and Malik Shabazz)," Eisen said in a
statement. "The well-known individuals with those names never actually came to the White House. Nevertheless, we were asked for those names and so we have included records for those individuals who were here and share the same names."
Names on the list that are not a sham, include Bill Gates, George Soros, Denzel Washington and Oprah Winfrey. In addition, the disclosures acknowledge six separate visits from former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan.
View the disclosures here.
Photo Credit: White House
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Summary only.
Missouri firms receiving contracts, grants, and loans from the federal stimulus package reported receiving 15,124 jobs, according to data released Friday by the White House.
That's the 14th highest number of jobs created from the stimulus among states, according to data reported by award recipients in October.
Recipients from Missouri reported on a total of 3,674 awards in the state valued at $2.8 billion. The largest component of those awards -- grants -- accounted for 14,484 of the total jobs reported in the state.
The zip code reporting the highest number of jobs -- 65102 -- is somewhat misleading since that's accounting for state grants, logging Jefferson City as the source of jobs created.
Nationally, the White House claims the $787 billion stimulus package directly saved or created 650,000 jobs.
Republicans in Washington were quick to criticize the reported numbers as inaccurate and only a small portion of the 3 million jobs lost nationally since the stimulus package passed earlier this year. Democrats responded by saying the job creation is a positive sign the Recovery Act is having an intended and tangible impact.
“This is another encouraging sign of progress following yesterday’s news that the economy has begun to grow again for the first time in more than a year, but the President and I will not be satisfied until monthly reports show net job growth," Vice President Joe Biden (D) said in a statement. "We are working every day to create more jobs and we will continue to report on our progress doing so with the Recovery Act in the same transparent way we did today.”
Federal agencies independently validated the estimates over the past month, but errors likely still remain in the dataset.
Note: Contract data and job counts were previously reported on MPN.
Related Links:
Recovery.gov
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Summary only.
House Candidate Glen Klippenstein (R) raised just over $13,000 during his first quarter of fundraising for the race to replace Rep. Jim Guest (R).
Guest, who is term-limited in 2010, claimed 57 percent of the vote in 2008, a 2,300 vote margin from his Democratic challenger.
As of last week, Klippenstein, a former state senator, won't be free of opposition. On Oct. 23rd, Judy Wright (D) filed paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to form a campaign committee. Fundraising information for Wright will not be available until the end of the year.
For Klippenstein, 43 percent of total receipts during the period originated from individuals in Missouri and an almost equal share, 42 percent, came from out-of-state donors.
Klippenstein's finance reports filed last week erroneously claim receipts for the election period twice what they actually were. To date, Klippenstein fundraised for only a single quarter, thus total receipts are $13,061.
The campaign had $1,761 in disbursements and reported $11,300 cash-on-hand.
Related Links:
Judy Wright Campaign Finance Reports
Glen Klippenstein Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
A Kansas City native and contract worker single-handedly fought off an insurgent attack in Kabul Wednesday, according to reports from the Associated Press and Washington Post.
Chris Turner, a Missouri trucker and contractor in Afghanistan, held off insurgents attacking a United Nations compound armed with an AK-47.
"I am armed. I carry an AK-47 and I kept firing it to keep the attackers away from the group I was guarding," Turner said.
His actions allowed about 20 U.N. election workers to escape.
Another Missourian was among seven U.S. soldiers killed in action earlier this week. According to the Department of Defense, Sgt. Isaac Jackson of Plattsburg died from wounds suffered when a vehicle he was traveling in was attacked by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. Jackson was assigned to the 1st Battalion, 17th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Infantry Division at Fort Lewis, Washington.
Related Links:
AP: US contractor fights off attack in Kabul
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Summary only.
It's not a definitive success, but at least 30,100 Missourians have already claimed the First Time Home-buyers Tax Credit.
The estimate comes from the federal General Accountability Office (GAO) who reviewed Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data of those claiming the credit.
Missouri's 5.1 claims per thousand residents ranks 20th nationally. Among adjacent states though, only Kansas, Kentucky and Illinois ranked lower.
The estimate includes those eligible for the initial credit in 2008, that was essentially a $7,500 loan to be repaid over 15 years. In addition, the total includes those claiming the $8,000 credit enacted by the federal stimulus in early 2009 (as of Aug. 2009).
That stimulus credit is slated to expire Nov. 30, but Congress is currently considering a reauthorization. That reauthorization, in fact, is holding up passage of a bill to extend unemployment insurance benefits to millions.
CQ reported Wed. that a bipartisan coalition of senators agreed to amendments that would expand the first-time hombuyer tax credit. The agreement would reportedly decrease the credit from $8,000 to $7,200 and also increase those eligible to apply to current home owners.
According to GAO, the current tax credit cost the federal government $7.1 billion in 2008 and $2.9 billion between January and August of 2009. Cost estimates are not yet available for the likely expansion.
The report also found that 59 percent of those claiming the credit had annual gross adjusted incomes under $50,000, supporting the notion that lower income taxpayers would realize the greatest benefit from the credit.
Related Links:
GAO: First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Testimony
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Summary only.
Gov. Jay Nixon (D) today announced $204 million in budget cuts and termination of nearly 700 state jobs.
The cuts largely target Medicaid payments to health care providers and arts subsidies (see a partial list of cuts after the jump).
"These restrictions have become necessary due to declining state revenues caused by the ongoing national economic downturn," Nixon said today, according to the AP.
Tax receipts are down 10 percent from one year ago. In Sept. alone receipts dove by 16 percent.
Nixon's cuts now total 2.7 percent of the $24 billion FY2010 budget approved by lawmakers earlier this year.
Cuts announced by Nixon on 10/27/2009
$(M) Program
32.4 Medicaid
29.3 wireless radio network
20.0 state personnel costs
20.0 state building O&M
15.8 school transportation
13.0 Life Sciences research Trust Fund
11.1 State Retirement Reserve fund
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Summary only.
Gov. Jay Nixon (D) and state budget director Linda Luebbering will announce more cuts to the state's $23.7 billion budget Wed. morning.
To date, Nixon has cut $430 million from the budget passed by lawmakers earlier this year. The most recent cuts included a 15 percent reduction to state parks employees last week due to declining sales tax revenues earmarked for conservation.
Update: Nixon slashes $204 million more from budget
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Summary only.
Missouri State Auditor Candidate Tom Schweich (R) launched a new campaign website today at
TomSchweich.com.
"This upgraded version of our online strategy keeps you up to date with our latest news, allows you to sign up for periodic updates via email, watch videos of Tom’s appearances and supporters comments, see when we are going to be in your area, and tell your friends about our efforts," Schweich's campaign said today in an email.
The website was designed by
The Rocket Group, LLC. According to Schweich's latest campaign finance report, the
Rocket Group received $3,687 for web design and media consulting in late September. The group also developed websites for the Tour of Missouri,
former Attorney General Candidate Mike Gibbons (R) and
Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R).
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Summary only.
Most Missourians probably won't notice, but for the politicos and campaign consultants that frequent the Missouri Ethics Commission's (MEC) website, a couple new features are sure to be a hit.
MEC released two substantial improvements to their website Monday including searchability for 48 Hour Reports of contributions greater than $5,000 and contributions from political committees that previously were not required to submit electronic reports.
“The Commission continues improving transparency and resources available to the public about campaign finance reporting”, said MEC Executive Director Julie Allen in a press release.
Since we spend considerable time at MPN scouring through campaign finance reports, any improvements to the system are greatly appreciated.
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Summary only.
Missouri State Auditor Candidate Tom Schweich (R) is touting endorsements of leading state Republicans in a recent message to supporters, and mixing into that message his international credentials as a former ambassador to Afghanistan.
Schweich is slated to take a few days off from the campaign to participate in a training program for NATO officials in Germany. The training will include crime and corruption lessons for officers slated to deploy in Afghanistan.
So far Schweich has been endorsed by Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, former U.S. Sen Jack Danforth, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, and U.S. Congressman Roy Blunt.
"Schweich would bring a tremendous background of public service and great credentials in finance and management to the State Auditor's job," Blunt reportedly said of Schweich.
Schweich's primary opponent, State House Budget Chairman Allen Icet, previously announced endorsements from 81 state representatives and 4 state senators. Icet's list of endorsers does not yet include any elected officials from statewide or national positions.
The winner of the Republican primary will face incumbent Democratic State Auditor Susan Montee in the Nov. 2010 general election.
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Summary only.
Last week MPNblog.com identified errors in Missouri State Auditor Susan Montee's (D) third quarter campaign finance report. On Thursday, Oct. 22, 5 days after our initial post, the Montee campaign filed an amended report with the Missouri Ethics Commission.
"Montee's non-political committee contributions are difficult to itemize since 42 individuals contributing 21 percent of the total had no locational data included, as required under Missouri law (RSMo 130.120)," our story reported last week.
Montee's campaign blamed the problems identified by MPN on software errors. The amended report briefly explained: "Fixing errors related to transition to new software."
MPN's follow-up analysis confirms that in the amended report, statutorily required data elements are present. In addition, though, 4 contributions on the original report are removed as duplicates, including Spainhower Trust (150), Chase Williams (500), Sean & Leigh Spence (500), and Chase Williams (1000). Another 6 contributions were added, including Vincent Becker (60), Sue Comley (50), Thomas Schwegler (80), Mary Beattie (100), Pat and Deidre Squires (100), and Ron and Nancy Reed (500).
In aggregate, the report adjusts total contributions received down by $34 for total receipts during the period of $105,900. An additional $2,843 in expenditures were added bringing total expenditures to $73,369 during the current election cycle.
With these reported changes, Montee's campaign now has $234,473 cash-on-hand at the close of Sept. with $515,000 in personal debt.
Related Links:
Montee Amended Campaign Finance Report
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Summary only.
Missouri House Candidate Keri Cottrell (D) raised $3,200 during the third fundraising quarter of 2009, bringing total fundraising for her campaign to $4,600.
Cottrell is an outspoken supporter of public schools and a 4th grade teacher in the Canton School District, which is in northeast Missouri.
Her name is familiar in District 1, after an unsuccessful bid to unseat term-limited Rep. Brian Munzlinger in 2008. Cottrell was defeated by a
3,400 vote margin in that election.
For that election, Cottrell raised
$19,300, shy of
Munzlinger's $28,000.
In the most recent fundraising period, Cottrell received 45 individual contributions from Northeast Missouri, accounting for 84 percent of her itemized contributions from individuals and averaging just over $50 each.
Cottrell also received two political committee contributions -- from Jeff Roorda (D) and Teamsters Local #688. At least one additional political contribution identified in reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission for the period was not included in Cottrell's finance report, a $500 contribution from the Women's Political Caucus of Eastern Missouri PAC.
At the end of the period Cottrell reported $3,400 cash-on-hand, a relatively small amount for what is likely to be a challenging district for Democrats to pick up, even with no clear Republican challenger one year out from the election.
Related Links:
Cottrell Campaign Website
Cottrell Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill's (D) interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC's
This Week Sunday morning touched on two issues -- H1N1 preparedness and the health care debate.
Reports of widespread flu symptoms are due to a successful public awareness campaign, according to McCaskill.
"I think...one of the reasons we have so many more people going to the doctor for flu symptoms is because we’ve done such a good job with public awareness," McCaskill told Stephanopoulos.
But McCaskill's primary reason for being on the show was health care, so not surprisingly the conversation turned quickly to that debate. McCaskill was one of a handful of Democrats to recently oppose a plan to relax Medicare cuts on doctors.
"I don’t think that the vote last week should be any signal to America that we have lost the will to move forward and fix the ridiculously difficult and expensive health care dilemma we face in this country," McCaskill said in responding to how this issue will be resolved in the future. "And frankly, you can’t be a deficit hawk -- you can’t be a serious deficit hawk and not realize we’ve got to do something. Just continuing to do what we’re doing now is going to put health care out of reach of most Americans within a decade."
On the health care reform "public option", McCaskill clearly indicated her support and even indicated the bill will be wrapped up by year's end.
"I support the public option. I’ll vote for the public option," McCaskill told Stephanopoulos.
Only one Republican has indicated support for the proposal, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), allowing the health care legislation to move out of committee. In the U.S. House, the fate of the option is even less certain as moderate Democrats like Rep. Ike Skelton remain skeptical such approaches are good policy.
The video and full transcript are linked below.
Related Links:
CQ Transcript of ABC appearance on 10/25/2009
Video of ABC appearance on 10/25/2009
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Summary only.
It's been two full weeks since MPNblog.com re-entered Missouri's blog network, and we're proud to announce we have penetrated the top ten sites on BlogNet.com's influence index.
Our official return to the listing came last week. Since then, MPNblog.com jumped 5 slots to the number 9 slot. On a per-post basis, MPN's influence was ranked number 7.
BlogNet also ranked MPN as the number 1 liberal blog in Missouri for the week.
BlogNet lists 44 blogs on their blogroll, but the total number of blogs considered for rankings in Missouri is unknown.
The algorithm for determining influence is also somewhat a mystery but presumably includes factors such as total viewers, posts, comments, and user ratings.
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Summary only.
U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D) will talk health care on ABC's Sunday morning show
This Week with George Stephanopoulos.
According to
ABC, McCaskill will be featured in a health care exclusive segment with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate.
Related Links:
ABC's This Week Website
McCaskill Campaign Website
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Summary only.
U.S. Sen. Kit Bond (R) reiterated his opposition to federal cap-and-trade legislation in a statement to supporters on Friday.
Bond maintains the legislation would increase energy prices and stymie job growth.
“The [cap-and-trade] bill is a giant new energy tax on America’s families and workers,” Bond said at a news conference with other Republicans opposed to the bill. “My Missouri constituents are saying no to this job-killing and tax-raising bill and so will I.”
Bond cites a recent study from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) that estimates the House bill could reduce up to 59,000 Missouri jobs. That study actually provides a range of job losses from 43,000 to 59,000, and indicates that would be a cumulative total through 2030.
That's not actually as bad as it may seem. Consider, for instance, that over the past year alone Missouri lost nearly 78,000 jobs from the recession. NAM's estimates would at most be about 3,000 per year.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released estimates of the legislation and noted nominal impacts on job growth and increases in gross domestic product (GDP), but indicated such estimates should be received with extreme uncertainty due to their long-term nature.
The liberal Center for American progress also issued a study suggesting cap-and-trade legislation may increase employment nationally.
Missouri's other Senator, Claire McCaskill (D), has expressed concerns over the legislation but has not formally announced a position to date.
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Summary only.
Rep. Gary Dusenberg (R), a candidate for State Senate District 8, raised just $8,300 during the last fundraising quarter.
Dusenberg received 23 percent of the itemized contributions from political committees, and the remainder from 12 individuals and businesses. All but one of those contributions originated within Missouri, and the majority ($4,800) were from the Kansas City region.
Dusenberg had $53,000 cash-on-hand at the close of the period, the least among his likely primary candidates that include
Rep. Brian Yates and
Rep. Brian Pratt.
Related Links:
Dusenberg Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
State Rep. Brian Pratt (R), a candidate for District 8 state senator, raised a total of $76,000 during the third quarter of fundraising, substantially more than either of identified potential primary opponents.
Just over 28 percent of Pratt's total contributions in the period came from individuals outside the state of Missouri, according MPN's analysis of data from the Missouri Ethics Commission.
Pratt had just 38 itemized contributions from in-state donors, amounting to $27,000, or 36 percent, of total fundraising.
Pratt's remaining receipts originated with political committees -- some of which were misclassified in a report filed with the Ethics Commission last week.
The largest contribution of $5,000 came from the Missouri Leadership Committee and a total of 10 contributions were greater than $1,000. Those donations came from a variety of industry and candidate political committees.
Current receipts for this election cycle total $230,000 for Pratt, including a $50,000 personal loan. Pratt's campaign disbursed just $41,000 during the cycle leaving $229,000 cash-on-hand.
Pratt may face two other Republicans in the party primary next August, including Rep. Brian Yates and Rep. Gary Dusenberg. The winner of that contest will seek to replace State Sen. Matt Bartle (R), who is prevented from running for re-election due to term limits. No Democrats have yet formed committees to run in this district.
Related Links:
Pratt Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
Missouri state House Candidate Kelly Schultz (D) received $15,000 in contributions during the third fundraising quarter of 2009.
Schultz is a candidate in an open seat being vacated by term-limited
State Rep. Steve Hobbs (R).
Schultz was defeated by Hobbs with a
2,000-vote margin in the 2008 General Election. During that race Hobbs had the incumbency advantage. Since this is an open seat in 2010, Schultz's candidacy makes this seat a toss-up, especially with no clear Republican challenger to date.
During the most recent fundraising period, Schultz received contributions from more than 100 donors, three-quarters of which were from the Central Region of Missouri.
"The outpouring of early support I have received has been tremendous," Schultz said in a statement. "In talking with voters, I can tell people want someone who will speak for them in Jefferson City, and I am glad that my friends, family and neighbors are willing to help me get there."
Schultz raised 39 percent of her total funds in the period from political committees, including a $250 contribution from former employer Jeff Harris (D), who served as the House Minority Leader before he moved to Gov. Jay Nixon's (D) policy staff in early 2009. The receipts also include a $2,700 in-kind contribution from Safer Families for Missouri.
Schultz logged $25,700 in receipts for the current election cycle and $2,000 in disbursements. Her campaign currently has $21,000 cash-on-hand.
Related Links:
Schultz Campaign Website
Schultz Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
Rep. Brian Yates (R) raised less than $10,000 during the most recent fundraising period ending Sept. 30.
Yates is currently registered with the Missouri Ethics Commission for a primary race against long-time friend Rep. Brian Pratt (R). Pratt raised more than 7 times Yates' total during the same period.
Half of Yates' total fundraising came from political committees, while the other half came from 5 businesses, only one of which is based in Missouri.
The lackluster performance of Yates and Rep. Gary Dusenberg, places Pratt as the fundraising front-runner.
Yates maintained $73,300 cash-on-hand at the end of the period.
Related Links:
Yates Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
The Missouri Department of Transportation, MoDOT, is criticizing the loss of $200 million in federal funds.
The funding was rescinded from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) by Congress in P.L. 109-59. The rescission targeted unobligated balances, or funds not committed to be spent from the previous fiscal years.
Rescissions are a common budgeting tool used throughout federal agencies and are frequently requested in the President's Budget submission. The requests are so common, in fact, procedures are specified in
OMB Circular A-11, the document that outlines the federal budgeting process.
FHWA notified states of the $8 billion cancellations nationally in an
August 2009 notice. MoDOT learned of the $202 million in cancellations at the
same time.
MoDOT's press release said Congress "failed to repeal" the rescission, but did not note the federal Department of Transportation received $30 billion under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act earlier this year. Much of that funding is designated for state highway programs. As of Oct. 21, Missouri received $100 million from the federal stimulus for highway improvements, according to the state's Map Your Taxes website.
"About half of this reduction will directly impact projects selected by our local partners," MoDOT Director Pete Rahn said in a press release denouncing the loss of funding. "As we have cautioned repeatedly, our funding sources soon won't keep pace with even our basic maintenance needs. Missouri cannot afford to lose these funds."
Rahn claims the funding will impact planned improvements for the bridge program, congestion mitigation, and improvements to sidewalks and recreational trails.
Related Links:
FHWA Rescission Notice
MoDOT Press Release
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Summary only.
Missouri House Minority Leader Paul LeVota (D) raised $6,570 over the last fundraising quarter, according to a report filed last week with the Missouri Ethics Commission.
LeVota, who is term-limited out of the house after his fourth term, amended paperwork to continue fundraising under a statewide committee -- LeVota for Missouri -- and for the 2012 election cycle.
A total of 84 percent of LeVota's contributions received during the period originated with political committees. The remaining funds come in the form of 15 itemized individual contributions from Missourians averaging just over $50.
Over the election cycle, LeVota raised $28,800 and spent $36,000, a large portion of which went to other candidates including State Auditor Susan Montee ($500), the House Democratic Campaign Committee ($1,600), Clay Rodgers ($350), Dave Coffman ($300), among others.
LeVota's committee currently has $15,700 cash-on-hand.
Related Links:
LeVota Campaign Website
LeVota Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
State Rep. Luke Scavuzzo (D) raised just $7,250 during the most recent fundraising period.
Three-quarters of the itemized contributions originated from political committees, including a large number of unions.
Scavuzzo does not currently face opposition in the 2010 election. Former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) is now seeking the Republican nomination in the U.S. House race against incumbent Congressman Ike Skelton (D). Hartzler filed a limited activity statement for the same fundraising period.
To date, Scavuzzo has raised $13,000 for the election cycle, disbursed $9,400 and currently has $8,200 cash-on-hand.
Related Links:
Scavuzzo for State Rep Campaign Website
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Summary only.
Missouri's total payments from the federal stimulus package topped $1 billion last week.
According to Missouri's Map Your Taxes website, the state received $1.46 billion to date from the federal government and, as of Oct. 19th, has outlaid $1.08 billion.
The state maintains a balance of $380 million left to be spent, one-quarter of the total received to date.
As of Oct. 6th, 50 percent of the funds received were directed to the state Department of Social Services. An additional 27 percent funded unemployment benefits and other programs associated with the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations. All other programs, including education, transportation, and natural resources are funded from the remaining 23 percent. Those totals are subject to change as more funds are received by the state from federal formula allocations.
To track total receipts and payments, watch the bar chart to the right from any MPNblog.com webpage, at the bottom of this post.
Source: Missouri Map Your Taxes, as of Oct. 20, 2009
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Summary only.
Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon’s (D) Administration announced Monday a cut of at least 100 jobs in the state Department of Natural Resources Division of Parks.
The cuts are reportedly due to a slump in revenues from the conservation sales tax and will impact operations throughout the state. Sales tax revenues are slated to be down $5 million in 2010 compared to 2008 levels.
"These sales tax entities...have seen a significant dip because of this economy,"
Nixon told reporters Monday. "[The cuts have] a lot to do with how much is coming in from the park sales tax, that's the major reason."
Employees were notified Monday of the job cuts, according to Department spokesman Travis Ford. The cuts are slated to save the state $3.7 million this year and $6.3 million annually in the future.
“We know [the cut] will be more than 100, but we don’t know what the specific number will be,” Ford said in media reports. “It will be three weeks before we know the full details of how many positions will be eliminated.”
The governor’s FY2010 budget request included 716 full-time-equivalent (FTE) positions in DNR’s Division of State Parks, before the eliminations. Approximately 600 FTEs in the Division are traditionally funded by the sales tax.
The cuts come as a surprise since several weeks ago Nixon announced an initiative to use Missouri’s 83 parks and historical sites to reinvigorate the state’s tourism industry.
"Our parks represent Missouri's rich diversity of landscapes, ecosystems and cultural landmarks," Nixon said in an Oct. 1 statement. "Boosting attendance at our state parks will help preserve a vital part of our Missouri heritage….We're talking about using our state parks to grow the size of the entire tourism pie so that all of our destinations and attractions benefit."
Nixon’s staff noted in a past press release the precipitous decline in park attendance, down more than 1 million between 2007 and 2008. Nixon’s initiative to boost tourism with state parks will undoubtedly be affected by the employee reduction, the full impact won’t likely be seen until peak use next spring.
Related Links:
CDT: Parks division cuts 100-plus jobs
AP: Missouri parks system losing more than 100 jobs
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Summary only.
Congress is considering multiple proposals to extend the $8,000 First Time Home-buyers Tax Credit, which is set to expire at the end of November.
Discussion of an extension gained steam this week as Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Johnny Isaakson (D-GA) pushed for further consideration. The estimated price tag -- $16.7 billion.
Although no concrete data exists on the number of home-buyers slated to claim the credit, anecdotal evidence suggests the credit has driven thousands into the market and is generally having a positive impact, even in Missouri.
The coalition for extending the credit seems to be growing as many first time home-buyers worry they may not close on their homes in time to claim the credit, especially for those attempting to snatch up foreclosures or short sales.
One proponent of the credit, Moody.com's chief economist Mark Zandi, says the credit is essential to helping the entire economy recover.
"The most fundamental argument for the credit is that nothing works in the economy if housing is falling -- it hurts household wealth and credit becomes tight," said Zandi. "[The credit is] vital to stem the housing price declines."
The Fix Housing First Coalition contracted an analysis of the tax credit's impact. The conclusion of that analysis is that the credit has been successful at reducing the existing supply of homes. This mirrors what the data for Missouri suggests (see vacancy rate discussion below).
Positions of Missouri's Senators
Both of Missouri's senators support some form of expansion or extension. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) supports extending the tax credit for first-time home-buyer service members currently deployed abroad.
“Buying a home is an essential part of the American dream – a dream our troops fight for – and those service members should not be denied that dream because of their service abroad,” McCaskill said in a press release.
The policy and economic rationale of McCaskill's proposal has not been clearly delineated, since the proposal would significantly limit the scope of the credit, thus also the potential impact. The proposal would also not benefit those currently drawn into the market by the existing tax credit, but who may miss the window due to the stock of houses in the price range for most first time buyers.
On the other side of the aisle, Sen. Kit Bond (R) claims to oppose the existing tax credit but unequivocally supports a blanket expansion of the credit. Bond's proposal would increase the credit to $15,000 and would benefit any homebuyer.
In a form letter Bond is sending to constituents on the topic, the senator indicates he will only support a broad extension that increases the amount to $15,000.
Such a broad initiative would surely have deficit hawks crying foul, but would presumably have a similar economic impact in the near-term. In the long-term though, Bond's proposal would likely not reduce home vacancy rates since the credit would draw many existing homeowners to upgrade rather than creating homeowners from renters.
Would either support a straight extension as proposed by Dodd and Isaakson? Perhaps, but neither McCaskill or Bond have elaborated on alternate proposals. In all reality support would likely revert to partisan standing with McCaskill voting affirmatively and Bond opposing any attempt to extend the current credit.
Reviewing Vacancy Rate Data
Politics aside, Missouri home vacancy rates noticeably declined from the first quarter of 2009 when the tax credit was enacted (see P.L. 111-5). According to survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau, in the first quarter Missouri vacancy rates stood at 2.5 percent (+/-0.8 90th percentile MOE) compared to second quarter rates of 2.0 percent (+/- 0.7). Compared to other states, that was the 12th best improvement in the country.
Nationally, the rate declined by only 0.3 percent over the same time period, from 2.8 to 2.5 percent (+/- 0.1). Regionally, the midwest also saw a delcine of 0.3 percent.
So what does this mean? Home-ownership rates in Missouri ostensibly declined at a greater rate than both the national and regional averages, but all of which actually declined. This isn't a clear indication that the tax credit is working as intended, but offers compelling support that outcomes are adhering to an expected trajectory.
New Residential Construction
The impact does not seem to have likewise trickled into the new home construction market, at least not in a trend-altering sense. Permits for new residential construction have continued to decline. In August, permits were down by nearly 500 relative to 2008, a 40% decline.
At a purely theoretical level, we might expect new home permits to be lagged since the stock of vacant existing homes would need to reach a palatable level to suggest suitable demand before builders return to large-scale construction (realigning supply and demand for the econs out there). This is further perpetuated by the fact that first-time home-buyers tend to be priced out of new constructions.
With the fate of the tax credit in limbo this discussion highlights a frequent issue in policy decisions -- incomplete information. We assume the credit is having a positive impact because the data is incomplete to suggest anything otherwise. Until such data becomes available, all we have to go on is presumption, theory, and anecdotal evidence.
Related Links:
Census Housing Vacancy Survey
Census Historical Housing Permit data by state (xls)
IRS: First-time Home-Buyer Tax Credit overview
CNN: Stimulus: Creating jobs or not?
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Summary only.
Endorsements are no longer just static lists on candidate websites -- they're now interactive. The Republican candidates for state auditor are posting a variety of endorsements on YouTube.
State House Budget Chairman Allen Icet posted first, with a video touting endorsements from fellow elected representatives.
"When a statewide candidate is able to go to every corner of the state, and have that state representative or that state senator that represents that district, especially in the rural areas of the state, saying 'that's our guy, this is the man.' That carries a lot of water," State Sen. Jim Lembke says at the opening of one of Icet's videos.
Schweich responded last week by posting a series of 11 testimonials from personal friends and former collegues offering endorsements.
"I like Tom Schweich because he has an incredible resume. He has accomplished so many things for this country. I'm looking for to his helping the state of Missouri," Freddie Steinbach of Chesterfield, a financial donor to Schweich, said in one of the testimonials.
On the whole, neither candidate's videos have become YouTube sensations. Schweich's has 5 to 12 views on each video. Icet's video, in contrast, just passed the 100 view mark.
The winner of the Republican primary will face Democratic incumbent Susan Montee in the Nov. 2010 general election.
Related Links:
Schweich for Auditor on YouTube
Icet for Auditor on YouTube
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Summary only.
St. Louis millionaire and free-market proponent Rex Sinquefield dumped $165,500 into 12 campaign funds during the third quarter of 2009, including both Republicans and Democrats.
The reports released by the Missouri Ethics Commission come as The Kansas City Star this week called attention to the free flow of money around causes supported by Sinquefield. The Star noted that in recent years Sinquefield spent nearly $4 million attempting to influence policy decisions in Missouri.
Just one year ago, Sinquefield donated thousands through a series of 100 Political Committees intended to circumvent campaign finance law at the time. This time around Sinquefield's contributions largely went directly to candidates.
The greatest beneficiary in the past quarter was Tim Jones (R), who received $40,000, followed closely by St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley who received $30,000. A full list of recipients of Sinquefield's recipients in the past quarter can be found after the jump.
COMMITTEES RECEIVING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM REX SINQUEFIELD IN 3Q-2009:
CITIZENS FOR TIMOTHY W JONES $40,000.00
DOOLEY FOR ST LOUIS COUNTY $30,000.00
PARSON FOR STATE SENATE $25,000.00
ICET FOR AUDITOR $25,000.00
HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAMP COMM INC $10,000.00
FRIENDS OF RANDY JOTTE $10,000.00
CLINT ZWEIFEL FOR MISSOURI $5,000.00
BOB DIXON FOR SENATE $5,000.00
CITIZENS FOR NIEVES $5,000.00
BOB DIXON FOR SENATE $5,000.00
CITIZENS FOR DIECKHAUS $4,500.00
RON RICHARD 2010 $1,000.00
Related Links:
MEC: Sinquefield Contributions in 3Q-2009
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Summary only.
After one week of publication following our one-year hiatus, MPNblog.com jumped back onto BlogNet.com's influence index.
Throughout the week our campaign finance series has been reflected in BlogNet's "Most Clicked Posts" category. As of the time of this post, our story yesterday on Missouri's 4th House District fundraising is the top story on BlogNet.
Although the number 14 rank is far from our pre-hiatus average of number 2, the current rank suggests we're on our way back to the top.
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Summary only.
Congressman Ike Skelton (D-MO4) reported 2009 campaign receipts three times above either of his Republican challengers, as the third fundraising quarter of the year closed last week.
According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Skelton raised a total of $616,000 so far during 2009. The two Republicans currently vying for the seat, former State Rep. Vicky Hartzler and current State Senator Bill Stouffer, received $224,000 and $205,000, respectively.
A Twitter update from Hartlzer noted her campaign was leading Stouffer in terms of cash-on-hand. However, Hartzler donated $105,000 in personal funds to her campaign, boosting both receipts and cash-on-hand.
Despite Skelton's fundraising lead, he remains a formidable incumbent due to his widespread popularity among district voters. In 2008, Skelton received 66 percent of the vote in his district.
As a moderate Democrat, Skelton was potentially vulnerable if he chose to support current Democratic health care reform initiatives. But Skelton announced earlier this week he will not vote for the current health care reform.
"I oppose the current House proposals and will vote against them unless they are vastly improved," Skelton said in his weekly column. "Health insurance reform must not include a 'public option.'"
Related Links:
Stouffer Campaign Website
Hartzler Campaign Website
Skelton Campaign Website
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Summary only.
Incumbent State Auditor Susan Montee, a Democrat, raised $106,000 in campaign contributions during the most recent quarter of fundraising, but failed to outraise either of the main Republican contenders.
House Budget Chairman Allen Icet (R) reported raising $128,000 while former Ambassador Tom Schweich (R) raised an astounding $350,000 for the Republican primary, more than Icet and Montee combined.
Montee's report filed last week with the Missouri Ethics Commission shows 401 itemized contributions during the period, averaged at $264. Only one of those contributions was greater than $5,000, from the Pipe Fitters Local #533.
A total of 22 percent of Montee's contributions were from political committees, slightly less than Icet but more than Schweich who received just one PAC contribution.
Montee's non-political committee contributions are difficult to itemize since 42 individuals contributing 21 percent of the total had no locational data included, as required under Missouri law (RSMo 130.120).
Using the limited data included in the initial report, contributions to Montee from individuals are widely dispersed throughout the Northwest, Kansas City, Central, St. Louis, and Southwest regions, more so than her Republican challengers. Montee performed poorly only in the Northeast and Southeast, two regions where Icet and Schweich also reported low contributions.
Montee has $237,351 cash-on-hand after $7,811 in expenditures during the period. Montee also maintains $515,000 in personal debt from a personal loan to her 2006 campaign.
Related Links:
Montee Campaign Finance Reports
Montee for Auditor Campaign Website
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Summary only.
State Rep. Allen Icet was soundly out-fundraised by his State Auditor primary opponent during 2009's third quarter of fundraising, according to data released Thursday by the Missouri Ethics Commission.
Icet, the State House Budget Chairman, reported raising $192,000 for the election and $128,000 during the quarter. That brings Icet's total to less than half of opponent
Tom Schweich's reported total of $350,000.
Icet's fundraising was bolstered by a $25,000 contribution from Rex Sinquefield and
a series of $5,000 contributions. Surprisingly, Schweich received more donations of $10,000 or more, even though he recently touted the number of small contributions. Icet received a total of 31 contributions of $100 or less.
Icet also relied much more heavily on political committees, which accounted for one-quarter of his total fundraising. Schweich, in contrast, received only one PAC contribution.
Regionally Icet's contributions were concentrated in the St. Louis and Central Regions. Schweich managed to outraise Icet in the St. Louis and Southwest regions, but the opposite was true in the Central Region where Icet raised $30,000 more.
In general, although Schweich raised more in the Northwest, Northeast, Kansas City, or Southeast regions, neither candidate performed particularly strongly in those areas.
At the end of the period, Icet's campaign reported $139,000 cash on hand after $47,000 in disbursements.
The winner of the Republican primary next year will likely face Susan Montee, the Democratic incumbent.
Related Links:
Icet Campaign Finance Reports
Campaign Website: Icet for Auditor
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Summary only.
Missouri gained 475 jobs from the 274 contracts funded by the federal Recovery Act, according to data released Thursday by the White House.
To date, $204.6 million in contracts have been awarded to recipients in Missouri. The jobs estimate covers $146 million of that total and more jobs are expected to be announced later this month from grants and loans.
Not surprisingly, since most of the contract funds were awarded through funding allocations or selected by federal agencies for specific services, jobs created were not really targeted to states with the highest unemployment rates (see chart after jump).
Missouri ranked 22nd in terms of the number of jobs created from contracts. Since raw jobs created is a relatively bad comparison, in normalized terms, Missouri ranked 22th when total job creation is placed in the context of the current labor force.
So is the cost worth the jobs created or saved? It may be too early to say, but Democrats in Washington have no doubts.
Vice President Joe Biden remained optimistic after the first report of Recovery Act jobs surfaced during a speech at the St. Louis County Police and Fire Training Center.
“Are we home yet? No, no we are not,” Biden said, according to the Post-Dispatch. “But we’ve stopped the bleeding. The patient is gaining consciousness. We are making progress.”
Jared Bernstein, of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, issued a statement saying it is "too soon to draw any global conclusions from this partial and preliminary data" but the early results are positive in meeting preliminary estimates generated by CEA.
Reporting data for the remainder of funds allocated to Missouri under the Recovery Act will be released later this month.
Related Links:
Recovery.gov: Where's the Money Going? - Missouri
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Summary only.
Missouri's September unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month's rate of 9.5 percent and below the national rate of 9.8 percent, according to the Missouri Department of Economic Development (DED)
In a press release Wed., DED noted labor conditions appear to be stabilizing after four months of slowing increases in unemployment.
Missouri's rate increased by only 3.2 points since last Sept., just below the national average increase of 3.6 points. DED's perhaps overly optimistic view of the current conditions was recently echoed by Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the Mid-America Economic Outlook.
"Based on our surveys over the past several months, I expect the job outlook to improve in the months ahead. This will stimulate the discouraged unemployment to once again enter the job search process. This will cause state’s jobless rate to rise by another 0.2 percent by the end of 2009 even as the employment outlook improves,” said Goss.
In terms of jobs, DED reported a drop of 3,000 concentrated in manufacturing (-1,800) and accommodation and food services (-2,100). Regionally, DED reported increases in St. Louis and declines in Kansas City.
Related Links:
DED: Sept. Jobs Report
Mid-America Economic Outlook
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Summary only.
Republican auditor candidate Tom Schweich raised nearly $350,000 during his first quarter of fundraising, according to MPN's analysis of a campaign finance report filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission on Tuesday.
Schweich, a former U.S. ambassador, has billed himself as an outsider to politics, but his finance data shows he is no outsider to the Missouri donor base. Ninety percent of Schweich's funds
and unique donors were from Missouri, with heavy concentrations in the St. Louis and Southwest Regions.
Schweich's fundraising totals were bolstered by six $10,000 contributions from a variety of engineering and construction firms, as well as a $25,000 contribution from Sam Fox of the Harbour Group, a Washington-based political PR firm.
At the end of the period, Schweich's campaign reported $322,000 cash on hand after $13,200 in disbursements.
Schweich is one of two Republicans currently announced for the party primary in 2010, the other is former House Budget Chairman Allen Icet.
Related Links:
Schweich Campaign Finance Reports
Campaign Website: Tom Schweich for Auditor
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Summary only.
Missouri seat belt use is well below the national average, a pattern potentially reflected in highway fatality data. In 2009, just 77 percent of Missouri motorists frequently used seat belts, compared to the national average of 84 percent.
The use rate in Missouri does show signs of marginal improvement, up one point since the last survey, but that isn't enough according to some advocates.
"Missouri is seven points lower than the national seat belt use average," Leanna Depue of the Missouri Coalition for Roadway Safety's executive committee said. "Unfortunately, our number has only gone up one percentage point, which doesn't show any real improvement; and it's not likely to improve significantly without a primary safety belt law. We could save so many lives just by making our seat belt law a primary law."
Missouri's use rates are reflective of data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which shows 2 additional deaths per 10 million vehicle miles traveled above the national average.
Although fatality rates decreased relative to 1990, the gap between Missouri fatalities and the national average increased a full point. The decrease is likely related to improved vehicle safety features, but the gap is largely unexplained.
Proposed changes to Missouri seat belt laws have not been viewed favorably in recent years, perceived as overly prescriptive lawmaking. Rep. Bill Deeken (R), Rep. Jeff Roorda (D) and State Sen. Chuck Graham (D) all offered separate proposals in 2008 or 2009 that would have required all vehicle passengers to wear seat belts.
The next logical question is whether such laws are actually effective at reducing traffic fatalities. The answer: maybe, but the jury is still out on the complete policy impact. On an individual level use of seat belts remains a no brainer in terms of reducing fatalities, but the results are less clear for command and control regulations aimed at forced compliance. Just because belt usage is codified doesn't mean citizens comply.
There's some evidence from the rationalist policy school that increased vehicle safety results in riskier driving behavior. For instance, a New Zealand study found reduced motor vehicle fatalities due to a seat belt law, but those benefits were offset by increased cycling and pedestrian fatalities due to riskier driving.
Although some studies, such as one from the National Conference of State Legislators, claim mandated seat belt usage is unquestionably beneficial, the literature pool is far from conclusive.
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Summary only.
The Oct. 10 reporting deadline for recipients of funds doled out in the federal Recovery Act has come and gone. Reporting data for the $787 billion stimulus is set for initial release this Thursday.
According to
Recovery.gov, Missouri received $3.1 billion in loans, grants and contracts from the Recovery Act to date. Of that total, the Missouri government directly received $1.3 billion and outlayed just under $1 billion.
The contract reporting data release this week is expected to show total jobs created or saved, and a number of other program impact metrics. Grant and loan data will be released Oct. 30. Federal estimates compiled by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers initially estimated funding provided to Missouri would save or create 69,000 jobs.
Initial data will likely show early stimulus spending benefited the education sector more than other sectors, since government reports note that those funds were outlayed much quicker than programs that required significant work from modified allocation processes, such as new grant requirements.
As the initial Recovery Act results loom, whispers of a second stimulus already abound in Washington where major news outlets are reporting discussions among Republicans and Democrats. Leaders in both parties have publicly suggested a second stimulus is not necessary, but that has not stopped closed door planning.
The likelihood of the second stimulus will undoubtedly hinge on the results announced this week from the first initiative.
Related Links:
Recovery.gov: Important Milestones
Recovery.gov: Missouri Allocations
MAP Your Taxes: Stimulus Tracking
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Summary only.
When MPNblog.com 2.0 launches in the near future, be among the first to find out about our new features by subscribing to a RSS feed or email updates. Subscription information can be found after the jump or on the sidebar of any page.
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Summary only.
After taking more than a year off to reevaluate MPNblog.com's operation, we are pleased to announce the return of our in-depth analysis of the Show-Me State's political landscape. In the near future, we will launch MPNblog.com 2.0, a shift to provide strictly non-partisan analysis of state news, political events, campaign finances and economic indicators.
Stay tuned.
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