Analysis of data from the World Institute on Strategic Economic Research shows Missouri's year-to-date exports are down 29 percent from the same period in 2008. In raw dollar terms, exports are down $2.9 billion.
Regionally export activity is only marginally better, with 27 percent declines throughout the Midwestern Region.
Quarterly exports peaked in Missouri during the first quarter of 2007 and generally declined since. The current level of nominal export activity is roughly equal to that last seen during the third quarter of 2004, half a decade ago.
The impact on the state's gross domestic product, the premiere indicator of economic growth, won't be known for some time, but we can expect the result will be significant. In 2008, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated state GDP at $238 billion, meaning exports comprise about 4 percent of the total. So far this year, assuming state GDP doesn't decline in 2009 (an extremely conservative assumption), the export losses in the first three quarters of the year account for a reduction of 1 percent of GDP.
So far this year the hardest hit major industry, that is an industry with greater than $100 million in annual exports, is the petroleum and coal product industry with a 93 percent year-to-date decline in activity. The impact in this particular industry is amplified somewhat due to better-than-expected performance in 2008.
Two other industries that have seen their exports all but devastated include the $750 million Agricultural Products export industry with a 58 percent year-to-date decline, and the $450 million Waste and Scrap export industry with a 51 percent decline.
The only major industry in the state reporting a year-to-date increase was for food, which accounts for just 7 percent of the state's total exports.
Related Links:
WISERtrade.org
Posts
0 comments:
Post a Comment