The race to replace term-limited Rep. Belinda Harris (D) in House District 110 so far includes three Democrats, including Harris' son.
The legislative district south of St. Louis includes parts of Franklin, Jefferson and Washington counties. It's also territory where Republicans perform strongly in general, despite Harris' four consecutive terms in the statehouse. The Senate districts covering District 110 are both held by Republicans -- State Sens. Kevin Engler (R-3) and John Griesheimer (R-26).
So whether Democrats are able to hold the seat in 2010 will depend on the viability and credentials of the Democratic nominee.
The Missouri Ethics Commissions shows three Democrats with reports filed from the most recent fundraising period, all with the 2010 race on their mind.
The Democratic candidates include Belinda Harris' son, Ben Harris, Jefferson County Commissioner Ed Kemp, and Franklin County building inspector Joe Detter.
Campaign Finance Reports
None of the campaigns had particularly strong fundraising support to report at the close of the last quarter.
Harris leads the cash-on-hand, after loaning his campaign $25,500 in personal funds. The only contribution reported during the period was an in-kind receipt from himself of $178. Nonetheless, Harris reported $25,210 cash-on-hand at the close of the period which greatly exceeds either of his challengers.
Kemp didn't actually report any receipts during the period, but did have the greatest disbursements totaling $3,184. At the end of the period Kemp reported $3,863 cash-on-hand and no debt.
The third candidate, Detter, reported $550 in receipts including one itemized contribution and an unreported number of other donations. At the end of the fundraising quarter Detter had $333 cash-on-hand and no debt.
District History
In the last two election cycles, Republicans didn't even field a candidate in this district, following a significant loss in 2004 and a sizeable margin of 11-points in Belinda Harris' first election in 2002, after she won a four-way primary.
Before Belinda Harris was elected, the district was represented by Francis Overschmidt (D), who was first elected in 1992.
This will be a race to watch as primary season heats up early next year. Presumably Republicans will field a strong candidate here, although none have yet filed paperwork with the Ethics Commission. For a year that's not likely to be generous to Democrats, this will also be a race to watch in the general election.
Related Links:
Ben Harris Campaign Finance Reports
Detter Campaign Finance Reports
Kemp Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
Tying eduction funding to gambling is a gamble of sorts, especially during times of economic turmoil. However, despite declining casino revenues, taxes are up for the 2010 fiscal year.
According to the latest report from the state Gaming Commission, casino revenues and patrons are all down compared to the same point in the last fiscal year.
In the first four months of the 2010 fiscal year, casinos had 8.2 million patrons, an 8 percent decline from 2009.
In terms of year-to-date gross revenues, Missouri casinos reported $555 million so far in FY 2010, a decline of $30 million, or 5 percent, from this point in FY 2009
In most industries, when base industries decline so too do receipts. In this case, however, receipts are actually up. So far casinos collected $35.8 million in admissions fees and paid $122.7 million in gaming taxes. In all, gaming tax receipts are up 10.6 percent, or $11 million. Admission fees are up just 3 percent, or $1 million.
90 percent of the state gaming tax goes to fund state education programs; the other 10 percent benefits activities in home dock jurisdictions. The admissions fees are split equally between the State Gaming Commission Fund and home dock jurisdictions.
Related Links:
Missouri Gaming Commission Monthly Financial Reports
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Summary only.
More gas isn't always so bad, especially when the gas is a leading indicator of economic recovery.
In Missouri, gasoline sales dropped by 4 percent in 2008 compared to one year earlier. While the percent may not initially seem large, it represents a loss of 157 million gallons of taxable gasoline.
To be clear, the loss in 2008 was a sign that Missourians traveled less than the preceding year, which cost firms beyond retail gas stations money and resulted in a loss of state revenue (those state revenues, by the way, are largely earmarked for highway construction).
Year-to-date, sales are down another 35 million gallons in 2009. But the trend is showing positive signs of recovery.
Sales tend to peak annually in June and September. In June 2009, peak sales were down, but followed in July but a sizable surge above the proportion of typical monthly sales.
In Sept., sales were only slightly below the pre-2008 average. In fact, the three month period from Jul. to Sept. saw year-over-year increases in sales.
At this point last year, just one month had year-over-year increases in sales. So far this year, four months are up.
We won't go as far as to say gas sales can accurately predict changes in other economic indicators, especially since the correlation between sales and employment is relatively low (r=0.13). But the trends are promising that recovery is on its way. As more people travel in the state, benefits are accrued not only by the retail gas sector, but also fast food firms, hotels, and other travel-related firms.
Related Links:
DOR Gasoline Sales Report
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Summary only.
Politico is calling Missouri's 2010 Senate race one of the top 10 to watch in the country. According to Politico's analysis today:
The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond offers Democrats one of their strongest pickup targets, as Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is almost certainly the strongest Democratic recruit of the cycle. Carnahan — the daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — has already taken in more than $3 million for the contest. Rep. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP whip, avoided a tough primary against former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, but he still faces an uphill general election battle.
FiveThirtyEight.com, written by sports statistician turned political analyst Nate Silver, lists Missouri as the number two race to watch. Per Nate's analysis:
Rasmussen has the race tied which is not bad news for Robin Carnahan considering that they've generally had pessimistic numbers for Democrats in this cycle. Not sure that Roy Blunt says "change" in what might be a fairly anti-establishment election. Then again, neither does Carnahan -- but you'd rather be a credible state-level official in this election than a member of Congress.
Related Links:
Politico Analysis
FiveThirtyEight.com Analysis
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Summary only.
In 2008, Rep. Denny Hoskins (R) defeated Jim Jackson (D) to represent House District 121 by less than a one-point margin.
Because just 122 votes separated the candidates in 2008, this is yet another race to closely watch in 2010.
Hoskins will be facing off for the chance to return to Jefferson City for a second term. Jackson, who ran for the seat several times before, has clearly indicated he's backing a political neophyte to replace him on the ballot. The newcomer to the race is Courtney Cole (D), a Warrensburg school teacher.
Cole is already proving a formidable candidate, outraising Hoskins in the last fundraising quarter.
District 121 Campaign Finances
Over the last quarter Hoskins reported receipts of $13,673. Of the itemized receipts, 57 percent came from an assortment of political committees including a $5,000 contribution from the political arm of the Missouri Society of Certified Public Accountants. Hoskins received 40 percent of the total itemized funds from individuals in Missouri through 27 individual donations, largely concentrated in the Kansas City region.
Hoskins reported total receipts for the election cycle of $16,723, $2,874 in debt, and $14,407 cash-on-hand.
Hoskins' likely challenger, Cole, formed a campaign fundraising committee one month into the last quarter. And that's why her fundraising totals are really surprising. Cole reported receipts of $16,045 during the quarter. While 32 percent of the total funds originated with political committees, the remaining funds came from 133 itemized contributions.
Cole has already picked up support from former candidate Jackson, Rep. Mike Talboy, Rep. Mary Still, and the Johnson County Central Democratic Committee. Countless other contributors are linked to the University of Central Missouri, where Cole's husband is a communications professor.
Cole's committee reported no debt and $2,503 in expenditures during the period.
In total, Cole reported $2,300 more in receipts for the period than Hoskins, not including newly incurred debt. This fundraising report is certain to invigorate the Hoskins campaign, which may have thought re-election was guaranteed. In the bellweather state of Missouri, nothing is certain -- especially in this district.
Historically the District has jumped between Democratic and Republican control. Prior to former Rep. David Pearce's (R) election in 2002 the district was represented for 10 years by former Rep. Deleta Williams (D).
For 2010, this is a race to watch.
Related Links:
Hoskins Campaign Website
Hoskins Campaign Finance Reports
Cole Campaign Website
Cole Campaign Finance Reports
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Summary only.
U.S. Sen. Kit Bond (R) is leaving the Senate in 2010, and like so many other retiring politicians these days, he wrote a book.
Bond's book, The Next Front, identifies southeast Asia as the next front in the war on terrorism. On Monday night Bond light-heartedly discussed the book on Jon Stewart's "Daily Show."
The discussion moved to several other issues, including healthcare.
Here are the clips:
Part 2
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Summary only.
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