Blunt and Carnahan in statistical dead heat

Congressman Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) are in a statistical dead heat for the 2010 Missouri Senate race, according to a new poll released this week.

The poll, conducted by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, shows that in a race between Blunt and Carnahan, it's Carnahan that leads by 1 percentage point. In other words, both candidates are within the statistical margin of error, 3.6%. However, 15% of voters haven't decided yet which candidate they will vote for.

The results showed 40% of the 763 likely Missouri voters had a favorable view of Carnahan, but just 30% had a favorable view of Blunt. That same question was even more revealing for one of Blunt's primary opponents, Chuck Purgason, where 79% of respondents weren't sure whether they had a favorable opinion or not. Purgason, who obviously isn't well known across the state, has had a tough time getting his campaign off the ground.

The survey's crosstabs reveal some truly interesting tidbits. For instance, Blunt picks up 5% of Barack Obama's supporters, but Carnahan picks up 10% of respondents who voted for John McCain in 2008. But independent voters are making an early swing to Blunt (44%) as opposed to Carnahan (32%), with 24% of independents undecided.

Missouri respondents also reported low approval for Obama, at 43 percent. That approval included the majority of liberals (83%) and moderates (57%) but few conservatives (14%). Statistical margins of error were not provided for sub-components of the survey.

The low approval of the president may have lingering effects on the Senate race next year, when Republicans are expected to generally have favorable electoral outcomes. If moderates and independent undecided voters swing toward Blunt, the race is over for Carnahan.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," Dean Debnam of PPP said. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."

PPP's pollsters also identified the race was already defined rigidly on partisan lines, no suprise to close watchers of the race.

Despite the presentation in the poll, Blunt must first win the Republican primary next summer before becoming the official nominee. Currently two other candidates--Purgason and Mark Memoly--are registered with the Federal Elections Commission to raise funds for the race.

The PPP poll was conducted between Nov. 13 and 15.

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PPP Poll Results

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